The President of the United States has never relented on this topic. In fact, in the acknowledgments section of The American War on Election Corruption, I put it like this:

Despite significant pressure from the political establishment, he has never conceded the 2020 election that represents one of the most shameful chapters in American history. For his leadership in this regard, an entire nation owes him a debt of gratitude. Had he moved on from the 2020 election, any election integrity movement would be but a skeleton of what it is today.

Rachel and I had the chance to briefly speak with the President on May 1 prior to his event at The Villages, Florida:

The President was pleased to know that since the last time we spoke in person, I’ve upgraded my life by getting remarried to Rachel, and told me what a good job I’d done by doing that. Then he wanted to know about how things were going with Arizona, and without prompting, said he was “too big to rig” there in 2024 - which I agree with. He wanted to know how the races there were looking and what needed to be done to turn the tide in the midterms. It turns out that a huge week was just around the corner, yet what unfolds in the Grand Canyon State this week is still anyone’s guess.

Unfortunately, the President hasn’t been surrounded by the like-minded on elections, especially HIS 2020 election “loss.”

That looks like it is about to change, and there is nothing more noticeable than when a vital member of his inner circle does an about-face in a very public manner. You see, intelligence officers notice change. I wrote about the change to Georgia’s voter rolls between the 2016 and 2020 elections, and quickly made the assessment that Automatic Voter Registration was the culprit behind the explosion of the state’s rolls in 2020 after being given four years to spawn the credit line that would merge nicely with a 634% increase in mail-in voting to give Joe Biden a victory margin of 11,779 “votes” in a state Trump didn’t even need to invest in four years earlier. In combat, patrols note change in the villages they visit on a daily basis, and can tell you that when a place is busy every day at a certain time, except for that 300th day when everyone has ghosted the town, there is a high likelihood of an ambush because those about to attack have notified the locals to get the hell out.

If you listen closely, Susie Wiles, the President’s Chief of Staff, is now signaling that business is about to pick up on the rigged elections front. Just last year, in an interview with the President’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, Wiles maintained the position that the 2020 election was not fraudulently decided, which put most die-hard MAGA supporters on edge in a bad way. This is a direct quote from that interview after Lara asked her what the toughest conversation she ever had with Trump was:

The 2020 election. Coming to him after the 2020 election, in ’21, and telling him what he thought was the circumstance wasn't – which is how I got into all this.

Now Wiles is singing a different tune, and the impacts are potentially tremendous:

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Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since April: R+6,731

• Republicans made yet another gain, and one larger than March’s. The overall registration advantage for the Republican Party, thanks to this boost, is now over 1.5 million and expanding by the day. Incredibly, despite Florida’s growth and an approaching primary, Democrats lost 2,257 net registrations.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. At this point, Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

IOWA

Net Shift Since April: D+2,727

• This is the first technical Democrat net gain in raw numbers since I’ve been tracking these numbers in monthly reports after the 2024 election; however, it is purely a product of voter roll cuts. Both major parties lost registrations in massive numbers, and the overall roll shrank by more than 20,000. Because of this, the GOP advantage by percentage increased from R+10.9% to R+11.1%.

• Iowa has two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party.

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since April: D+9,604 Total, D+10,345 Active

• If you thought things looked bad last month, then you’ll want to gloss right over this summary on the Keystone State. Ahead of the May 19 primary, Democrats padded their active voter registration lead by over 10,000.

• Just as I explained last month, these numbers do not make sense based on registration trends elsewhere, even in places where Democrats are making temporary gains. In fact, I see no possibility that Oregon should be making Republican gains (it is) but Pennsylvania would be having a genuine change of course unrelated to an approaching election. Most of this shift appears to be Philadelphia-centric, and validating my point is the fact that Erie County has shifted Republican in the last quarter (since the February update), and Northampton County is generally treading water. There does not appear to be a legitimate coalition shift away from MAGA in Pennsylvania with the working-class voter.

• Democrats have still lost a ton of their dwindling advantage since the November 2024 election, and it is possible Pennsylvania is the new Ohio - a true national bellwether with an elastic independent voter base.

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since April: R+702

• The North Carolina GOP made a narrow gain in the overall voter registration lead, while stepping slightly backward in active registrations as voter roll maintenance takes place. The overall lead is now 116,437 to the right of the former GOP deficit at the time of the November 2024 election.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since April: D+450

• New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and in the first update since February, Democrats gained a net of 450 due strictly to voter roll maintenance. Both parties lost membership and the overall voter roll decreased narrowly. I expect to see a lot more volatility in the next update as the state gets ready for primaries later this summer.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for said Senate seat.

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since April: D+2,886

• The Secretary of State published the occasional update for all 15 counties last month, which holds the data I am supplying in this report and will continue to provide when available rather than adjusting on the fly to data from the two counties I can actively monitor for an unofficial count. Those two counties, Maricopa and Pima, are responsible for most of the Democrat gains in recent months. My analysis of the Maricopa County legislative districts suggests serious money and effort is being expended to amp up voter registration numbers in mostly blue districts.

• The next update for Arizona will likely drop in July, making it in time for the August report.

• Expect Democrats to pull out all the stops to save Katie Hobbs and her cohort of corrupt statewide officers this fall.

NEVADA

Net Shift Since April: D+1,474

• Nevada shifted back nicely for Democrats in April, although almost all of this gain is attributable to their efforts in Clark County (Las Vegas metro) ahead of the June 9 primary. Republicans continue to deepen their advantages throughout the crimson interior of the state post-maintenance.

• Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.

The American War on Election Corruption, my bestseller, is now approaching 10,000 units sold. Please consider buying a copy for yourself or those who need to be persuaded that election reform is an issue of national survival today.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Things are moving so fast there that I’ve already fallen behind and have to revise my South Carolina forecast to optimistic, since it is clear they are now planning to draw Jim Clyburn out of SC-6. For those hand-wringers in the audience, Clyburn “only” won by 20.8%, while surrounded by red districts on every side, including two that went red by more than 27 points:

Clyburn’s tenure in Congress, punctuated by his crowning of Joe Biden in the 2020 primary, is most certainly coming to a close. That means the Deep South redistricting plan post-Callais looks to be coming along like this:

Alabama: +1 GOP

Louisiana: +1 GOP

South Carolina: +1 GOP

Tennessee: +1 GOP

Georgia is out this year, and Mississippi is still kicking the tires on whether or not they can proceed post-primary and get Bennie Thompson out of Congress in MS-2. But here’s the thing, friends - Alabama and Louisiana are handing Democrats a free seat in both of their states. They definitely have the terrain and base support to go 7-0 and 6-0, respectively, rather than 6-1 and 5-1. What do you think would happen if they were blue states? Let me show you:

The graphic above is partly low-quality slop, given that Vermont and Delaware have just one at-large seat each for the U.S. House, but the point remains: when the Democrats have the opportunity to run up the score, they don’t miss. Media pundits should be proclaiming the merciful nature of the Baptists (and Catholics) down in the Deep South for cutting off a piece of Saul’s robe when in fact they could have relegated all Democrat U.S. House representation to the Stone Ages.

