Above, you can see some examples of what passes for polling these days. Those are snapshots of the Arizona Senate race from this exact week in 2024, showing some wild misses, including Marist’s. Marist yesterday did their “look at me” routine over Texas. Despite being critical of polling, I have a sober view of what elections may bring us this fall:

I am here to help candidates and campaigns win. I am in touch with one major U.S. Senate candidate on a nearly daily basis now over his race. I have produced serious analysis on the U.S. House races that will decide that chamber’s majority, and they have made their way all the way to the candidates and the top of the Republican Party. Still, I center my assessments on historical precedence and political reality, and don’t get caught up in all the noise and “red wave” cheerleading that defies reality.

The goal of a midterm with your party’s president in office is survival. Should Democrats win the House (or even the Senate) in November, many people will go off the ledge, thinking the MAGA movement is dead or giving up hope for the good fight of liberty. In reality, a Democrat majority will arguably do more to advance the MAGA agenda and strengthen the likely Vance/Rubio (or Rubio/Vance) ticket in 2028 than defying the odds and holding the House will. Imagine what they’ll do:

• Convene investigative panels and committees to go after Trump on personal issues, made-up financial affairs, and now, Iranian military action

• Impeach Trump multiple times, despite being unable to secure a conviction in the Senate

• Hold up all of Trump’s popular legislative ideas, which he will almost certainly lob at them just so they screw themselves

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Stop worrying about impeachment and removal. If it didn’t happen after J6, it won’t happen. The effort to impeach Bill Clinton backfired on the Republican Party, and my guess is that Trump’s economy will boom in the last two years of his tenure, as it has already shown some signs of doing with expected Q3 growth. Aircraft carriers take a long time to turn around, and that is not something a society mired in instant gratification wants to hear.

Still, the question remains - can we fix this politically? Can America be set on a pathway to success, see evil-doers punished, be rid of political and institutional corruption using the political process? I tire of seeing anonymous wannabe revolutionaries online and have begun to clap back:

You only have two choices regarding America’s current issues: Fix the political process or commence the process of abolishing government that Thomas Jefferson detailed. For the written record, I do not endorse “the big ugly” that the latter point entails, and think people of good faith must first put shoulder to plow to fix the political process. Are we doing that? Let us examine together:

THREE SIGNS WE DON’T “GET IT”

I. Checked Out and Asleep at the Wheel

You and I “get it.” You read this newsletter because you have interest in American politics and presumably prefer the first option listed above, which is to engage in fixing American politics. 34,000 email addresses get this newsletter, and I am ranked in the Top 100 in the U.S. politics genre for paid subscriptions, which constitute less than 10% of my email list. There are precincts in Pima County, Arizona, that register more votes tallied in a presidential election than there are paid subscribers to my newsletter.

I have 85,000 followers on X. There are nearly that many Democrat presidential votes in Pinal County, Arizona, which Kamala Harris lost by 22.1%. The problem here is that we, the people who pay attention to this stuff, think everyone feels the same way or considers the same issues we fret over to be existential issues. It is a huge world out there, and my Dad always said, “10% of the people lead the way; 90% are just along for the ride.”

You may not realize it, but there are a lot of people who have no idea an election is even upon us. We are aware of this unfortunate fact (that people don’t realize an election is coming up) because we are busy as hell trying to win reelection in the Arizona House:

Let me explain why midterms usually hurt the president’s party in layman’s terms:

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It was badly needed, because the Democrats smell blood in the water and are looking to flip both the House and Senate chambers by running right through LD-17. The district looks good on paper, but runs far to the left of party registration because of a few key spots in the district loaded with voters who represent a brand of Republican voter at odds with the grassroots brand - which Rachel comes from, and which President Trump most definitely comes from. To top it off, Arizona is one of a few states that has two representatives per district, meaning it’s difficult to throw a punch without messing up the ranking of candidates and thereby imperiling your own election (or that of your running mate). All the candidates run in the same field of four, and not in separate races for Seat A or Seat B.

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Rachel and her old seatmate, Cory McGarr, won in the 2022 election alongside the Katie Hobbs gubernatorial rig-job, by beating two Democrat newcomers in what was then a freshly drawn district:

McGarr was a great legislator, and both GOP candidates ran for reelection in 2024. Enter what is known as a single shot - when the underdog party runs one candidate. This concentrates all the Democrat vote on one guy (or gal), and any independents looking to split a ticket have just one choice of Democrat. It works in reverse for Republicans in blue-leaning districts, and that is exactly how Michelle Pena got elected in LD-23. Unfortunately, Gary Garcia Snyder refuses to drop his candidacy alongside her in LD-23 this year and will almost certainly cost Republicans Pena’s seat, and potentially the majority.

In 2024, Democrats single shotted a candidate named Kevin Volk, whose family is well-known in the Tucson business community, and the results came out like this:

Volk elected, Rachel reelected, and McGarr on the outside looking in. LD-17 was the only district out of 30 statewide in which President Trump ran left of his 2020 numbers (in a state that had a terrible 2020 election, mind you); the Arizona GOP expanded its majorities in both the State Senate and State House nevertheless. Volk has a problem this year:

He is joined on the ticket by Holly Lyon, a retired Air Force officer who has run for the legislature before, albeit in a much redder district than LD-17. She ran slightly ahead of Volk in the primary, which doesn’t predict much because it will come down to how many Republicans run left of normal, and how non-partisans in a few key precincts split tickets. Rachel ran behind McGarr substantially in the 2024 primaries because another female Republican mounted a primary challenge, and the results shook out differently with a full electorate in November.

So - no more single shot. There will be no more sole concentration of all Democrat votes on one candidate, with no capacity to receive all independent votes looking for a split ticket to one Democrat. Democrats got greedy in LD-4 after a successful single shot in 2022, and the GOP took both seats in 2024 in the most dangerous electoral turf that suburbia has to offer in Maricopa County:

With the single shot off the table, and from feedback from the cigar room, the consensus is that Republicans are likely to win both House seats in LD-17 this year, despite Hobbs appearing to be on her way to reelection and the standard winds of a midterm environment. Rachel’s running mate this time is John Winchester, born and raised in Tucson and someone deeply connected to institutions and organizations. We didn’t know what to think of Winchester when he announced for the race, but we’ve come to like him and believe that he, a traditional conservative, and Rachel, the populist firebrand, make a strong pair that thoroughly represents the range of modern Republican politics that should go on to serve in Phoenix together.

Now, let me show you, with greatly enhanced odds of a double GOP victory in LD-17 on the table from two years ago, what the corrupt system is doing to game this race:

Powerful lobbies indeed - organizations from Phoenix and throughout the state - are looking to throw Rachel overboard and promote a purple ticket to persuade voters to elect a Winchester/Volk ticket. Let it be known before I move the balance of this article for paid subscribers - Rachel has already gone to Winchester with this, and he said, “I don’t want my face on anything with Volk’s.” We are at peace with whatever happens in November, but would at least appreciate a straight shot without having to wade through political minefields laid by special interests.

This level of outside support in our elections, despite its aims, has unpredictable impact. It could do what it intends and force a split ticket aiding Winchester and saving Volk, or it could backfire and piss off the substantial grassroots base of LD-17 - forcing members to single shot in favor of Rachel - which we do not want because the goal is to win both seats.

Detailing the Outside Impact on the LD-17 Race and Why Voters Hate It

Let me connect the dots and expand on how our elections are rigged to benefit the few:

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This newsletter strives for accuracy and will “own it” when I get something wrong. Several years ago, I wrote a piece outlining why Ron DeSantis wouldn’t run for president. That prediction was incorrect, and I owned it! Likewise, in my “Ten Bold Predictions for 2025,” I predicted the Trump 47 White House would come to terms on Greenland. Turns out I missed it, but only by one year!

VI. The United States Will Agree to Terms to Acquire New Arctic Interests

I hope all talk of Canadian statehood ends at trolling, because such a thingwould cripple all hope of any sort of America First future for our country. It is also right out of The Art of the Deal to ask for a mile while knowing you only want 100 yards, which makes the other side of the negotiation happy to give away.

I don’t think President Trump has any real interest in what Canadian statehood would add to the current United States, or our economic aspirations. I believe all talk about Canada and Greenland is aimed at giving the United States leverage in the race for Arctic dominance. I will likely write an article soon about my experience serving under the U.S. Army Alaska Command in 2012-13, when this subject was beginning to boil over into national debate of great strategic importance.

The Arctic, which Andrew Jackson also had interest in, serves as a strategic logistical and deterrence point atop the world. Neocons would seek to use such a point for their own purposes related to interventionism, but if used properly, it would be a pivotal military position. I would not expect anything as major as the entire Canadian nation achieving statehood, or the annexation of all of Greenland, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the incoming administration strikes a deal to take control of the Yukon and/or Northwest Territories, or a portion of northern Greenland, with all parties involved in the transaction assured of mutual economic and military benefits.

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Yesterday, President Trump announced that he had reached a deal with Greenland and Denmark (Greenland’s clingy boyfriend from back home who never comes to visit at college but keeps her on the phone on Friday and Saturday nights so she can’t see anyone else) that gives the United States full military and security control over Greenland.

No other countries will have access to the world’s largest island, which will include not only military considerations, but also access to its vast natural wealth without U.S. approval. Granted, the United States could have asserted military control over Greenland by simply landing a dozen planes and ships loaded with a few battalions of infantry. For sake of comparison, check out the British bloodless invasion of Iceland in 1940. They went up there and said, “our island for now,” because the next event would have been a German takeover. Greenland, just like Iceland, has no real means of resisting such a power grab.

Still, with the consent of both Greenland and Iceland, things will be much smoother and you won’t have a small but effective group of subversives working against us as we build infrastructure. Was Greenland important? You tell me.

• Largest island in the world

• Resources continuously discovered with melting ice

• Gold, oil, natural gas, zinc, graphite, copper, nickel, rare earth elements

• “Strategic advantage”

Many presidents since Andrew Jackson have eyed Greenland as key to U.S. interests. Now we are positioned for the world of the future thanks to the foresight of the Trump 47 administration, which continues to make lasting changes despite the constant noise and interference from a corrupt judiciary and even the members of his own party. Don’t allow the constant drumbeat of negativity to drown out these significant, world-shaping events.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Let’s take a walk down memory lane to summer 2024. At the RNC and throughout the campaign season, Donald Trump and his campaign surrogates promised to carry out the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States. Here are RNC delegates in Milwaukee brandishing the proof of this marketing operation:

Here is left-wing NPR whining about mass deportations:

SHAPIRO: So to the promises that Donald Trump made last night, one of the things he said was mass deportations. What would that mean?