The gradual changes are starting to impact a bend in Polymarket’s midterm prediction bets:’

Someone tell Gavin Newsom just how fairly those Republican states are actually acting:

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

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Mid-Atlantic

New England

INTRODUCTION

Pennsylvania has one of the fairest maps in the country, and one that has afforded a strong GOP advantage (10-7) in America’s most critical battleground state. Pennsylvania has a strong Republican shift in voter registration dating back to 2010, but Democrats are starting to get back into the game thanks to the upcoming May 19 primary elections. You’ll see that damage in Saturday’s voter registration update. Unfortunately, with Josh Shapiro up for reelection, it’s the GOP on defense this cycle.

Here is my evaluation of Pennsylvania’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

PENNSYLVANIA

PA-2: Brendan Boyle (D), running for 7th term in Philadelphia, +43.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-3: Open seat, Dwight Evans (D) retiring from core Philadelphia, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE DEM

PA-4: Madeleine Dean (D), running for 5th term, +18.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-5: Mary Gay Scanlon (D), running for 6th term, +30.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-6: Chrissy Houlahan (D), running for 5th term, +12.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-9: Dan Meuser (R), running for 5th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-11: Lloyd Smucker (R), running for 6th term, +25.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-12: Summer Lee (D), running for 3rd term, +12.8% margin in 2024 is a leaner in a Republican year, but not for 2026 - SAFE

PA-13: John Joyce (R), running for 5th term, +48.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-14: Guy Reschenthaler (R), running for 5th term, +33.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-15: Glenn Thompson (R), running for 10th term, +43.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-16: Mike Kelly (R), running for 9th term, +27.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D), running for 3rd term, +7.8% margin in 2024 makes for a leaner in a Republican year, but not in 2026 - SAFE

PENNSYLVANIA SUMMARY

Democrat 7

Republican 6

Leaner 1 (PA-1)

Decisive 3 (PA-7, PA-8, PA-10)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on PA-7, PA-8, and PA-10 (decisive), as well as PA-2 (Republican leaner). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

What About Fetterman?

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A .272 batting average presents slightly better than one-in-four odds of a hitter getting a hit, meaning to put a ball in play that allows him to reach base safely without the benefit of a fielding error or fielder’s choice. He will make an out in more than seven-in-ten plate appearances; yet, his statistical performance is consistent enough to raise alarm bells for an opposing manager and take him as a serious threat. Currently, Polymarket bettors give Republicans a 17% chance to keep the House majority, which is up a few ticks in recent days as redistricting news makes its way across the Deep South, and Virginia shows flashing lights that the 10-1 map may not come to fruition.

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Other markets are starting to tick up, showing Republicans over 20%. We are on the cusp of a major shift in the action which stands to put a GOP hold on the table with far more likelihood than Cabrera’s fluke single 34 years ago. One major decision, coupled with numerous smaller nudges to the right, could shatter what we expected about this cycle and create an entirely new campaign with just 6 months to go. In a great twist of irony and fortunate scheduling, I met the lead plaintiff of Callais v. Louisiana, Bert Callais, at my book signing for The American War on Election Corruption in Baton Rouge last night:

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Here are the EIGHT major decision points I am waiting on to see if we are in “just another midterm” or converging into a dogfight.

Florida’s +4 Play

I covered Florida’s big redistricting push last Wednesday:

The new map, which suggests three GOP pickups and a tossup that could go red, is approved by the legislature and awaiting the imminent signature of Governor Ron DeSantis. Leftist and Democrat-aligned groups are already lining up their legal challenges, but most people expect the new maps to stick. If Republicans manage to pick up all four seats they’re eyeballing (a challenge in a left-leaning midterm), then it would fully wipe out Virginia’s gains if that map sticks (read on).

Louisiana Lightning

Callais’s efforts to bring about maps not centered around equal outcomes, but rather equal opportunity, presents me with the most analytical curveballs in what has become a rapidly changing situation. Louisiana is force to redistrict based on the Supreme Court’s order. They will absolutely improve from a 4-2 Republican map to at least 5-1, but everyone under the sun knows a blue state in the same situation would draw a 6-0 map. Republicans can do the same by creatively splitting New Orleans, no matter how much of a hissy fit the left-wingers in America decide to throw.

Conservative groups and Louisianans must exert maximum pressure on legislators to produce a 6-0 map and get the residents of New Orleans out from under at least some of the Democrat rule they’ve buried themselves beneath.

Verdict: Optimistic

Mississippi Miracle?

Mississippi, saddled with Bennie Thompson since 1993 (my Congressman growing up), has hinted at redrawing districts after the Callais decision, but is going to have trouble turning MS-2 red this cycle. From Mississippi Today:

President Donald Trump is urging Mississippi officials to redraw the state’s four congressional districts as part of his national push for Republican states to flip Democratic districts to the GOP before this year’s federal midterm elections, several state and federal officials familiar with the communication told Mississippi Today.

But there would be significant hurdles in the Magnolia State, and it’s unclear if the state’s Republican leaders are on board with the plan. Mississippi has already conducted primary elections for congressional races, so to redraw the districts, state lawmakers and the governor would need to invalidate the primary elections.

Erasing primary results would be unprecedented, and it’s unclear if that action would survive a legal challenge. It’s also unclear if Mississippi’s three incumbent Republican congressmen would be on board with having to run again in new primaries, a costly endeavor.

It’s not completely out of the question, but the fact that primaries have already passed makes it unlikely Mississippi will get to contribute to the 2026 counterattack; however, Thompson’s seat is as good as gone by 2028.

Verdict: Pessimistic

Walking in Memphis

Tennessee’s legislature opens a special session tomorrow to get on board with pushing the state toward a 9-0 Republican map, wiping out Democrat control of Memphis. This is a near certainty and a +1 for the GOP.