GARSD: The Trump campaign has been going really hard on that promise. There’s over 10 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S., and the reality is the U.S. doesn’t have the manpower to deport all those people. It would require a massive investment. It would also create a hole in the economy.

It is well-documented that the Trump campaign ran hardcore on mass deportations. How did Hispanics, almost all of Mexican ancestry, in South Texas respond?

Trump won Hispanic South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley and the Laredo area, by margins that would have boggled the mind of any analyst in 2012, when Obama won the region even bigger than he did in 2008. Trump won counties, like Webb, that hadn’t been red in more than a century, and some, like Starr, that had never voted Republican under their current boundaries. Trump took over 55% of the Latino vote in Texas, cruised to a landslide unmatched for 36 years in Florida, won Passaic County in New Jersey, Imperial County in California, and shifted the Latino population hard to the right everywhere they are to be found in significant numbers.

While campaigning on mass deportations.

If you read the chatter heads on X, you’ll see plenty of almost always anonymous accounts whining about the deportation operation as if someone can snap their fingers and run everyone out of town. They say we aren’t going to hit our numbers and the country will be doomed, despite proof from think tanks somberly stating that the foreign-born population under Trump 47 is plummeting for the first time in many decades. So, which one is it? The Trump administration isn’t doing anything about deportations, or we are acting in such Draconian fashion that we are going to lose Latinos who heard the man say “mass deportations” and responded with a modern-day Latino record vote share not even Dubya could pull off in Texas and Florida?

Someone tell Maria Elvira Salazar:

Salazar is a useless Republican who gets elected on the “female Latina Republican” gimmick in South Florida. She is a miserable squish who will sell out the President’s agenda to save her own ass, which didn’t work out for her in 2018, when she was unceremoniously canned for a Democrat. Clearly she made her way back to Washington, as her type usually does, but she doesn’t know her rear end from a hole in the ground. From Salazar’s video:

“The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. You can be for immigration what Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism. I'm not talking about giving them amnesty. I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land.”

Salazar and her cocktail-hour consultants are listening to left-wing media bits about how Hispanics must feel about “mass deportations,” despite what the historic election results say. The media are recreating the 1994 campaign against California Governor Pete Wilson, who championed Proposition 187 (which passed) in the state and was portrayed as anti-Latino and anti-immigrant, which brainwashed Latinos into swaying heavily toward Democrats for decades (still persisting). Videos ran non-stop highlighting “heavy handed” immigration enforcement operations and the damage was done. That was then, this is now.

Don’t bother telling Salazar or the lobby-owned GOP space-fillers in Washington, D.C., who stand to benefit from the perpetuation of a national crisis. America cannot sustain the rate of demographic change brought upon the country by immigration of all types - legal and illegal, especially with a judiciary that betrays the American citizen:

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Then, just as today, I preferred primitive methods of analyzing intelligence. I wanted to see it on a physical map and plot it on a pattern analysis wheel. I didn’t need the power to work for my products to come to life. Early on in our tour in Afghanistan, we got rocketed. No one was injured, but we took note that it was the 15th of the month, exactly. The next month, another rocket, and on the 15th. This pattern continued, and the points of origin were all similar - from a village to our south. After a few months went by, I mentioned to the commander that we had developed an ironclad case that the enemy was likely being paid to launch one rocket at us every month. History was my guide.

We were ready the next time around, and one of our Apache teams blew the little bastard straight to hell. That was the end of the rocket attacks on Shindand Air Base, and First Lieutenant Keshel played a role in snuffing them out:

Now I deal with an even more dangerous and nefarious enemy - the modern incarnation of the Democrat Party. They wage war not with Chinese rockets, but with lies, deceit, ballot fraud, and practically every institution in the world in their back pockets. It is incumbent upon me, the intelligence officer, to use all methodologies available to me to help those in the fight (like the Apaches that took the shot to end our rocket attack problem) know when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em.

The world obsesses over polling, and I’ve written so many virtual words about that topic that we could piece together my second book based solely on these rants. Still, the greatest indicator of future performance remains past performance. You can throw all of these stupid polls out, and what you’re going to be left with to help understand the baseline of the 2026 midterms are two things:

• Historical midterm results since 1934

• The 2018 midterm elections, specifically

The first reminds the observer that the president’s party has lost seats in the U.S. House in 20 of 23 midterms since 1934, for an average loss of 27 seats. Those results also show Senate losses in 16 of 23, but the fate of the Senate rests on which seats are in play. Simply put, knowing about the challenges facing a sitting president in midterms and expecting a wave election favoring his party is like not packing winter clothes when invading Russia. It’s stupid.

The second, the focus on 2018, is where true specificity kicks in. The 2022 midterm, held under a Democrat president, produced different headwinds than we can expect this year based on 92 years of history (like I tell my kids, history has already happened and doesn’t change, so learn it). It is not relevant to margins in House races in 2024, nor will it be in 2026. 2014 was Obama’s final accounting and more of a bloodbath than he faced in 2010, his first midterm. 2018 is our itch to scratch, and it tells us a lot about the shifting of coalitions in America taking place at the onset of the Trump era. This brings us good and bad news, as you will read.

Let’s look at the bad news first:

Republicans gained three seats - MN-1, MN-8, and PA-14. Minnesota continued with its 2016 coalition shift, giving the GOP two Republican seats vacated by the Democrats that held them, and Pennsylvania faced a brand new map ordered by the courts. Other than that, it was a dismal election (not counting the Senate, which featured a net GOP gain). Not one incumbent Democrat was defeated by a Republican.

Democrat incumbents are shielded this year as well, and I think only four have a risk of losing:

• Don Davis in NC-1 (Republican leaner)

• Kathy Castor in FL-14 (Republican leaner)

• Marcy Kaptur in OH-9 (decisive seat)

• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in WA-3 (decisive seat)

Democrats won 13 open seats that were won by Republicans concurrent with Trump in 2016, and knocked off 30 incumbents. There were some losses in rural-heavy seats that had no business being losses, like IA-1, NM-2, and SC-1, but by and large, one particular group killed the GOP’s House majority:

The people who had no issue voting against Barack Obama twice, but once a tough-talking New Yorker became the face of the Republican Party - the duty to repel Democrats became optional. We were forced to obsess over the new shock term, suburban women, and listen to virtue signaling and pearl clutching from high income, college educated voters. Basically the same people who have been whining about Bo French for four days.

Someone needs to explain it to me, because I make good money, have an MBA, wrote a bestselling book, and have an extensive library yet my hatred of the Democrat agenda and its enablers has only intensified as I’ve gotten older. Either way, suburban voters absolutely crushed Paul Ryan’s majority…but they did me the future favor of giving me all the warning signs so I can properly prepare for this year.

Here is how they warned us:

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Everything is bigger there. The state has its own appeal and attitude, and is always thought of as most likely to secede. Of course, Texas was once its own country. You can read all of these Texas legends in a great 1,100-page book I once willed my way through, James Michener’s Texas:

Near the end of the book, as the story reaches the 1980s, Texas’s transformation from “Solid South” Democrat state to Republican stronghold is documented. This happened overnight at the presidential level, and took three decades to fully click over into the state legislature. Democrats lost their legislative power in the early aughts, and haven’t won any statewide election in Texas since 1994 - when Dubya knocked Ann Richards out of the governor’s mansion.

Since then, Texas has been written off as a GOP cakewalk for political observers. Democrats have responded with their own PR playbook, fantasizing over polling and insisting that because of “demographic change,” Texas is destined to become the next California. What they actually mean by that is that they are thrilled about their plan to displace the percentage of non-Hispanic white voters with not only Hispanics, but many unassimilable foreign groups that will give birth to American citizens while here on our soil.

Despite having no mishaps since the 1994 streak, now believed to sit at 189 consecutive wins, there have been some uncomfortable margins recently. In 2018, Democrats gave it their best shot in the Senate, as Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke fought Ted Cruz, who ran one of the laziest campaigns in American history, inside three points (the same year Ken Paxton won reelection as Attorney General by less than four points against a relative nobody). Abbott pancaked his no-name Democrat opponent that year, but 2018 was the best shot for Democrats in over two decades at getting back in the game because it was the first GOP president’s midterm for someone not named Dubya since Texas became a hardcore red state free of “blue dog” Democrats.

Then came the 2020 presidential election, marred by COVID-19 and cheating, which kept Trump to a 5.6% margin of victory - the closest in a Texas presidential race since 1996. I met with AG Paxton to discuss that dubious result in 2021, which both of us believe is one that makes no sense. Biden somehow finished with nearly 600,000 more votes than Trump won the state with in 2016, and cleared 5.25 million votes when no Democrat presidential candidate had ever even received 4 million previously. But since Trump won the state anyway, it didn’t get enough attention.

Now Paxton is in the fight for his political life against a rat-faced, communist candidate named James Talarico who is so weird, he makes Austin look like a rigid society of straight-laced businessmen reading newspapers on the train to work. Against a candidate who believes a welcome mat should be on the border of Texas, that the standard Democrat list of scary guns should be banned from private ownership, and that there are specifically six genders. The fight for his political life - as we are led to believe by practically every damn poll coming out right now:

Now, you all should know how I feel about polling. I am not here to dissect more polls, because they are getting dumber and dumber:

The real poll will be revealed on November 3, and as I’ve written previously, Texas polling usually understates Republican support - often in grand fashion. Still, paired with 2018, 2026 represents the next great chance for Democrats to fluke their way into an upset we absolutely do not need to happen. If you want to start passing blame, don’t blame the president. I believe he put Texas on its pathway for political salvation by destroying more than a decade’s worth of Democrat inroads in one evening:

This is the person you should be blaming:

John Cornyn, whose staffers are joining Talarico’s campaign because they can’t process the Texas-sized ass-whipping they were dealt in the May run-off against Paxton. That’s the guy - the one with practically zero modern credentials who is now looking to break all the toys and stomp off because he couldn’t convince GOP voters to give him a fifth trip to Washington, D.C. Maybe because they saw that he had his worst voting record during Trump’s first term and only plays “conservative” when a Democrat is in office?

Lest I get stuck ripping on the Bush establishment, I’m going to move on to modern-day Texas and the challenges it presents. Florida, stunningly, despite its urban build and huge population influx, is in a league of its own. I write about voter registration by party every month, and Florida is becoming exactly what Texas became several decades ago - an impenetrable GOP fortress.

This is not a blue Texas scare I’m issuing here. I’m not really a believer in that; however, politics is a constantly shifting landscape that requires diligence and an understanding of the enemy’s playbook if you want to win. These three considerations are the most crucial for understanding why Texas is no longer a 20-point romp, and sits just one election cycle away from upending the national map as we know it:

I. Big Tech, Big Expansion

There are four major metro counties that impact elections in Texas. Democrats would like to see El Paso expand significantly and become the fifth, but the current kingmakers are Harris, Dallas, Travis, and Bexar Counties. In order to win Texas, Democrats need huge margins in all four, then need to have the following impacts on these six:

• Fort Bend County - win by 15% or more (suburban Houston)

• Montgomery County - lose by less than 35% (suburban Houston)

• Tarrant County - win by more than 5% (Fort Worth and suburbs)

• Collin County - flip narrowly (suburban Dallas)

• Denton County - lose by less than 5% (suburban Dallas-Fort Worth)

• Williamson County - win narrowly (suburban Austin)

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In the 2000 presidential election (Bush +21.3%), these ten counties accounted for 53.4% of the vote. In 2024, that number rose to 57.2% as Texas’s population boom persisted:

An increase of 3.8% may not seem so extreme for 10 counties, which added nearly 3.1 million votes collectively, but they spawn entirely new suburban and exurban counties as they push the older population further away. That’s where you get Parker (my old home county), Ellis, Hays, Bastrop, Johnson, Brazoria, and Kaufman Counties from. Without those exurban counties, the electoral terrain in Texas gets a lot tougher. Roughly 90% of the vote in Texas is urban and suburban (or exurban). The frontiers you read about in the novels are vastly disappearing from electoral significance.

When I was a young Army officer stationed at Fort Hood starting in 2009, Austin was the “cool spot” many of my peers spent their free time in. As the numbers above demonstrate, it was much smaller back then, and the political makeup was roughly 55D/45R. It had your Willie Nelson-style hippies and an arts and music scene, but also the quiet feel of an overlooked capital. The 2010s sent Travis County and Austin into the stratosphere, and it was a self-inflicted wound. Texas promoted the hell out of its capital city, and the communists infested it like locusts. It is no longer a Willie Nelson vibe there, but a Che Guevara one. Travis County gave Barack Obama a margin of less than 93,000 votes over Mitt Romney in 2012; in 2020, Biden beat Trump by over 274,000.

Read that again - in eight years, the Democrat presidential margin swelled by three times in raw terms. That was a self-inflicted wound, and largely due to the mass expansion of big tech. Company after company has cashed in on Texas’s business environment and brought their hardcore leftist employees with them, as well as droves of visa holders. They have turned Austin into something much more like the Bay Area than the “live and let live” culture they act like they have. They are downright hostile, and the white leftists there love Talarico, who dominated the Democrat primary in Travis County and the surrounding area. They will produce a near-presidential turnout there in November, and AG Paxton will essentially start out a quarter million in the hole and need to get makeup margins elsewhere. Democrats are likely to be pushing presidential margins of +400,000 by 2032, despite Trump’s marginal improvements in Travis County in 2024.

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Katie Hobbs is slowly but surely moving toward reelection.

Yes, the frumpy, uninspiring social worker from hell with nine political lives, who came back from the electoral dead to “win” the Secretary of State office in 2018 after her Republican opponent was called the winner on Election Night (allowing her to run the corrupt 2020 election in the state), and who, in that position, ran her own election for governor against Kari Lake (also ripped off with mail-in ballots and counting games)… is about to get reelected in a race that isn’t shaping up to be all that close.

Now, I’m not believing all the Janet Napolitano-level polling out there. Polarization alone guarantees there will be no 2006 repeat, and with that, should rule out any chance Hobbs wins by 13%, or whatever insane margin some of Arizona’s most ludicrous pollsters are publishing. Arizona is also too red, and Hobbs too unpopular, for a legitimate blowout.

This is exactly why I am so disappointed watching the race for Arizona governor play out. In December, I published a lengthy analysis outlining how unlikely a Hobbs reelection appeared based on 102 years of registration data. Only 2 Democrat gubernatorial candidates had retroactive performances that could have overwhelmed the current GOP registration advantage in the state. Here’s an excerpt:

I have party registration figures back to 1924 in Arizona. The state ran gubernatorial races every two years until 1970, when it moved to a quadrennial format. The only gubernatorial years without party registration figures are 1942 and 1944. The Arizona Republican Party took over the voter registration advantage in the state in 1986 and has never once relinquished it. Prior to then, it had been voting Republican for President (no misses) since 1952, but still playing ball with Democrat governors and Senators.

In 33 of 35 hypothetical matchups with today’s party registration figures, Katie Hobbs loses the governorship. The only historical exceptions would be:

• Bruce Babbitt (1982 reelection) - popular incumbent running in a Reagan recession midterm (pre-boom), had important accomplishments on water management and healthcare, and prosecuted land fraud; ran 27.6% left of D+2.4% party registration advantage in a 30% blowout of a weak Republican and strong libertarian vote stealer.

• Janet Napolitano (2006 reelection) - a pragmatic moderate who only slipped up after becoming part of team Obama, impossible to beat from the get-go with a high approval rating; ran against weak Republican challenger and beat him from the right by deploying the National Guard to deal with the border emergency. Ran 33.4% left of R+6.2% party registration advantage and won every county. The performance against the registration count, 576,764 left of the R+160,462 advantage, is the only one of 35 performances strong enough to top the current R+328,534 advantage.

Notably, Napolitano would have lost in 2002 (when she won by +1.0%) with the current GOP registration advantage.

What I did not know at the time I wrote that article is how Biggs’s campaign would never really even get going and wait until the fourth quarter to open the playbook. People have been waiting for it to get moving in earnest for a solid year, and now we are two months out and still waiting for the gloves to come off. Sure, we aren’t helped by the late primary, and David Schweikert’s vanity campaign ensured zero party unity would be possible until the end of July. With the changes in state registration and the conversion of the Latino working class in increasing numbers away from Democrats and toward the GOP, combined with Biggs’s on-paper attributes, I’m utterly stunned that everyone and their mother expects Hobbs to be reelected, with the GOP praying to Heaven above that they’ll hold at least one chamber of the legislature to sideline Hobbs 2.0.

Biggs is a sitting Congressman with a higher margin of victory than President Trump in AZ-5. He’s born and raised in Tucson, and a well-known resident of Maricopa County. He’s soft-spoken and non-threatening, but he also has a very Trumpy voting record and is great for policy. He’s also a Mormon, in a state with a very influential Mormon Republican voting bloc that has recently been the reason, in the age of Trump/Lake populism, that Maricopa County even bends close enough to steal through the mail.

What the hell is going on?

Let me explain what I can. Arizona has an attachment problem with governors. The state hasn’t fired one that ran for reelection since 1966, and has never fired a governor since the job became a four-year gig in 1970. The voters prioritize stability, and despite her reputation as the “veto queen” and clear progressive credentials, clearly don’t perceive her as the existential threat she actually is.

That is on the Biggs campaign.

When I was an Army officer in 2012, I was absolutely confident Mitt Romney would trounce Barack Obama, incumbency be damned. 2008 was a sugar high, I said. Everyone I knew hated Obama, I thought. Romney was clearly more polished, sharper, better, and presented better policies, and given a two-party system, the choice was clear. He pummeled Obama in the first debate, and then came the struggle.

He was accused of racism, got shoved aside like a rag doll by Candy Crowley at the next debate, and forgot to go on offense at all while believing his own polls. Romney’s internals had him dead even or winning Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa. All of those states landed with a thud for him, and so went the 2012 election and an opportunity to shed Obama, who himself lost over three million votes from his previous run.

Romney failed to paint the picture of the existential threat of an unchecked, second Obama term.

As a result, the people stuck with the status quo, and the segment of the electorate that elected Trump in 2016 (the white working-class) stayed home in states that would have put Romney over the top. These voters turned out and changed sides in 2016, which is why I say two-time Obama voters in the Midwest elected Donald J. Trump in 2016.

Right now, Andy Biggs’s campaign is failing to paint the picture of why Katie Hobbs is an existential threat. Yes, I realize Hobbs is awash in cash and doesn’t need to consider campaign funding when flooding digital advertisements to every market. I’m a hard right-wing voter in a torch red precinct, yet the YouTube app that plays music in my home gym has a Hobbs ad damn near every commercial break. She’s not even sticking to targeting purple areas - she’s going for the jugular.

Meanwhile, I accompanied Rachel to an event in Saddlebrooke on Wednesday afternoon. The guest speaker was former State Senator Sine Kerr (see-na), who is the GOP nominee for the newly created position of Lieutenant Governor, running on the same ballot line as Biggs as a ticket. Sine is smart, polished, and the kind of non-flashy candidate our pearl-clutching voters in affluent suburban areas should like, but the campaign is essentially invisible and chalks it up to the fundraising disparities. I stepped out in the hall to talk to the local Turning Point representative, and a gentleman from Oro Valley passed us by. The Turning Point representative told him Sine Kerr was speaking, and despite our friend from Oro Valley being a local GOP club leader, he said, “Who’s that?”

When local GOP club leads don’t know who the Lieutenant Governor candidate even is, we have a much bigger issue than reaching the much dramatized and over-glorified “independents” everyone salivates for. We aren’t even making the case to Republican base voters, and here is the case:

Katie Hobbs is an existential threat to Arizona. Seeking reelection, she has sought to maintain an image centered on moderation and will occasionally tout measures related to border security she had no choice but to enact, and will champion tax cuts that were forced on her by the GOP legislature as if they were her own doing. With no reelection on the table after 2026, and with a Democrat legislature (which they have a legitimate shot at winning for the first time in six decades), Arizona will become unlivable and trend like Colorado. Every progressive wishlist item will be fulfilled, and in the next two decades, the population of Arizona will crater.

Thursday, Biggs finally announced some attack ads against Hobbs:

We have only been waiting on this for 18 months, a time in which everyone knew he would be the GOP nominee and when the campaign should have already been in general election mode instead of worrying about David Schweikert, who was nuked so badly in the primary he may not even be allowed to speak at a Republican club again.

We know Arizona governors get reelected, for whatever reason. Therefore, the steady state of running a Mitt Romney-style decency campaign doing everything it can to not offend people who are perpetually offended, is to lose this election by four or five points. Good game, nice try, “incumbents just win here,” see you in four years. Here’s your 1.2 million votes, but there’s her 1.4 million ballots because they know how to collect them over the course of a month.