Verdict: Optimistic

Alabama Jammer

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The game is never over until the last man is out.

I can’t seem to make anyone happy in 2026 with my forecasting models. Hardcore MAGA wants me to be more bullish even when 92 years of electoral history urges restraint. Left-wingers thinking they’re going to get a 2006 wave can’t see past their own ideologies to recognize neither party has a high ceiling (nor a low floor) thanks to the gerrymandering implemented almost everywhere.

The only constant in my analysis is that I remain committed to accuracy. I want to be right, because in being right, I identify the most actionable paths toward the goal. This intermediate goal is to ensure the President doesn’t get repeatedly impeached and harassed by a Democrat House or have to deal with a Democrat Senate that will stonewall important proceedings, such as the rumored replacement of at least one Supreme Court Justice.

I urge all to follow along in my newsletter as I walk you through the shifting sands of the 2026 midterm environment. So far, I’ve IPB’d (Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield) two regions to identify the playable seats:

Mid-Atlantic (16 DEM, 3 REP, 1 Leaner, 1 Decisive)

New England (19 DEM, 0 REP, 1 Leaner, 1 Decisive)

Total 35 DEM, 3 REP, 2 Leaner, 2 Decisive)

In a way, I’m starting with the bad news, and that disparity above in the seat splits should be enough to justify anything the Southern states may do now that Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act is on the ropes, as I said it would be.

Don’t look now… but those Southern states, prompted by the DOJ, are getting with the President’s program:

It seems, just maybe, there has been a plan all along.

If Virginia’s scam redistricting, which violates the state’s constitution, is shut down, then the markets are likely to start pricing in substantial GOP momentum. There’s little for certain in the world of politics, but when Speaker Mike Johnson says he’s confident the Republicans will win, then maybe you should listen.

He said the same exact thing in 2024, and was right. Maybe, like yours truly, the Speaker would rather be accurate than first to spout off about something that isn’t fully developed. Those gaps are filling in, and I will be doing my damndest to keep you apprised of fact. Thank you for your support of this newsletter!

I am pleased to announce I will be taking a very active role in helping target the most decisive of seats. We are all in on repelling the left in what we pray will truly become the Golden Age.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Polymarket bettors think Democrats have an 84% chance of flipping the House. These assessments should help give you a better idea of how things will shake out in November:

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New England

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INTRODUCTION

I am grouping Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey into a region called Mid-Atlantic; I separated New Jersey from this region in my 2024 election evaluations thanks to the tighter-than-usual finish requiring more detailed analysis. None of the three have backed a GOP presidential nominee since 1988, and as you may expect, are heavily gerrymandered from Democrats. Kamala Harris won their electoral votes 27 to 0 over President Trump. Here are my evaluations for the 2024 presidential races in the region:

Delaware and Maryland

New Jersey

Delaware has just one at-large seat due to its small population size. Maryland held off on a map that would guarantee them an 8-0 Democrat outcome, supposedly on a handshake agreement with the do-nothing Indiana Senate; despite Trump’s gains in New Jersey in 2024, Republicans have their work cut out for them with a very tough map cut generously for team blue.

Analysis

DELAWARE

Assessment: With Wilmington dominant in the northern end of the state, there is no race in the First State - despite the steady GOP registration gains.

DE-At Large: Sarah McBride (D), running for 2nd term, +15.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MARYLAND

Assessment: One of the most hopeless GOP presidential prospects on the map has a red landscape from east to west, but is overwhelmed by the D.C. sprawl.

MD-1: Andy Harris (R), running for 9th term, +22.1% margin in 2024 - represents the Eastern Shore and had his seat saved by the Indiana handshake - SAFE

MD-2: Johnny Olszewski (D), running for 2nd term, +18.7% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MD-3: Sarah Elfreth (D), running for 2nd term, +21.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MD-4: Glenn Ivey (D), running for 3rd term, +77.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MD-5: Open seat, Steny Hoyer (D) retiring after 23 terms, +35.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

MD-6: April McClain Delaney (D), running for 2nd term, +6.4% margin in 2024; a leaner in a Republican year, but for 2026 - SAFE

MD-7: Kweisi Mfume (D), representing Baltimore and running for 5th term, +63.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MD-8: Jamie Raskin (D), horribly corrupt and running for 6th term, +56.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NEW JERSEY

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Purchase Book

You may have noticed I began rolling out my 2026 House previews earlier this month, starting with an overview of the “safe” seats in New England. As I make my way down the East Coast, I’m going to have to take a “wait and see” approach on two important states - Virginia and Florida. Despite not being a battleground state, I’ve had to spend an inordinate amount of time covering the Old Dominion because of the rampant corruption there. My latest coverage of Virginia is an autopsy of the redistricting referendum, which passed by roughly 3 points last Tuesday:

UPDATES

Virginia

Ken Cuccinelli was Johnny-on-the-spot when it came to legal recourse in Virginia, and he began putting truth bombs downrange immediately:

There’s always hope, and Ken Cuccinelli lays it out:

The first three points laid out by Cuccinelli, who nearly won the Virginia governorship in 2013, have to do with procedural items and timing-related complaints the court had every opportunity to rule on months ago. The fourth point, however, is the most effective:

Art. II, §6 requires that “every electoral district shall be composed of contiguous and compact territory.” The proposed congressional maps violate this contiguity requirement (rather badly).

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The next day (April 22), a judge in Tazewell County put a stop to any certification of the referendum’s results. This sent the online left into a tailspin, and just two days ago, the Virginia Supreme Court began hearing arguments about the referendum (such as those Cuccinelli outlines above). Jonathan Turley has pointed out Attorney General Jay Jones’s weakness in defending the ridiculous language used for the referendum, and the legality of even launching such a ballot measure:

Uncertainty over this process has made its way into the betting markets. Polymarket bettors are bailing out of their once-certain positions that the 10-1 Democrat map was going to be in play in November:

The best indicator that the Democrat takeover is in serious peril is yesterday’s announcement that the Virginia Supreme Court declined to lift Tazewell’s injunction.

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In the map above, you can see Shindand in the far west, up against the Iranian border. It lies at the far southern end of Herat Province and in the 2010-11 surge, which took place during my time in-country, it wasn’t engulfed in kinetic activity (constant chaos and fighting). The area was a trafficking corridor for arms and personnel coming in and out of Iran. Our aviation task force, Task Force Comanche, operated out of Shindand Air Base. See the primitive conditions below:

We took the occasional rocket attack (which stopped once my intel section pegged the timing pattern and the insurgent responsible had his arms blown off), but most fighting was to our south in Helmand Province, where the Marines and British duked it out, or to our north in Badghis Province. You can read about some of these combat stories in The American War on Election Corruption if you are interested.