What this means is that the only way to shake these trends is to go scorched earth, spend every last dollar approaching the low propensity Trump voter (not 4/4 GOP voters in front of Republican clubs in counties that will be won by 30 points) while peeling away some of the Latino working class she needs, and expose the extent of Hobbs’s corruption and her true goals to transform Arizona into another locked-down progressive hub. We are not going scorched Earth at all, because whoever is running this campaign at the highest levels buys all of the media about how Kari Lake hurt everyone’s feelings and alienated the precious moderates.

It is possible, in taking my advice, that alienating the moderates may actually happen and turn a five-point Hobbs “incumbents always win” reelection into a comfortable win nearing double digits, but it is a guarantee that playing the “please don’t call me a radical” Romney campaign will do exactly what it did to Mitt in 2012: lead to the default outcome. Imagine you’re a run-heavy football team and you find yourself down 17 points in the second half. Throwing the football may lead to turnovers and a 30-point loss; but you don’t have enough time to establish the run and now have to open up the playbook to have a chance.

That’s where the Biggs campaign is today.

I did not like writing this article. I will probably missed out on future consulting opportunities I already don’t have, but what I dislike even more is leaving people in the dark as to what is going on in the political world around them. I’ve offered to consult for the campaign. I didn’t offer what they’re looking for; therefore, my advice comes for free on a Saturday. Ballots are out in less than a month, and if the electorate isn’t afraid of four more years of Hobbs, then four more years of Hobbs is exactly what we will get, with Arizona looming large for the future of the United States as one of last beacons of hope in the entire American Southwest.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

_{Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.}

I’m a couple months shy of 42 years old. Still young, by most accounts, especially in the world of politics. But when a lot of you started following my work, I was 36. When you have a brain wired like a calculator, these exercises in age-pegging can become exhausting. Everyone has been talking about how it has been one-quarter of a century since 9/11. People who were my age on that day are now almost 67 years old. I am now at my halfway point between 17, when 9/11 went down, and 67. How can it be?

Recently, I’ve begun to ask questions related to purpose and mission that are common for people making their way through their forties. Not all of these questions are productive, but when I rattle everything around between my ears and sit with people who know me, it remains clear there is nowhere to go but through the obstacles that sit in our way as Americans. I am convinced far too many still don’t understand the gravity of what it is we Americans must understand in order to reform society in a way far bigger than how election results come to pass.

Sometimes, people become so fatigued by the constant strife of the political discourse in America that they resign themselves to simply getting by. Like I’ve said many times from the stage, you are very likely to have a nice life and “get by,” especially if you’re 50 or older, like most of my readers are. Your kids may, depending where they live, even share the same fortune. Your grandkids will not. The bill for our country’s corruption and mangled spiritual state is coming due, fast. I know many Republicans in my personal life who have thrown in the towel and stomped off from engaging at all.

The question becomes, “Is the fight worth the pain?”

If Republicans sustain losses in keeping with 92 years of midterm history this November, you’ll be able to cut the negativity with a knife. Going on X will be like crawling over broken glass. Many will suggest it represents a loss of everything it means to be American, a surrender of everything fought for, and a sign that the Republic is doomed for good. Now, not then, is the time to resolve yourself to “find your hill” and dig in.

Now let me share with you a story that is near and dear to my heart.

26 June 2010

Dear Son:

Glad to hear you are settled in at your new station. After a long trip like that it takes some time to readjust.

Exposure to some of the world’s great sh*tholes gives a man a new understanding of how much we Americans have and too frequently take for granted as well.

I had been in Afghanistan for only a few days when Dad penned that note, and received it in early July. For those of you unfamiliar with my story, when I shipped out to the combat zone, my father was dying of pancreatic cancer. Saying goodbye, knowing he still had time on the clock, remains the most significant pain in my life and as real to me today as the keys beneath my fingertips as I type this. Dad had recently found faith in Christ and despite his affliction, was a changed man - much different than the battle-hardened, three-tour Vietnam veteran who was impossible to please for so many years as I grew up.

Now he wanted to build me up. All the way until he succumbed to the disease in early September, he was deliberate in being there for me, offering me important advice, and conveying to me the kind of humor a man needs to get through the hardest trials in life.

Read the last line of this note to me again:

…how much we Americans have and too frequently take for granted as well…

Have you ever stopped and looked around at how easy our lives are? Even those of us aware of the many political and societal problems America has, including the considerable corruption of all three branches of government, should understand that we have more gifts, more blessings, than any other people on Earth. Rachel and I have done some international travel since we’ve been married - the kind in which people aren’t shooting rockets at you. At first, I struggled with figuring out what to do in some of these places. After all, how many pieces of bread can a man eat, or how many tiny coffees should one consume?

Then it struck me - the value of traveling abroad for an American should be to prompt one to take inventory of the many things our country has going for it. It should remind you why so many people have crossed oceans and impassable terrain to have a shot at one day becoming American. We have been to countries that were once powerful empires, but are now rotting crusts of what was once a majestic culture. The moods of the people reflect the decay, and all sense of national pride and identity appears erased in favor of the encroaching stench of global cosmopolitanism.

How should you feel about 9/11 twenty-five years after those events went down? That’s not for me to decide. For years, I’ve posted the same things everyone else has. What I was doing when I heard about it, how I felt, and marked every significant anniversary deliberately. 9/11 represents death and downfall, and one that swept into our country at the very outset of the 21st century. This was going to be our century fully, until then. That event, despite some of the resilience we saw for a short time, sent our country stumbling out of the gate and chasing ghosts all over the world. We sacrificed so much liberty in the name of security and invested so much blood and treasure in unwinnable conflicts that we are now on the ropes, with rival nations doing all they can to ensure Americans suffer under incompetent leadership so they can surpass us in all things. Make no mistake - China is on pace to surpass us as the top global superpower if we handle the next quarter-century like we did the last one.

If you want some of my personal takes on the 9/11 anniversary, here is a clip from my Wednesday appearance on The Dan Bongino Show:

The fool that Bongino addresses when we get into my X post about 9/11 can’t possibly understand the deeper meaning behind that event. He wasn’t even alive, and thanks to the clout afforded by social media, can’t help but inject idiocy into the public discourse. 9/11 did indeed represent death and downfall, but when you adjust your perspective, it also represented resurrection - if only for a while. The fragility of life, just like when you observe it from middle age, changed the way people engaged with the world and with one another. If only for a while.

The choice about how to respond to the historical reality of 9/11 is up to you. Should you choose to dwell in the death of 9/11, then it was indeed a funeral for the American future. It was the catalyst to many of the “Fourth Turning” events we’ve lived through as we struggled and failed to catch our footing. Should you choose to focus on the life-giving lessons of 9/11, then it serves as a reason for your mission.

If you choose to measure your purpose based on how many wins the Republican Party piles up, then you will always be disappointed. You will chart defeats as verdicts against your divine calling, and you will even be left feeling flat by the majorities elected that proceed to do nothing but disappoint, like a Senate unwilling to pass a piece of election-related legislation that three-quarters of Americans support.

Life, and your mission, are about much more than political outcomes. Political outcomes are downstream from the fundamental changes that must occur to make our society a healthy one capable of producing a functioning political system. Why are our politicians corrupt? Because the people themselves are corrupt. We have outsourced our thinking to Artificial Intelligence, don’t read up on candidates, allow lobbyists to select their own champions, and then refuse to attack the most critical pillars of the American nation with intensity.

Want to inspire Christians to take part in the affairs of the nation? Then start challenging the do-nothing pastors who encourage people to gossip about so-called end-times while avoiding the turmoil of the modern world entirely.

Want political change? Recruit faith-based candidates with resolve, guts, and skill to run for local offices, and start booting bureaucrats at the lowest levels which do not attract national attention and money. I helped get my friend David Cole, a reader of this newsletter, elected to a local position in Washington State:

Want to impact widespread change that reaches far beyond politics? Get engaged with those God has put in your lives. Proverbs 27:17 (NIV) says, “As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another.” Take your views, convictions, and beliefs to those in your church (find one if you don’t have one), your men’s (or women’s) groups, sports clubs, hobby groups, and workplaces. Remember, not everyone will agree with you, and some will hate you. But they hated Jesus, too, and not even He was able to convince everyone to take His side. Who are you to expect everyone will side with you?

We seem to think that because everyone agrees with us on social media that we have arrived at some sort of consensus. But the sad reality of the modern world is that social media has allowed humanity to be more connected than ever before, with absolutely, positively, zero deep connections. We have lost touch with those we should be connected with, and I am just as guilty as everyone else here.

John 15:4 (NIV):

Remain in me (Jesus - parentheses mine), as I also remain in you. No branch can bear fruit by itself; it must remain in the vine. Neither can you bear fruit unless you remain in me.

In Numbers 13, those sent to scout the Promised Land came back and expressed fear and doubt over the giants living in the land. The only two who said they should trust God and go forward were Joshua and Caleb:

Numbers 13:30 (NIV):

Then Caleb silenced the people before Moses and said, “We should go up and take possession of the land, for we can certainly do it.”

We live in a land occupied by the dark giants inhabiting our institutions, courts, schools, entertainment industries, and government - to name a few. Despite proclaiming great faith, half of this country believes we are not able to conquer, and by espousing belief in such, poisons the hearts and minds of those who wish for a better future.

What if you were the solution? You may think you’re only one little voice on a map, but if you truly believe the faith you espouse, then you should remember that your efforts are one break away from being greatly multiplied. I lived it myself. I was selling traffic control devices in Texas in 2020, and remember when my sales routine was ruined by the COVID-19 pandemic. My attitude sucked, but I was rightfully angry enough over the 2020 quasi election that I jumped right in there and put my analysis on paper for the court cases that were eventually thrown out. I distinctly remember asking General Flynn if I should be worried about signing my name to my affidavits, and if there would be reprisal for standing up.

If you know that man, you know what he said, and the rest is history. Nine months later, President Trump boosted my work, and in doing so, forced me out of my comfort zone.

Now, here comes the honesty. Since facing my mortal feelings and pondering my years, I’ve sought wise counsel. If we are to have lasting change, we will rebuild the very foundations of what it means to be freedom-loving Americans, and we will demonstrate it to those in our lives, social circles, professional settings, and even by the way we interact online. Political victories are fleeting; look how many people who were jubilant on November 5, 2024, have embraced death and negativity and walked away from a fight that once animated everything in their lives.