When we arrived in June 2010, we took over from an American unit called Task Force Ready, based out of Germany. The sleeping tents were primitive, with limited cooling capability, showers were makeshift, and very few hard buildings were available to house operations staff. Our operations center was in the air tower, and we were piled on top of one another trying to make things happen day in and day out. Perimeter security was weak. There were jersey barriers here and there to stop rockets and vehicles, and HESCO baskets holding mounds of dirt to stop bullets and, when placed in a line, incursions on the base itself. A smattering of fencing and barbed wire was all we had to protect a military base with a huge perimeter surpassing that of many American airports in size.

For most of my tour, I straddled the day-night shift. I was proficient enough to be on the lead shift, even when I had a captain over me (I was a First Lieutenant during the tour), but my intelligence summary (INTSUM) was my bread and butter, and it went out at the stroke of midnight as the most widely disseminated of its kind in Regional Command-West. I would immerse myself in the intelligence reporting every evening as I built the INTSUM, and a constant threat appeared dozens of times as the months passed by:

SPECTACULAR ATTACK BEING PLANNED ON SHINDAND AIR BASE, OVER 500 INSURGENTS, HEAVY MACHINE GUNS, ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADES, AND SUICIDE VEHICLE-BORNE IEDS.

I took this reporting seriously, because in 2009, Combat Outpost Keating had been overrun by a massive Taliban force in similar fashion. They had used terrain to overwhelm Americans on the base and temporarily seized it, before being run off. The base was subsequently destroyed by American troops after all the damage and death. Watch the movie The Outpost to see how horrific this type of attack is.

I pressed my commander, who took the threat seriously because he trusted me, to lobby the generals in charge to fortify Shindand Air Base. Months went by with excuses like, “We are hiring more Afghans to stand guard” taking the place of action (as if Afghans are who I want watching my back, anyway). I became so frustrated that one night I sat down to craft a master PowerPoint deck filled with maps and graphics highlighting the deficiencies in our security and called it “If I Were the Taliban…”.

Within weeks, millions were invested in the security of Shindand Air Base, and with no soft target remaining, a spectacular attack never occurred.

I had planned to attend Charlie Kirk’s memorial service in Glendale, Arizona, on September 21, 2025. Rachel and I drove up from Tucson and on the way, it became clear that we had a bit of a SNAFU. Rachel had not checked a box on her legislative ticket form for a “plus one” (me), and despite knowing tons of higher-ups at TPUSA and the state senator handling the legislators attending, couldn’t get me into the building. Yes, me. Seth Keshel, commended by the President of the United States, author, and husband of an Arizona representative. The combination of Secret Service, federal and state law enforcement agencies, and private security would not bend the rules.

Why?

Because too many important people were in that building, including the President and Vice President of the United States, to make any exceptions. You make an exception for me, then you make an exception for the next guy, and the next, and the next, all the way until you have a gap in security. The moral of the story is that in security operations, the enemy seeks to exploit any vulnerability he can find to attack his target(s).

Which brings me to the present moment…

Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner at the Washington Hilton.

Cole Allen, 31, deranged libtard from California, ran right through a security perimeter staffed by Secret Service agents. While he was caught before he could reach the guests and begin shooting at a target-rich environment - what if he’d have breached the next ring of security as he did the first? We can call this a success all we damn well want to, but I think it boils down more to dumb luck or even Divine protection.

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As part of my 2024 Election Compendium, I studied every state. It was a useful exercise to compare and contrast states by region. After all, if the wrench turners in Pennsylvania don’t like a candidate, then their counterparts in Ohio won’t, either. The same goes for the southern black vote. They all loved Obama in 2008, and it showed in every state in the Deep South. Their enthusiasm faded by 2012, and the states once again mirrored each other. Here is a quick overview of black population distribution by county:

Now, I’m going to show you just how badly Kamala Harris performed in the Deep South by showing you a map I made showing the change in Democrat votes for the 2024 election compared with the previous presidential cycle (or two cycles):

Pictured above, you have Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, north Florida, and a few counties of far western North Carolina. Those dark green counties are counties in which Kamala Harris had fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016. In the light green counties, she had fewer than Biden. The blue shades, of which there are just 26 outside of Georgia, represent vote gains for Harris over Biden.

Georgia should stand out to anyone with a pulse.

Harris’s green-shaded performance throughout the Deep South aligns perfectly with very low interest from the black voter. Yet those black voters (or liberal whites) had no issue turning out in Georgia for her, as she zoomed past Joe Biden’s 2024 vote total and gave Trump a run for his money in a state he didn’t have to campaign for in 2016. Why do I think that is?

I would appear to me that they have three ballot collection rings, at minimum, operating in or around Georgia. They are labeled above in red lettering:

Zone A - Savannah-based, up and down the Atlantic coastal counties, bleeding slightly into South Carolina - and then a cessation of Democrat vote-gaining to the immediate west.

Zone B - Jacksonville-based, up the Atlantic coastal counties, saturating three nearby Florida counties despite massive Democrat atrophy in the state everywhere else, including South Florida and the heavily black Panhandle counties.

Zone C - Atlanta, which we can’t forget about even if we tried. Clearly a large concentration of subordinate ballot collection rings, causing strong Democrat vote gains throughout almost all of North Georgia, right up to the state lines in every direction.

In North Carolina, I think you have an entirely separate operating happening that was owed to the loosening of mail-in ballot laws after Hurricane Helene. The biggest tell that Georgia has a massive ballot trafficking operation, outside of the major Democrat failures to move black votes in the rest of the Deep South, is that Georgia’s interior matches the rest of the southern states - nowhere to go but down for Harris.

We see a slight increase in votes in the Macon area, thanks to the ease associated in basing out of urban areas to collect ballots, but those counties where the devil went down to fiddle with some country boy that take serious effort to reach, which little juice for the squeeze… are as quiet as a mouse. They are not easy to get to and carry little incentive to disturb - and that is all it takes to make the data normalize with the entire region.

In God We Trust - all others bring data and read The American War on Election Corruption.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Where is the breaking point on mail-in ballots?

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Since the release of The American War on Election Corruption (please buy and/or review today), I have resumed my use of X. I hate it, think it is toxic and filled with way more horrible people than any platform other than Bluesky, and have seen many people mentally crack using the platform while being spoon-fed its algorithms - but alas, it is where the world meets to talk shop. One of my most viral posts ever, with over 900,000 views as of this morning, refers to the mail-in ballot Tuesday night in Virginia:

Yesterday, I checked the engagement on the post, and noticed that Turning Point USA “strategist” R.C. Maxwell quoted my post and commented as follows:

This response by such a large account warranted this response:

The following screenshot captures the last reasonable exchange before Maxwell resorted to ad-hominem attacks, anointed himself an inspirational source contrasted with my “nihilism” and marketing of a “$20 paperback”:

You can read the entire exchange under this post. Not lost on me is the irony of attacking another man committed to defeating the left for how he makes a living, while collecting what is likely a nice check from one of the most well-funded organizations around. Rather than spend all day arguing with a know-it-all, I am sending a gift by way of my other half, the Honorable Rep. Rachel Keshel, via her AZGOP colleagues who know Maxwell. Don’t ever say I’m not generous:

What’s The Point Here?

Maxwell summoned Tyler Bowyer and Cliff Maloney in his initial comment; I know both of them, and as far as I know, am not on either man’s shit list (at least not yet). I’ve had this conversation with both of them, and no one has ever been able to effectively silo me into a camp of “don’t play the game.” I quite literally crafted a perfect electoral map predicting a 312-226 map based on exactly what my five plus years of research into the topic of modern election rigging told me - and it still matters today.

Here is a simple reality pertinent to 2026:

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The “Yes” referendum position, which allows the Virginia legislature to ditch the most balanced district maps in America and draw new maps to “restore fairness” (as the ballot language put it), has prevailed - and by a margin of 3.2% and 97,597 votes as things stand this morning.

All the data going in (polls excluded) suggested this would be a tight race. I wrote about it last week and, despite many concerns I didn’t list specifically, knew this would come down to Election Day mobilization and how much the election skewed right of recent results:

The answer was by a lot, but not enough. Here is the swing by county/independent city from 2024, when President Trump lost by 5.8% to Kamala Harris:

There are two reads here:

• Nearly the entirety of RoVA (Rest of Virginia) ran well to the right of its 2024 presidential numbers (Trump won the counties outside of NoVA collectively), suggesting strong resistance to the looming 10-1 Democrat gerrymander.

• NoVA (as a whole) zoomed to the left of its 2024 presidential margins, either signifying that it approves of taking away the representation of its southern neighbors in favor of themselves, or perhaps proving unintentionally that the sustained heartbeat of mail-in ballot collection is reliant upon how much mail can be collected in the 10 counties and independent cities making up the region.

Absent relief from the Virginia Supreme Court, this is going to be the result of the first statewide April election in the Commonwealth’s history:

How We Can Spot the Democrat Cheat-Fest

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That same strategic viewpoint allows for key pieces of legislation to pass through flimsy majorities, and America to be made great again through sheer willpower, decades of civic inaction be damned. Back in the real world, President Trump has reminded our people exactly why the Iranian quagmire is what it is:

Reagan buzzed the tower in 1981 and told that regime there was a new sheriff in town, but decades have passed and Iran has morphed into a key enabler of Chinese military ambition set to cause major heartache for American geopolitical strength by mid-century. You can read my March piece about why actions in and against Iran are more linked to China than they are to Israel, or the latest brain rot available on X, here:

With that said, my support or understanding for the military efforts in Iran has limits. I believe the current fears of the MAGA coalition over Iran stem from any combination of three factors:

• Fear that U.S. forces will become entrenched in a prolonged conflict (regular or irregular conflict)

• Prolonged disruption of commodity prices (fuel cost)

• Being misled by other nations as to the true threat of Iran and capitulating to “globalist” causes

Trump, on the other hand, has promised to bomb Iran for decades if necessary, and has campaigned for a decade on having a military bigger and stronger than anything America has ever had, which is saying something. That doesn’t exactly seem like he’s viewed the Iranian regime as a bunch of peace-loving hippies trying to spread love and good vibes when they say “Death to America.” The ugly truth is always somewhere in between the extremes, and if your negative perception of the efforts in Iran is tied to how you view Israel, I would encourage you to adopt my viewpoint:

Don’t trust any foreign government no matter their relationship to the United States. Don’t even trust your own government. Be an equal opportunity hater.

Here is what I had to say on March 2 about successful military outcomes:

• No conventional forces deployed on the ground

• Khamenei and line of succession eliminated

• Pro-West head of state in power

• Economic benefit to the United States

Seven weeks later, there are still no conventional forces deployed on the ground (there are most certainly special operators and teams), Khamenei is long dead and there has been enough attrition that the foundation of the regime is cracking and bending to pressure, and the current situation in the Middle East appears to be the leverage point as to how the economics of this dust-up will shake out. The only glaring missed objective here is the third - a pro-West head of state in power.

In order to get that, it will require the Iranian people doing the dirty (and bloody) work of eradicating all traces of the regime and preventing the IRGC from holding power, or it will require a lot of American lives lost in conventional ground conflict and the ensuing counterinsurgency operation. The President knows that, and I am confident the second option is no option at all. He also knows that uprooting a regime through air strikes and naval maneuvering isn’t going to happen. Online bettors don’t see the regime completely falling anytime soon, either:

In my book, The American War on Election Corruption, I wrote extensively about my time in Afghanistan, especially about the moment in which I realized we would never win there. That moment ushered in the beginning of the end of my military career, which would drag on for another 3 years before I made it final that I had no further interest in investing my prime years in an unwinnable effort to pacify a warlord-run nation. These things were clear to me after reading a book you must own, Counterinsurgency in Modern Warfare:

Why Counterinsurgency Fails and What it Means for Iran

History is full of counterinsurgency efforts, and almost all of them have been miserable failures.

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While we are used to having issues with courts failing to make the right calls, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Scott Blaney got it right. PBS has a good summary of the decision:

Justin Heap, the Republican recorder in Maricopa County, sued the predominantly Republican county board of supervisors last summer alleging it had illegally taken control of certain aspects of election administration. Heap claimed the board transferred funding, IT staff and some key functions — including management of ballot drop boxes and establishing early voting sites — away from his office through an agreement negotiated with his predecessor, whom he had recently defeated in a GOP primary.

Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Scott Blaney mostly sided with Heap’s office in his ruling, which was filed Thursday but appeared on the public docket Friday. The board of supervisors “acted unlawfully and exceeded its statutory authority by seizing the Recorder’s personnel, systems and equipment and refusing to return them” to the recorder, he wrote.

Blaney also ruled that the recorder’s office is responsible for overseeing in-person early voting, among other duties, while the board is responsible for other operations, such as selecting Election Day voting locations, supplying polling locations and hiring poll workers.

“The Board’s assertion of plenary authority over election administration through its general supervisory powers is inconsistent with Arizona law,” the judge wrote.

Heap called it a “clear and decisive victory for the rule of law”:

“The court confirmed that the Board cannot override state law, use funding as leverage, or take control of election duties assigned to the Recorder. This ruling restores both the authority and the resources necessary for my office to do its job.”

Hopefully, with a third of his term now elapsed thanks to the scrap with the Vichy GOP-led board, Heap can now finish his copy of The American War on Election Corruption and get back to eliminating as much corruption as possible for as long as he has to do the job.

Legislative Book Update

There has a been a strong response to my idea for outfitting as many key state officials and legislators as possible with The American War on Election Corruption, and I will have some exciting news on the responses soon. If you want to sponsor copies for your delegations, contact me so I can update this chart:

Eastern U.S. Book Tour, May 1-8

I will be on east at the beginning of May for eight book events. Seven of those are open to the public:

May 1 - The Villages, FL

May 2 - Gulf Breeze, FL

May 3 - Baton Rouge, LA

May 4 - Forsyth County, GA (flyer forthcoming)

May 5 - Carteret County, NC (private event)

May 6 - Bridgewater Township, NJ (flyer forthcoming)

May 7 - Forest Park, PA (flyer forthcoming)

May 8 - Butler County, PA (flyer forthcoming)

Substack Live

Please check your inbox from earlier this morning for a link to today’s Substack Live, starting at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. I’ll catch you all up on the news from my point of view and take questions.

As always, thank you so much for your support of my newsletter and your commitment to the cause of liberty. I remain in the fight and grateful for you all.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

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INTRODUCTION

The states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont make up New England, the least religious region of the United States and the most staunchly Democrat-voting bloc of states anywhere in America despite having all backed Ronald Reagan in 1984 and all but Massachusetts and Rhode Island behind George H. W. Bush in 1988. Kamala Harris won their electoral votes 32 to 1 over President Trump, who managed to snag the single electoral vote of Maine’s Second Congressional District. Here are my evaluations for the 2024 presidential races in the region:

New England

New Hampshire

New England has come under fire after Democrats complained about Texas’s redistricting efforts, mainly because they control 21 of 21 possible U.S. House seats (which makes Susan Collins the only Republican in Congress from New England). Is this uniform control set to be disrupted in 2026?

Analysis

CONNECTICUT

Assessment: Democrats certain to hold all 5 U.S. House seats in Connecticut, led by five incumbents running in a left-favorable midterm.

CT-1: John Larson (D), running for 15th term, +28.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CT-2: Joe Courtney (D), running for 11th term, +16.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CT-3: Rosa DeLauro (D), poster child for term limits running for 19th term, +17.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CT-4: James Himes (D), running for 10th term, +23.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CT-5: Jahana Hayes (D), running for 5th term, +6.8% margin in 2024; her relatively lean margin from 2024 and razor close margin in 2022 would have this seat in the “leaner” or even “decisive” category in a red wave year, but her two-time opponent, George Logan, isn’t running and it’s not a right-favorable year - SAFE

MAINE

Assessment: Democrats certain to hold ME-1; ME-2 factors as one of the most important races in 2026, after being one of the most suspect in 2024.

Here is the safe seat:

ME-1: Chellie Pingree (D), running for 10th term, +22.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MASSACHUSETTS

Assessment: A perfect 9-0 Democrat gerrymander, which is not so hard to do given that no GOP presidential nominee has so much as carried a single county since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Many seats go uncontested.

MA-1: Richard Neal (D), running for 20th term, +25.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MA-2: James McGovern (D), running for 16th term, +37.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MA-3: Lori Trahan (D), running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

MA-4: Jake Auchincloss (D), running for 4th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

MA-5: Katherine Clark (D), running for 8th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

MA-6: Open seat, Seth Moulton (D) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE DEM

MA-7: Ayanna Pressley (D), one of the most radical members of Congress and running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

MA-8: Stephen Lynch (D), running for 14th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MA-9: William Keating (D), running for 9th term, +13.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Assessment: New England’s most competitive state offers some hope, but the 2026 midterm dynamics may complicate things. Because incumbent Chris Pappas is retiring in NH-1 to run for the U.S. Senate and liberal Republican John Sununu appears to be running a strong campaign, I am assessing NH-1 as a “leaner,” albeit a bit of a stretch for the GOP and hinging on how primaries turn out.

Here is the safe seat:

NH-2: Maggie Goodlander (D), running for 2nd term, +5.9% margin in 2024; this would likely be a decisive race in a right-favorable midterm, but her incumbency and the 2026 dynamics make it a bridge too far - SAFE

RHODE ISLAND

Assessment: Rhode Island skillfully divided its districts through Providence, but RI-2 was tight in 2022 as an open seat. Under the right circumstances (good GOP nominee and right election cycle) and with continued party registration shifting favoring Republicans, RI-2 could become a leaner.

For now:

RI-1: Gabe Amo (D), running for 3rd term, +31.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE

RI-2: Seth Magaziner (D), running for 3rd term, +16.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

VERMONT

Assessment: Vermont would vote for Pol Pot if he said mean things about Trump. Their at-large seat is safer than safe.

VT-At Large: Becca Balint (D), running for 3rd term, +32.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NEW ENGLAND SUMMARY

Democrat 19

Republican 0

Leaner 1 (NH-1)

Decisive 1 (ME-2)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NH-1 and ME-2. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Even if the GOP executes that plan perfectly and only focuses on seats that are winnable, the historical odds still heavily favor Democrats taking over the House next January. The silver lining here is that, thanks to extensive gerrymandering in red and blue states alike, neither party has a high ceiling nor a low floor. I suspect strongly that the winner of the House majority will hold somewhere between 220-229 seats (218 needed for majority). With all of these factors at play, I still give Democrats a 75/25 edge to flip the House - which is 12% lower probability than history would give them to do it based on historical returns. Bettors on Polymarket favor them even more than I do:

That’s the good news.