I remain a watchman on the wall. Yet if I do it for my own clout, or my own kingdom, I fail in what I was called to do. We, the people of character, faith, integrity, and conviction, must begin to take charge and assert ourselves boldly, not relying on circumstances we can’t control but on our impact on the people who believe in us and what we say.

Go to the 9/11 Museum in New York City. It will shake you to your core. While you’re in the Northeast, go to the Flight 93 memorial, which honors some of the bravest people to have ever lived, who sacrificed their lives to save others. Yet after 25 years of ceremonial online posts, I find myself believing more and more that the only way to honor 9/11 is to no longer focus on the death, but move ourselves to creating a lasting resurrection. We can certainly do it, as Caleb said - not because of our own strength but because of the convictions in our hearts and our reliance upon God.

It is the only way, because it had to be the only way.

Jesus multiplied loaves and fishes, and consider the two pennies thrown into the offering bin by the widow a substantial investment. He can likewise take your efforts, futile as you may think they are, and multiply them into something that can fundamentally resurrect the American way of life in a way no election outcomes can. Even the first miracle, the turning of water into wine, is meant to symbolize the taking of something ordinary (you) and an ensuing transportation into something outstanding.

Dad knew “how much we Americans have and too frequently take for granted.” He was the son of an Austro-Hungarian immigrant who was a rabid anti-communist. Grandpa Keshel instilled those values and a love of history in my father, and Dad passed all of that down to his kids. Four of the five of us remain grounded in reality and responsible citizenship. Because we are unlike any other nations, we must stand up and fight or lose what we love forever. Your grandchildren will grow up in a nation like the United Kingdom - a place where you can still go get a nice meal, and look at the sad faces of an increasingly secular people who know their country’s best days are in the distant past.

I will do my very best to continue to bring you actionable and relevant information, while pointing people to the light to become the best versions of who God made them to be. Thank you to all of you who have invested your time in helping sharpen me, and for those of you who find this newsletter worth reading - I am indebted to you.

Today is the day to get moving, because if 9/11 taught us anything, tomorrow is promised to no man.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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God has blessed this newsletter with the gift of timeliness. Not so long ago, I had a hunch the battle over the USPS and mail-in balloting was about to pick up. The very day I wrote about the USPS’s published mail-in balloting guidance, the Supreme Court shredded a lower court’s (activist) injunction, sending that debate into an even more elevated level of contention:

Just last week, I chastised the Missouri Supreme Court for playing politics and carrying Democrat water in an obviously bought-off or corrupt ruling to save Emanuel Cleaver’s seat (MO-5) from flipping to the GOP:

There is no excuse for the court issuing a ruling like this two months out from the election. It should’ve been fast-tracked, especially with Missouri having such a late primary, so voters could understand who to nominate and candidates could understand who to campaign to. And because this decision was held until the last minute, it brings me full-circle back to my original question:

Who bribes, threatens, or blackmails our judges?

Don’t give me this honorable nonsense. I’ve always made fun of so-called conservatives who believe everything, like schools, media, and big pharma, is corrupt, but somehow no one would think to rig elections. Now that election rigging is hard to ignore, some have moved their pearl clutching to the judiciary. I’m here to tell you - the judiciary is rotten to the core, and many of the Supreme Court’s decisions (like birthright citizenship and mail-in voting) suggest serious compromise of at least two GOP appointed justices.

Yesterday, the fit hit the shan, so to speak.

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A federal court restored the “Missouri First” map, spitting in the eye of the Missouri Supreme Court - and did so with just minutes before the deadline the state Supreme Court sought to run right up against:

Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins, a member of the Freedom Caucus, immediately ordered everyone to print ballots with the new boundaries passed by the legislature and signed by Governor Kehoe in September 2025, which have already been circulated and voted in a primary. The Supreme Court, butthurt, then ordered Hoskins to appear and explain why he shouldn’t be held in contempt:

To me, this is the sweet sound of an activist court getting struck down, throwing a fit, and creating a situation in which they will be repudiated by perhaps the highest court in the land. Long live the Missouri First map, which happens to be an essential piece of a theoretical Republican U.S. House majority come January 2027. If (and in these perilous times, a big if) the Missouri First map stands after the dust has settled, that puts us right back on track with a likely map of 202 Republican to 187 Democrat. After leaners (23), seats I believe are clearly favorable to one side, we have 208 Republican to 204 Democrat, with 23 seats to decide it all:

Yes, there used to be 24 decisive seats. Unfortunately, due to some very clear analysis I’ve run on California, I have downgraded CA-22 (incumbent Valadao - Republican) to a leaner favoring Democrats.

You may recall that in the 2024 race, I pegged 235 electoral votes, which included North Carolina and all other 2020 certified Trump states, as the “Core 235.” Getting to that number meant arrival at base camp. Once at base camp, the most direct path to presidential victory was Georgia (16) + Pennsylvania (19). On Election Night, everything panned out exactly as it had been drawn up.

With this operating picture in mind, under the expectation that the Missouri First (7-1 R) map will stick, this is the most likely pathway to a minimum majority, assuming my 202 + 6 GOP leaners (CO-3, FL-14, FL-22, MT-1, NC-1, PA-1) = 208 map holds up and doesn’t sustain any upsets:

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“10 percent of the people lead the way. 90 percent are just along for the ride.”

Catherine the Great, Empress of the Russian Empire in the 18th century, had a military advisor named Grigory Potemkin. His name is associated with the modern term “Potemkin village,” which is used to describe an artificial or deceptive display used to hide a reality. Legend has it that Potemkin built fake settlements with fake happy people in newly acquired territories to fool Catherine into believing she had acquired something worthwhile and of value.

Today, I’m going to put on a mathematics class to make my case as to what an artificial voter registration operation looks like. I’m not saying such an operation is patently illegal, but it’s also not what I would call organic and necessarily predictive of future outcomes. Allow me to use my book, The American War on Election Corruption, to illustrate my first point about just how far Republicans have come in Pennsylvania, now America’s most important political battleground:

Things used to be really bad in Pennsylvania. The Democrat high point in the past half-century came in 2008, when there were 1.236 million more Democrats than Republicans (D+14.1% by party registration) in the Keystone State. That was up by over 650,000 registrations from 2004, when there was a tight race for electoral votes between Bush and Kerry, and it projected a huge leftward lurch. The outcome was Obama +10.3%, the largest Democrat presidential win in Pennsylvania since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 national landslide.

You can see that in 2012, Republicans had made up ground by virtue of Democrats losing even more registrants than they did, and the outcome was predictive. Romney only lost by roughly half of what McCain did in what amounts to a race to the bottom. The white working-class had abandoned Obama, and cities weren’t into him as much as they had been in 2008. The Trump revolution really lit the barn on fire for Pennsylvania Democrats:

The poll-obsessed still ignore party registration, at their own peril. When Trump won Pennsylvania by 1.7% in 2024, Democrats’ registration lead was down to just 286,283 total (D+3.1%), and 131,693 on the active voter roll (D+1.6%). You can also see the ill-fated 2020 election in there, which should have been a slam dunk for Trump if not for the fundamental overhaul in how the state votes occurring in 2019 (no-excuse mail-in balloting). This may be a shameless pitch, but you’ll really get a lot out of reading the book. It contains an entire 2004 through 2024 breakdown of these figures in Pennsylvania and why the bridge collapsed in 2020.

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All of this is to say: Democrats finally get it, and know their demise has been foretold through their collapse of voter registration advantage.

They figured this out about a year ago, and now are spending big money to reverse the trend everyone is now watching out for. Now I’ll show you why I think it’s 100% Potemkin:

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Last month’s report can be found here.

Join me on LIVE this evening at 3 PM EST/12 PM PST (for paid subscribers).

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since August: R+9,973

• Old Faithful comes through again, with a net pickup of nearly another 10,000 more Republicans on the rolls despite a Democrat gain larger than July’s. This is despite Florida’s primaries having taken place on August 18. Notice how Republicans went slightly backward in Iowa, Arizona, and North Carolina (and back further in Pennsylvania) for primaries, but not in Florida. That’s a big sign the Democrats have thrown in the towel on the Sunshine State, which will remain red this fall in all statewide races.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

• Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)

IOWA

Net Shift Since August: D+614

• A similar churn as the one in July, with another minor Democrat gain potentially attributable to roll maintenance more than anything else. Democrats pick up a net of 614.

• Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely, and now a gubernatorial contest looking tight.

• Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since August: D+5,729 Total, D+6,911 Active

• It’s Democrats gaining again post-July roll purge, winning every week. It is very clear to me, given their modest gains in North Carolina (a state of similar size), that a dedicated and well-funded voter registration effort is underway to reverse the now-magnified Republican gains having taken place in the Keystone State for the past 16 years. Democrats led by well over a million registrations in the Obama days.

• Democrat gains are driven by urban areas such as Philadelphia and its collar counties, as well as Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). I measured the change since August in three vital blue-collar counties Trump won, and found the following changes: Monroe (D+85 overall, D+113 active); Northampton (D+227 overall; D+235 active); Erie (D+2 overall; R+17 active). With Republicans actually gaining in Erie County and treading water in the other two, I am not sensing a legitimate reversion to Democrat voting patterns developing in the long run for these counties, and therefore the state itself.

• Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since August: D+902 Total, D+1,058 Active

• The Democrat gains are much more modest (D+902 total/1,058 active) than in Pennsylvania (D+5,729 total/D+6,911 active), which makes me think Democrats have two vastly different operations going on in those states; regardless, Democrats are making gains through the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham metros as Republicans stagnate.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

• Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since August: No update

• Republicans are in the hunt for the open U.S. Senate seat, and have a few good polls out this month. No update on voter rolls, with the next one likely out in November. I would expect modest Democrat gains given the nature of midterm cycles.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.

• Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since August: No update

• No update from the Secretary of State; another is likely mid-October with Democrats having made modest gains driven by Maricopa County.

• Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large. I have a strong suspicion that the GOP is having membership issues with the Mormon church, also evident in Utah - and not good for the 2026 midterm outlook. I remain optimistic long-term for Arizona, but the GOP needs to get serious on its urban strategy.

• Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices

NEVADA

Net Shift Since August: R+1,165

• This marks the first net win for the GOP in several months, but it is a product of voter registration maintenance, which gutted Democrats primarily in Clark County. Republicans lost over 13,000 registrations, while Democrats obviously lost more than 14,000. The registration index, which has flipped between parties for the past year multiple times, once again hovers right around dead even.

• Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

_{Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.}

What we know:

Hope Hooton is fighting to fix a system that she says failed her family. She believes if this bill had been a law back then, her kids would still be alive today. Hooton is now turning grief into purpose.

“To keep children safe. To make sure that judges have the right criteria to use when abuse and domestic violence are prevalent in a case and to make sure that it holds judges accountable,” Hooton said.

The backstory:

That is the driving force behind House Bill 2995, also known as the “Alec and Lydia Act,” named in honor of Hooton’s children. They were shot and killed by their father, who then turned the gun on himself in May 2024 during his court-granted unsupervised parenting time.

“The judge granted 50-50 unsupervised custody to their father despite domestic violence and coercive control aspects in our relationship and severe mental illness, so we’re just making sure this doesn’t happen again,” Hooton said.

“The judge” is Michael Valenzuela.

Valenzuela knew of the father’s mental health problems, yet let him have unsupervised time with the kids anyway. I am confident it surprises absolutely no one that Valenzuela isn’t the only judge who has been consistently problematic when it comes to custody decisions in the state. Rachel has a laundry list of his cohorts who would be expelled from the judiciary in a properly functioning state and country. The crisis of family courts in Arizona, especially Maricopa County, is no longer something hiding in secret because of the strident efforts of a few good legislators and an organized army of pissed off and estranged parents.

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It should also inspire your confidence in Rachel (and by extension, me) that Hobbs’ office refused to allow Rachel to attend the ceremonial signing of HB 2995, despite it being quite common for co-sponsors to attend such meetings. I guess referring to someone as a “fake governor” for long enough eventually gets noticed.

If you’re so compelled, please support Rachel’s reelection campaign:

Unfortunately, judicial corruption is widespread and infiltrates nearly every segment of the workings of government. We’ve seen one lower court after another issue nationwide injunctions against President Trump’s executive orders, including the latest move against the USPS order by the same Massachusetts judge. They act like this because there are no consequences to such unethical malpractice and tyranny, which they were ironically given equal standing as one of the three branches of government to stop. Ketanji Brown Jackson is essentially what happens when a leftist TikTok influencer becomes a sitting Supreme Court Justice - a rubber stamp for everything the purple-haired, bullring piercing oxygen thieves wish to become widespread and accepted.

Do you remember when Utah, one of the reddest states in America, lost its 4-0 Republican U.S. House map last November? I wrote about it right here in these virtual pages:

It just so turns out that Judge Diana Hagen was screwing the lawyer arguing on behalf of Democrats for a brand new House seat in Utah while Republicans are locked out of Harris +6 New Mexico. In what universe is this allowed to stand other than one run by Utah Republicans? I am telling you, Democrats could be ready to impose a law forcing white Americans to pay reparations prior to being swapped one-for-one to Mexico in an immigrant exchange and they would talk about the systemic injustices of the past mandate such a move. They are utterly ball-less and pious, yet when it comes to Judge Hagen’s extracurricular activities actively throwing a House seat under open corruption, she’s allowed to just gracefully disappear from public life without consequence.

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I got started at the right time here, in the middle of America’s craving for information related to election corruption. My two biggest peaks of paid subscriber growth, not counting my launch, were in November 2022 and November 2024 as I made election predictions and recapped results. The 2024 cycle pushed me out of a niche bubble and more into a realm of battle-tested forecasters - because I got all the presidential races right (56 for 56):

With that said, I expect a lot of people will find this newsletter in the coming weeks as I start making “calls” on the 2026 midterms. I will constantly route them back to today’s post so they understand what I’m doing, because this year is going to be different than a presidential year. As much as I’d like to be right on every race, I consider it a more important point to paint an accurate picture of the election field for readers than I do in turning this into a carnival game of how many picks were right.

Spoiler Alert: I don’t think I’m going to get all 506 marquee races right this year (435 House, 35 Senate, 36 Governor). That represents nine times more races than I predicted in 2024, when I didn’t take a stab at the House or Senate counts (although I covered the races individually). Still, with so many lies to sift through every day and the smoke and mirrors of polling always present, there is major demand for this reminder:

There are two types of races.

Those that can be won by either side, and those that are already decided. The first group, obviously, comes in a variety of ranges, like a candidate’s ability to close a gap of five points (like AZ Governor), or a race that appears to be headed for a photo finish (like AZ-1 or VA-2).

What will my forecasts look like?

As “election season” rolled on in 2024, it became more and more obvious that President Trump was going to win. As I broke down in my book, The American War on Election Corruption, each passing day made the picture that much more clear. President Trump’s gambit to promote early and mail voting, which election integrity purists rightly hate, caused the GOP to run out to advantages in states they almost always need major Election Day strength to win. Arizona was long gone before the calendar turned to November for Harris, and so was North Carolina. She didn’t have the firewall she needed in Pennsylvania, and those not lost in polling noise knew it.

Likewise, there are races I’m watching today that will change (for better or for worse) when we get some data. Pennsylvania starts sending ballots out within two weeks, and not long after that we will have an idea how things may break in PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 - the three critical Republican defenses for the U.S. House majority.

In the first grouping of elections - those that are already decided - you can expect solid predictions. GA-11 will go Republican, MA-4 will go Democrat - both with 100% certainty. I’ve already been writing about these safe seats for most of the year.

The second group of elections - those that are legitimate races - will bring much greater detail so you can understand down to the finest detail what makes them races. Where possible (not bound under confidentiality), I may share some of my proprietary analytics highlighting exactly which demographics and district regions will swing the biggest stick in each race, such as Scott Perry’s defense of PA-10:

For states that have a steady trickle of mail-in ballots, I’ll probably wait until the end to give my estimates. They’ll look something like this:

You can expect individual profiles for each decisive race. If detailed analysis is for you, now would be a good time to become a paid subscriber. You’ll understand why my readership grows by leaps and bounds during election season every other year.

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Nebraska’s Osborn Ain’t Dumb

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Ada reviewed my book, The American War on Election Corruption, in her post. Let me tell you - she’s sharp as a tack and has a sense of perception second to none. Check out the piece she dropped yesterday in her newsletter, which I urge you to subscribe to:

My Reflections From The Edge

While You Were Watching a Lake Get Renamed

This week the President signed an executive order declaring a national emergency over the security of the United States bulk power system. Not a press release. Not a proposal. A national emergency, invoked under the same statutory authority u…

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25 days ago · 17 likes · 6 comments · Ada Nestor

“While You Were Watching a Lake Get Renamed”

Believe me, I’ve already heard all the second-guessing, hand-wringing, and rationalizing from so-called conservatives going on about changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America. Ada had this to say:

The same week, Lake Ontario became “Lake America.” A map with a name crossed out on Truth Social. An Oval Office signing. Canadian premiers issuing statements. Three straight news cycles arguing about whether a body of water can be renamed by executive fiat, and whether the Atlantic is next. I’ll believe the Atlantic panic when someone actually tries it.

I didn’t write a word about the lake. Not because it isn’t a story. Because I was watching two real ones.

She went on to talk about some actions President Trump took last week related to a national emergency over our power system. Give it a read and you’ll realize that she appreciates the same thing about the President that I’ve noticed for years now.

When President Trump is getting things done in a big way, he usually throws out a series of distractions for the press and Trump-deranged (often the same people) to choke on. That way, someone with an inside scoop to derail peace/trade/negotiation cannot gain the necessary leverage over people who would rather defend a communist or openly express their disdain over naming something to honor one’s own country.

Then, when the ink dries, you get something like this:

“Breaking News: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!”

President Trump pointed out that the United States now controls 65 billion barrels (65 thousand million) of Venezuela’s oil reserves - enough to supply the petroleum and oil needs of the United States (20.6 million barrels per day) for almost nine years.

Ada’s post compelled me to produce what I believe are the three most vital takeaways for Trump’s Venezuela oil deal, along with deeper explanations for each as to how they will benefit us, the people of the United States of America.

Without further ado:

I. Hindsight Remains Golden

I remember waking up on Saturday morning, January 3, to find out that U.S. force plucked Venezuela’s then-president Nicolas Maduro right out of his bed, then flew out without losing a single service member. I mean, they yanked him like you see with one of those hooks in a cartoon ripping someone off of a stage.

Another thing the Trump-deaf don’t get is how he refers to other people, like the interim president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez. She’s a member of Maduro’s party and, I’m confident, a pretty lousy person and even worse leader. Even so, she is referred to in writing by the most powerful man on Earth as “Highly Respected.”

Rodriguez and Trump almost certainly have the same thing in mind. She will do what he says, and if she doesn’t, she will wind up getting a free ride on the same aircraft that took Maduro on an unexpected red eye across the Western Hemisphere. As long as she says “yes sir” and we turn Venezuela into a resource-rich partner in our area of influence, she is great, wonderful, and “highly respected” - and most importantly, going nowhere.

This brings me to the question of Manifest Destiny. Few of us support these endless wars that have been popular for the past 60 years. This opposition got President Trump elected twice (three times, really), and right now we are watching the rest of the world pine for the United States to do the dying in Iran. I am confident there were larger plans in place months ago, but Europe is out, and no one in the Middle East has the resources to put men on the ground needed to topple a regime that manages, above all things, to survive.

But taking care of our own backyard is hardly a concept of endless wars or never-ending conflict. Trump’s success at practically zero cost to the United States will likely spur future like-minded administrations (including Trump’s own) to take action against other pariah states on our side of the map, such as Cuba. A Latin America with de facto alignment with an America First agenda is a powerful economic force against the powers of globalism and the emergence of other-than-friendly nations, like China.

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My point in writing today is that when I saw the latest outrage related to a singer, it reminded me of when I wrote about NFL players and their opinions:

Everyone was up in arms about Jaxson Dart cashing in on the opportunity of a lifetime to introduce the President of the United States. It’s a truly big deal to meet the sitting president, even if he’s one you don’t support (although Dart does support Trump - smart guy). Many service members have had medals pinned on or certificates signed by a president they didn’t vote for, and my home has a document recognizing my father’s life and service signed by (gasp) Barack Obama hanging on the wall.

Nevertheless, pop culture says it’s OK to crap all over Republican politicians and trash their supporters, but if 5% of the time there is a message of support suggested - no bueno. My charge to everyone here is to bake this into your psyches - who gives a damn what anyone who sings, dances, strips, throws, blocks, passes, runs, swings a bat, or takes selfies all day thinks about the world?