The bad news comes if and when Virginia’s tyrannical legislature and governor succeed in ramming through a special amendment next Tuesday, April 21, which would sidestep the state’s independent redistricting commission and create a congressional map likely to yield a 10 to 1 Democrat advantage in U.S. House seats. As things stand today, Democrats hold 6 of the state’s 11 districts; if the district lines don’t change, I have Democrats down for 5 guaranteed, with Republicans at 3 guaranteed, and 3 more up for grabs - all GOP defenses. Either way, 8 to 3 seems to be the worst case scenario as things stand today, with 7 to 4 Democrat the most likely outcome.

That all changes if this amendment passes next week - and would move my forecast to an overwhelming Democrat likelihood to flip the House majority. Passage of the amendment via special election, and with the results being upheld in the Supreme Court (which could technically still strike it down after the fact), would result in the most extreme gerrymander in the United States in a state Kamala Harris couldn’t even win by six points.

So, will it pass?

ANALYSIS

Everyone putting money down on the Virginia referendum is gambling in the purest form and throwing money at the wall. This is a tough outcome to peg, unlike the Virginia gubernatorial race last year which was always going to the party not in the White House as it has 12 of 13 times since 1977. There is no party registration in Virginia, so all anyone has to go on right now are polls. We all know how polls go.

Want to be optimistic for Republicans? Here’s a February poll from Roanoke College showing NO (the good guys in this race) leading 52% to 44%. Want to see a counterpoint? Here’s The Washington Post off the top rope with a 52% to 47% poll favoring YES. Keep in mind, however, that the yes-favoring poll lands within the margin of error and signifies a dead heat.

Clearly, the polling is inconclusive, like it almost always is. I will only ever care about polling when it is overwhelming and consistent, or when cross-tabs show a persistent trend the top lines can’t fudge. With polling unreliable for this race, that gives us great news. It means we have a ballgame on our hands. What are the real facts?

X account “Josh” (@jrl_josh) is a great one to follow for the duration of this special election. He spoon-feeds his audience with daily maps and data showing exactly where the votes are coming from. Here’s yesterday’s update:

The GOP districts, per Josh, have a raw turnout edge of +46,097 over the Democrat districts, or +4.7%.

Here is how these districts voted in 2024 for the U.S. House - a Democrat margin of +3.8% - two points to the right of the Trump-Harris margin (important):

With the lone exception of VA-4, all Democrat districts are lagging GOP-won districts. VA-3, centered on Newport News in the southeast and 43% black, couldn’t give a hoot in hell about this election, and sits over 16,000 ballots behind the next most terrible turnout, VA-8 (Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church).

But even if the red districts are running ahead, aren’t there still enough Democrats to get the job done?

Optimistic Case

• Election Day turnout - always favors the conservative side or cause. With Republican districts running almost 5 points ahead of Democrat districts already, this suggests there should be a widening of this extending through next Tuesday. In 2024, the Democrat-won districts cast 51.8% of all ballots, an advantage of 3.6% over the Republican-won districts (8.3% left of where we are today). The results (D+3.8%) were almost dead even. With GOP districts having a solid turnout edge and the most decisive Democrat districts in the toilet for turnout, this is a very positive indicator.

• Rightward traction - the key point of this analysis lies in the detachment from top-of-the-ticket partisan races (Harris vs. Trump, Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears, etc.) and comparing it to known points of reference. Here are the results of 2020’s Question One - which passed with an overwhelming +31.4% margin, expressing Virginians’ desire to have an independent redistricting commission draw district lines:

Only Arlington County (Biden +58.1%) voted against the measure, and by a narrow margin. Keep in mind, this result ran 41.5% right of the inflated Biden +10.1% margin over Trump from the 2020 quasi election. With a nearly five-point GOP district turnout advantage right now, a close pairing between the turnout differential and the final U.S. House results in Virginia in 2024, and the likelihood that the above map (heavily in favor of an independent commission) portends a rightward skewing demanding the blues be less blue and the reds be redder (in line with polling suggestions), that leads me to believe this race favors “No” at a glance and certainly rules out a landslide for “Yes.”

Counterpoints and Conclusion

There exists the possibility that the ballot language (restoring “fairness” and other Democrat-aligned bullshit) could confuse voters, and there is most certainly the fact that Virginia’s no-excuse mail-in balloting system waits in the wings to trip up a close race:

Either way, the mechanics of this race don’t look good for Democrats or “Yes,” and Spanberger with her poor approval numbers most certainly doesn’t help the cause. The race is 100% winnable for “No,” but maximum effort by county GOP affiliates must be expended to get every last conservative voter to the polls, and it would also be nice if some of these mega-GOP donors with billions burning holes in pockets could step up - because they are being massively outspent by a side that wants to turn the land of Washington, Jefferson, Henry, and Madison into a Third World hellhole.

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

My economic model is simple, straightforward, and transparent. I charge $75/year for an annual subscription to this newsletter, or $12/month if savings aren’t your thing. I have mapping services available for campaigns, which vary in price, book sales, and modest fees I haven’t adjusted since 2021 (inflation be damned) for speaking events. My meager payouts from X ad revenues ($163 in the last two-week pay period) are what they are because of one good reason:

I don’t post clickbait or outrage material.

If I did, I’d move from 73,000 subscribers to 730,000, and grift my way to a great fortune and a life on autopilot. Did you know that outrage posts, and posts that create enough anger to encourage massive interaction, have about 40% more engagement than informative posts - like a chart containing voter registration data? Here’s an example of typical right-wing engagement farming:

I voted for Trump THREE TIMES and now that he’s abandoned all of his campaign promises and his base, I’m voting Democrat this year to teach him a lesson!

These are the types that generate a million or more impressions; they can be used over and over again until people realize it is a ruse, unfollow, and move on to someone else. The eventual snubbing requires the engagement farmer to adopt new tactics or risk losing eyeballs and clicks. This means the methods of engagement get more and more outrageous and detached from reality, loudly signaling (like MTG) - me, me, me, me, me! Today’s article will tie in to this market, which has seen over $7 million in trade volume as the grift machine fires up:

I have been accused of playing both sides of the right-of-center never-ending food fight. I’ve had friends cancel me for being skeptical of all foreign governments, allies or not, and I’ve had strangers online accuse me of being some sort of Zionist asset (tell that to the people who cancelled me over being skeptical of Israel like I am of all nations, including my own) because I registered my early support for the limited scope of military action against Iran (let it be known, I am fully against an Iraq-style ground occupation and ensuing counterinsurgency). I have been slow to judge dissident voices because I try to find the value they bring to the debate table…

But now things are getting out of control.

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This event, tucked quietly away in a safe red state, evoked a line from Field of Dreams, in that the memories were so thick I had to brush them away from my face. As people filed in, chapters of my past that were preserved in my book, The American War on Election Corruption, came to life. There sat Ole Miss chemistry professor Ryan Fortenberry, who just won a prestigious award given to the top teacher at Ole Miss; he was my high school classmate with a great memory of the kid who never worked hard and didn’t have what it took between the ears to turn into what he was supposed to.

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Then there sat Mrs. Kat, the Ole Miss ROTC administrator and “Rebel Battalion Mom” who kept all of us cadets in line and who personally helped punch through the waiver that granted me access to the commissioning program that allowed me to become “Captain K” in the first place. Nearly half of the 20 attendees were military veterans, including Butch Harris, who honored the memory of my longtime friend, Colonel Lee Jones, who served in Vietnam alongside my father and who was stationed at Fort Buchanan, Puerto Rico, when I was born on the island. Brigadier General (Ret.) Gary Huffman also attended. This brought back a lot of memories from my military career, which I told in what turned out to be a completely unscripted jaunt down memory lane.

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I was in town to begin with because today I’ll be part of a ceremony celebrating the 20 year anniversary of the Ole Miss Rebels SEC Tournament Championship team, which featured several future Major Leaguers and of which I was a member. That was the first major building block of my analytical course of study, a full decade before sabermetrics and rigorous analysis of collegiate baseball became commonplace. As soon as I hit “publish” on this article, I’m going to take Rachel and two of my step-kids down to “The Grove,” where many Ole Miss alums remember darker days for the football program. That hallowed ground is the birthplace of the phrase “we may not win every game, but we’ve never lost a party.” I have my own brick there, which my Dad sponsored as a graduation present in 2008:

When The American War on Election Corruption was published last month, my event in Oxford hadn’t been scheduled. I didn’t realize in going to a forgotten location among the red-and-blue political maps that I would remember so many key components of the story that set my life and its goals in motion.

Dr. Cyree is recently retired as Dean of the Ole Miss Business School, and has been a staunch conservative in a sea of leftist academics for decades. He and Lori have been among the loudest voices for activism and citizen engagement in north Mississippi, and have never shied away from these views despite the great risk to Ken’s career. These are the types of people we must admire when it is so easy to blend in and slink away when the fire gets hottest. One of the most surreal connections to this trip has been the memory that when I look at my diploma, Dr. Cyree’s signature sits right there in the bottom right corner:

It may be 10, 15, or 20 years, or even longer, but eventually, the past rings itself in your ears so loudly you’d have to be numb to the world to ignore the marks it has made on your life. Now on to celebrate with some old friends and remember some amazing times!

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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Tuesday night’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race is about as open and shut of an elections case as you’ll find anywhere. Maria Lazar (the de facto GOP candidate) barely cleared 600,000 votes, the lowest output in nearly a decade for such a race, and Chris Taylor (the de facto Democrat candidate) would have lost to the last Republican who ran just a year ago with her meager vote total that lagged last year’s winner, Susan Crawford, by an America’s Dairyland mile. You can read about my take on that race here:

As you probably know by now, intelligence officers are map junkies. I found one last night that spoke volumes of words about what Republicans simply cannot grasp:

The Republican Party reminds me of a football team that continues to try to run the football up the middle despite being stuffed at the line of scrimmage, or behind it, over and over again. At some point, you have to tip your hat to the defense and recognize that you’ll need to open up the playbook, especially if your defense can’t keep up with your opponent’s. Wisconsin is simply a microcosm of this problem that we see all over the country. There are some states in which the rural, exurban, and suburban (although those are waning) counties consistently overpower the blue bubbles. They come in all shapes and sizes, like these examples:

• Texas

• Florida

• Montana

• Iowa

With the party registration shifts visible to me in some states, and often decades of data at my disposal, it is clear that Republicans can keep executing the same game plan in states like that until further notice. In a football context, that means keep punishing them with the same few plays that are working. Then we have the states in which the blue bubbles are so supremely dominant, and the suburban areas too liberal, that they overwhelm the states I don’t expect modern-day Republicans to be competitive in outside of a few quirks (like Massachusetts’ strange fascination with GOP governors surrounded by an all-Democrat legislatures). Some of these states are:

• Massachusetts

• Connecticut

• Delaware

• Maryland

In football, you punt on 4th-and-18 unless you have no other options at the end of a game. In elections, we punt on pushing finite resources to statewide races in those states (or in unwinnable districts), especially those resources pooled specifically for holding or gaining majorities or winning the Electoral College.

Then you have the 3rd-and-7 or 4th-and-1 states that are do-or-die, go big or go home, that must be won, or potentially could shift into battleground status with the proper strategies (and in many cases, common sense election laws taking root). These are my 11 critical states (sorry, Virginians):

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The low point of that evening’s elections, however, was the landslide defeat of Brad Schimel, the GOP candidate in what was technically a non-partisan race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. He was trounced by faux moderate Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge from uber-liberal Dane County, by a whopping 10.1 percent margin. Incredibly, Schimel exceeded the vote total of Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal judge elected in 2023 by 11.0 percent, by more than 40,000 votes.

Please purchase a copy for yourself, your friends, or your legislator.

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As recently as 2019, Wisconsin Supreme Court races could be won with as few as 600,000 votes. Schimel put up an elite vote total, yet lost in a landslide as his Democrat opponent nearly matched Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total from a presidential election.

This is, of course, because Democrats have mastered mail-in ballot collection. They knew Schimel would come in with a practically unbeatable haul of votes and secure the seat for the Republicans, along with the majority on the court. With weeks to collect absentee ballots, the result was not only what the Democrats needed (a narrow Crawford win), but an utter landslide when that shouldn’t have been possible - like scoring 23 runs in baseball when your opponent scores 21.

Now fast forward to last night. The Republican Party had all the enthusiasm of a wet fart. Receipt below:

Yep, 600,000 votes for the Republican (technically non-partisan, but you know what I mean) candidate. That means she trailed Brad Schimel, who lost his race by 10 points last year, by over 460,000 votes. The Democrat candidate, Chris Taylor, would have lost to Schimel by over 8 points with her paltry 905,155 total, which is nearly 400,000 below Susan Crawford’s winning total in last year’s race.

Now, here is what you need to understand about this outcome:

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