Here’s what Jelly Roll had to say after spending a week on Jimmy Kimmel trashing conservatives - who almost certainly make up at least 80% of his fan base given his Christian-adjacent content and personal testimony:

But just because I watched a fight on TV doesn’t mean I support everything this administration does. Just like how hosting Jimmy Kimmel’s show doesn’t mean I have all of Jimmy Kimmel’s politics. Sure, I lean left on some things. But like most folks, I’m pretty down the middle. I am a Christian. I am a country music singer. I’m a farmer. I’m a bow hunter. And most of the things I eat I prefer to get with a stick and a string. That’s the truth.

No, Jason, most Americans are not “down the middle.”

• Roughly 30% of Americans are lost for life to whatever banner carries leftist policies. Perhaps half of them, or 15%, are on the radical left. The overall group includes your standard single feminists and urbanites, even if not fully radicalized.

• Another 15% of Americans usually vote for Democrats, but are sitting on the race-bait plantation or rely on government cheese to get by.

• Roughly 40% of Americans, including suburban squishes and hardcore right-wingers, have either conservative views on money or culture (or both).

• That leaves us with about 15% of the population that can be persuaded based on no more than a few issues to vote in one way or another.

There is no “middle.” Not anymore.

What would it look like anyway?

Immigration - We either enforce immigration law or we don’t. There is no middle. You either become India, Mexico, or Somalia, or you don’t.

Trade - We either have trade policy that prioritizes the American worker, or we don’t. You can either create conditions that bring business to America and reshores industry, or you create ones that ensure your businesses close and relocate to another country.

War - We either use the military to defend American interests, or we don’t. It’s pretty obvious the entire Middle East has been waiting for six months for us to invade Iran, take the bullets, and entrench ourselves in another decade-long war. Iraq was a great teacher, and no one learned that lesson more than Europe did. That’s why they won’t touch the Iranian problem. I don’t see a “middle” position based entirely on the premise of how we’ve done combat post-1945.

Anti-Corruption - Here we have perhaps the biggest domestic problem. Scandinavian and Nordic nations are what we call “high trust” societies - in which the people trust the institutions and the government. America was born out of distrust of government, and a very low percentage of people relative to other nations trust government. That’s why Congress always has such a dismal approval rating. Where is the middle ground supposed to be in punishing corrupt officials and institutions for stealing elections, pushing pandemic hoaxes that are later revealed for everyone to see, and participating in activities like insider trading? Exactly - there is none.

There are either real consequences, or none at all.

All the other stuff is fluff and arguing about marginal tax rates. That isn’t the battlefield we fight on today. Today’s is the one of “sink or swim” that will determine if we have a meaningful national future. And on it, there is no middle ground.

We would all do our nation a great service to correct the lie of “I’m in the middle on everything” when we hear it, right after we’ve given up caring about what the out-of-touch celebrity class has to say.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

It’s like that with elections. The nature of elections requires constant upkeep from mainstream media propagandists and an ongoing recruitment of possible narratives to use against almost exclusively Republican candidates, unless the tools are needed to curate the correct winners in Democrat primaries as we saw recently in Wisconsin after Abdul El-Sayed narrowly snuck across the line in Michigan:

I browsed headlines on X yesterday and was amazed at the level of gaslighting taking place this far from Election Day. It led me to believe there is a major information operation underway to shape the expectations of the electorate, very much like we saw in the run-up to the 2020 quasi election.

Four key items have my attention as I write to you as ballots go out in less than three weeks in the Keystone State, Pennsylvania:

I. It’s Not in the Bag

This example comes from Arizona, which is a heavyweight state this year with all statewide offices up for grabs, and two decisive House seats hanging in the balance (AZ-1 and AZ-6). Before I proceed further, I must caution everyone about the gubernatorial race here. I’ve written previously about why the registration numbers look daunting for Katie Hobbs (Arizona is almost exactly twice as red by registration as it was in 2022, when she stole her own election as Secretary of State), but Arizona has a terrible quirk in that it loves incumbent governors.

No incumbent governor has been fired by voters since 1966, and never since the job became a four-year gig instead of two beginning in 1970.

So, Andy Biggs’s polls are not so hot; the catch is not who people think may win - it’s by how much. There is a massive difference between the flood of recent polls surrounding this race. One group is showing 13 to 15 points, which is absolutely ludicrous. The other is showing 4 to 5 points, which can be closed and makes more sense even to the polling-skeptical. Democrats, when they win (or “win”) the state, win five counties: Maricopa, Pima, Apache, Santa Cruz, and Coconino. A 15-point margin on 2.5 million votes would yield a victory margin of 375,000, which is utterly insane given how competitive Maricopa County is.

And then there’s this:

What? Why would Hobbs need $10 million if she’s wiping the floor with Andy Biggs and incumbent Arizona governors don’t ever lose? Well, that’s because no one believes the double-digit polling and think the Mormon candidate with roots from Tucson and Maricopa County might make a race of it after all.

Another point from Arizona comes from AZ-2, Eli Crane’s district. Remember when that internal Biden polling got leaked after his disastrous debate against President Trump in 2024? He was losing or on the cusp of losing states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Jersey. If you understand how these races link together in a national election, it means Trump already had Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona in the bag. That’s why Biden had to go.

Likewise, I called AZ-2 as a safe Republican seat, meaning I see very little likelihood of a Democrat flip in 2026. I had to downgrade this by one seat because the moron Max Miller stayed in the race in OH-7 instead of allowing himself to be replaced, but here’s what I wrote about AZ-2:

I’d call Eli Crane in AZ-2 (R) my iffiest “safe” Republican seat, but the Democrats have a very static electorate there and their own internal comms don’t seem very bullish on it.

This designation may actually belong to Monica De La Cruz in TX-15 now that I’ve seen Crane’s internal numbers:

Even if that’s twice as large as it should be, Crane still has the seat by 6 points. He won it by 9 in 2024 alongside a Trump win in the state. Why do we care about this seat? Because his numbers would look a lot shakier if Hobbs was about to wipe the floor with Biggs (as we are concerned about all three GOP-held decisive seats in Pennsylvania pending Shapiro’s coming blowout reelection win), and Crane’s seat actually flipping would be a telltale sign that the Trump base is staying home in November.

II. The Polls at Night are Fake with Fright

Deep in the heart of Texas…

Reminds me of the one I loathe…

That would be the media…

That will be the end of my musical attempt at humor.

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On Monday, the United States Supreme Court struck down an injunction by “Judge” Indira Talwani impacting President Trump’s USPS-oriented executive order, paving the way for the rule to move into effect pending one more ruling in our favor:

Predictably, left-wing groups are freaking out, and so are Democrat governors and statewide office holders throughout America, like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes. All I have to ask is this: Guys, what’s the big deal about submitting your list of legal and approved mail-in voters to the federal government if you want to use the federal government’s postal apparatus to get the job done?

You see, this newsletter is about bringing you the most relevant and actionable news with a clear and realistic take. It’s not an accident that my analysis on the USPS ruling came out on the very day the Supreme Court began to move on the matter. And as you’ll see in the rest of today’s article, truth remains a potent weapon against the lies of the enemy.

SIGNAL OR NOISE?

Lieutenant Colonel Steve Murray (USA, Ret.) is a guy you may not be familiar with, but he’s a favorite of mine. Before I moved to Arizona, I stayed at his place several times and he’s someone I go to when I want an unfiltered assessment of something. Let me warn you, if you locate him online, he’s like my Dad - he has earned a Master’s of the Profane Arts degree and will really tell you what he thinks even if you’re not ready to hear it. It doesn’t mean we agree on every person or every issue. I’m way more political than he is. But…it takes a lot of minds to get the full picture. This is what LTC Murray said about me before we even knew each other:

He is signal.

In the information space, you’re either signal or you are noise. Noisy voices want to hear themselves argue with everyone else and make the best short clip videos for the aloof to binge out on. They talk first and hope they get it right rather than aim for precision and develop into trustworthy voices people want to listen to. The ones who practice diligence and restraint are the ones referred to as “signal.” There are many ways to identify who is signal and who is clearly not; for instance, go back five years and tell me how many of those voices you still value. Noise eventually washes out into the vast ocean of irrelevance.

LTC Murray is crass, but shrewd. He made a masterful video response to Wendy Rogers when she attacked me and Jack Dona because she wouldn’t stop promoting a stolen valor candidate for State House in 2024, but I can’t find it. That would make a sailor’s vocabulary look tame by comparison. But the written receipts remain throughout his social media presence. And in case you were wondering, Rogers never apologized for her lies about me, and hasn’t made eye contact with me or Rachel in over two years.

Nevertheless, this isn’t about old beefs. This is about the present. I am a subject of great interest to this professional propagandist:

That’s Matt Cohen, author at Democracy Docket and underling to the Ernst Stavro Blofeld of modern election rigging, Marc Elias. Matt will most definitely read this piece, ignore it, and then scan everything I write about elections on social media so he can write another puff piece for the brain dead among us who have plenty of money to throw at “noise” outlets instead of using every resource they have to locate signal, which brings wisdom.

People forward me Cohen’s digs all the time. His favorite title for me, even more so than just election denier, is “anti-voting activist.” I’d say my primary focus today is to address that claim and to give Matt an opportunity to report on what my true goals are. Consider this a maximum dose of signal - enough to shine the light through the darkened heart of any radical Marxist with a plan to subjugate his political adversaries through the destruction of our institutions - including the institution of free and fair elections.

Here is Matt’s latest article about me:

I should be honored, really.

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USPS said it was issuing its 95-page rule so it could take immediate effect if a court lifted its injunctions on it and be in place for the upcoming election. Under the rule, USPS would not deliver ballots ​in states that do not comply with the rule's new standards.

You can also find the full document at my Telegram page in a forwarded post.

The USPS cuts right to the chase and points fingers at the ridiculous courts in this country, which are doing everything they can to get in the way of communists being thrown out of power everywhere in America. From the document:

Given injunctions currently in place in State of California v. Trump, No. 26-cv-11581 (D. Mass. June 25, 2026), and League of Women Voters of Massachusetts v. Trump, No. 26-cv-11549 (D. Mass. Aug. 11, 2026), the Postal Service will not take actions to implement the rule specifically for the 2026 election unless and until the government obtains relief from those injunctions.

Essentially, the USPS tells us in the first two pages they are trying to execute the President’s executive order intended to “…reduce the risk of fraud, and help protect the integrity of federal elections.” Of course, every nation on Earth realizes the problems with mail-in balloting, which is why you can barely spin the globe without your finger landing on a nation that hasn’t already banned the practice; that is, every nation not filled with left-wing idiots jamming up the courts and praying they can threaten and blackmail themselves to some half-baked ruling from a tyrant in a robe on the enemy’s payroll that furthers their sick agendas.

This article, as I am fond of doing, will outline the Top Five Points of the USPS’s ruling for your edification and understanding:

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I. Timing

The USPS is on point and getting ahead of anything new, specifically aiming these reforms with a court order in mind. The Trump administration is awaiting an emergency Supreme Court ruling on their filings pushing back against the lawsuits from states listed above. Most recently, the Supreme Court (thanks to Amy Coney Barrett) gave us the shaft by allowing states to count mail-in ballots arriving after Election Day:

It remains to be seen whether that ruling will have any impact on Trump’s USPS executive order (14399). Still, I find it promising that the USPS is bullish enough on the validity and necessity of that order to produce such a thorough document that suggests they acknowledge the vulnerabilities of the present system and the potential for fraud and abuse. Simply put, the USPS is ready and eager to implement these changes. Timing is essential, since states like Virginia and Pennsylvania will start pushing mail ballots out within the next month.

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For instance, in the last five presidential elections held in Texas, the Democrat nominee has received a minimum of 41.38% (Obama 2012) and a maximum of 46.48% (Biden). Obama’s low point was marked out on the wrong side of a Romney blowout, and Biden’s high mark (in losing the state by 5.6%, the closest margin in a presidential race since 1996) was not easily repeatable in a post-2020 environment and without massive Hispanic support.

Republicans had between 52.06% (Trump 2020) and 57.17% (Romney) in that same timeframe, with Trump’s low share coinciding with Biden’s fluke (and inflated) percentage described above.

It’s hard to go wrong with calling it Republican 53, and Democrat 44 as a baseline. Run three points shy or too high, you’re still in the margin of error with a result between 6 and 12 points. Trump would have overrun it in 2024, but at least you didn’t look like an idiot putting out polls like we see today.

Case in point:

CNN’s Harry Enten did a segment Wednesday pointing out that Republicans hold a 6-point lead in the generic Senate ballot in 6 key races:

• Alaska - Sullivan (R-inc.) vs. Peltola (D)

• Iowa - Hinson (R) vs. Turek (D)

• Maine - Collins (R-inc.) vs. Jackson (D)

• North Carolina - Whatley (R) vs. Cooper (D)

• Ohio - Husted (R-inc.) vs. Brown (D)

• Texas - Paxton (R) vs. Talarico (D)

Most people are taking wild swings at the House generic ballot, and the average of polls currently sits at D+6.4%. What that means is that this average suggests the electorate will be 6.4% more Democrat by affiliation (or perceived affiliation) than Republican in House races. This may not be correct come election time, but most people who study these maps and races realize Republicans have a puncher’s chance at holding the House against the grain of 92 years’ worth of midterm data suggesting failure for the president’s party.

If Republicans have reason for optimism in the House with a 6.4% generic ballot polling disadvantage, then what does it say to have a R+6.0% Senate ballot? First and foremost, it suggests all House polls are fraudulent and shouldn’t be considered as more reputable than a Magic 8 Ball from Spencer’s, or tarot cards on Bourbon Street. Second, it would suggest to me that Republicans would win all 6 of those Senate seats in question, take Michigan, and even be in the game in Georgia and New Hampshire (and possibly Minnesota).

But…the math.

If I have these numbers (1, 5, 7, 10), can they average 15? Of course not. They add up to 23, and divided by 4, you get an average of 5.75, helped substantially by the 10. In order for me to reach an average of a given number, at least one of the numbers in the set must surpass the stated average. So, riddle me this:

How in the hell does the GOP have a generic ballot in the Senate of R+6.0 when these are the current polling averages?

Alaska - Peltola (D) +2.0%

Iowa - Hinson (R) +0.7%

Maine - Jackson (D) +2.3%

North Carolina - Cooper (D) +8.0%

Ohio - Brown (D) +0.6%

Texas - Talarico (D) +1.2%

Let’s look at this mess with a little color commentary.

Peltola is hoping for the fake Dan Sullivan to get her over the top in the garbage Ranked Choice Voting system Alaska runs, but just fired her entire campaign staff.

Hinson is the only Republican leading in the average of polls, and only barely after a Turek +4 poll dropped from the brain trust over at FOX News.

Pollsters didn’t learn a damn thing after this masterpiece in 2020, the last time Susan Collins won reelection:

I’ll concede that most people have Roy Cooper favored in North Carolina, but 8 points is a ludicrous margin.

In Ohio, it was Husted, Husted, Husted, until FOX News’s team visited the Minneapolis learing center and deposited a Brown +8 to blow up the average of polls.

Ken Paxton’s race is likely to follow this pattern shortly:

So what is Enten doing over at CNN? My best guess is hedging, so when Republicans hold the Senate someone can go back in time and say, “Look, individual race polling is hard but our aggregate showed the Republicans had some serious momentum in the Senate!”

But seriously, what the hell? If we think Whatley is losing, and make a baseline assumption that Sullivan, Collins, and Husted may be in close races, which race bumped this average all the way to 6 points? I can see Hinson winning in the mid-to-high single digits, but that’s right at the average of 6. Would Paxton be winning by 12? Let’s play it out:

Let’s give Whatley -4, Sullivan, Collins, and Husted all +2, Hinson +6, and Paxton +12 (too high). That would give us 20 divided by 6, an average of 3.33%. CNN is saying 6 points, and none of this would really matter anyway since Texas is almost worth as many electoral votes as all of these other states combined, dwarfing them in voting population.

In order for the GOP to be leading by 6 points in these races speaking only in terms of nominal values (not factoring the weight of Texas or Ohio), you’d need to see numbers like this:

Whatley +2, Sullivan +8, Collins +4, Husted +5, Hinson +7, Paxton +10 - again, if we are just averaging their polling leads and not taking into consideration the disparities in popular votes to be cast.

Those leads would total 36, divided by 6 = 6 points.

The Moral of the Story

Don’t pee down my back and tell me it’s raining. Someone straddling the mainstream media and the phony polling apparatus needs to figure out how to present basic mathematical points to the people they are trying to deceive, because some of us have made quite a niche for ourselves exposing these lies.

If you want to read a lot more case studies of this sort, grab a copy of my best-selling book, The American War on Election Corruption. You’ll never see this world of lies the same way again.

Oh, and if you have it, please leave a written review. It will help get this book in the hands of more people that need to read it. Thanks!

Buy Book

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

That’s what happened with me and Rachel in December 2024 when she wanted to see New York City for the first time. We landed in Chicago and were beelining it to our connecting gate, only to find out the flight was delayed. We exercised a little tactical patience, only to find out it was delayed again. We looked at the weather and immediately knew what to do.

We rented a car one-way and covered the 800 miles to New York City in about 18 hours, including sleep. As such, we saw everything we wanted to see. Turns out we would have gotten there by air before we pulled into Newark to drop the car off - but there would have been no adventure and no story if we’d have stuck it out in Chicago with the risk of never getting to the Big Apple.

All of these things are great when talking about interesting and quirky life decisions. They ensure dullness never takes hold of one’s life, and besides, how many of you have slept in Lock Haven, Pennsylvania, for five hours? Making on-the-fly crazy decisions is not great when you’re talking about the operation of a functioning, healthy state that appears to have a fixation on making itself different and unique just for fun.

Which brings me once again to Alaska - The Last Frontier. I once served a tour of duty there in 2012-13 as a Captain, and it is where I was stationed when I put in my papers to leave Active Duty. I have been back twice as a tourist and will most definitely take Rachel there as I did to New York City. I just have little confidence that when I go, I’ll be taking her to a reliably red state as we have known it.

Alaska is run by idiots, plain and simple. It is one of the few states in which the wear and tear should be blamed on Republicans instead of Democrats. Arizona, with its McCainite Uniparty, and Texas, with its Bushies who keep inviting techies to bloat the urban cores and foreigners to push everyone else out to the countryside, are in the same boat - but not at the scale of Alaska with its tiny population and very few populated areas.

Years ago, when these virtual pages were in their infancy and Captain K’s Corner was just another voice in the wilderness, I wrote a satirical column that 14 people liked in which I wrote about what it would be like if California took every political action possible to turn itself into a red state:

I eventually revealed that I was writing about red Alaska taking every measure possible to ensure it becomes first competitive, then blue:

The Last Frontier, Alaska, is operating as the fictitious California above, taking extreme measures to legally turn itself “blue,” likely within the next decade. Here is some of the idiocy legally instituted in Alaska’s impotent legislature:

1) Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) automatic registration – On November 8, 2016, the same night Donald Trump was elected, Alaska’s voters approved Ballot Measure 1 (15PFVR), which automatically registers applicants for the PFD. The damage will be unveiled later in this article.

2) Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) – approved in 2020, and the first election using it will be run later in 2022 for the vacant U.S. House seat left behind by the deceased Don Young. Ranked Choice Voting allows a pathway for extreme candidates to supplant candidates who are most likely to be elected with strong pluralities, and practically entrenches incumbents in Democrat strongholds.

3) Experimentation with mail-in voting – as with RCV, mail-in voting will be the method for the U.S. House race coming later in 2022. With Alaska’s hostile climate and influence from west coast neighbors, it is only a matter of time until a full-on blitz begins to entrench mail-in voting.

This is not hyperbole. Alaska has many of the key ingredients in place to become another Colorado or Oregon. It has 80% of its population packed into the five most populated boroughs (county equivalents), a large Alaska Native population, no real adherence to standard Protestant Deep South style “conservatism” (although they love guns), and most importantly, new laws on the books that allow for stupid election outcomes like this one from 2022, when the Democrat Mary Peltola prevailed in a special election for U.S. House (which she sealed in the General Election months later):

You read that right. Republican candidates Nick Begich, the current Congressman from the Alaska At Large seat, and Sarah Palin took almost 3 of every 5 votes, but didn’t win because Alaska now has Ranked Choice Voting to redistribute votes and essentially elect Democrats. Can you think of any blue state in which this system of voting (operated municipally in places other than Alaska and Maine) accidentally elects Republicans instead of Democrats? Yeah, me neither:

Those who keep up with politics as a way of life realize Ranked Choice Voting was put into place to save Lisa Murkowski’s hide. I’m not sure it will save her the next time, but she also may be waiting, alongside Peltola, to see what happens this November in what has now become a must-watch Senate race thanks to the aforementioned GOP idiocy and the corruption of the state’s courts.

Enter Dan Sullivan. No, not the United States Senator. This Dan Sullivan:

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