That ridiculous number (83%) for Democrats is built on two things:

• Polling (generic ballots as high as D+11)

• Precedent (the president’s party loses seats in 20 of 23 midterm elections since 1934, with an average loss of 27 seats)

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What gamblers aren’t factoring in is the drastic impact of new maps all across the U.S., which has now turned to favor Republicans. I laid down baseline predictions for 390 seats earlier this week, and found that the baseline for this House election starts at 203 Republican to 187 Democrat:

What this means is that just 10.3% (45) of House seats will decide the majority, and that neither party has a high ceiling nor a low floor. Democrats need to win 31 of those 45 seats (68.9%) to win the slimmest majority possible (218 to 217). The predictions get much harder after the “safe” round, and I’ve separated what remains into two categories:

• Leaners

• Decisive

The leaners are those seats in which I have a higher degree of confidence of who the winner will be. In the last presidential cycle, I put the following electoral votes into the leaner category because I knew they weren’t “safe” states, but also didn’t think they were anyone’s for the taking barring scandal, unforeseen development, a wave election, or just a massive upset:

• Maine Statewide (2 electoral votes, Harris)

• Minnesota (10 electoral votes, Harris)

• Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (1 electoral vote, Harris)

• New Mexico (5 electoral votes, Harris)

• North Carolina (16 electoral votes, Trump)

• Virginia (13 electoral votes, Harris)

I got them all right, and that created the second base camp of 235 to 222 Trump, which gave way to victory scenarios. Trump nailed the first and straightest path, the Core 235 + Georgia (16) + Pennsylvania (19) for an even 270 on Election Night, closing the books on Harris’s miserable campaign and paving the way for the online right to bitch 24/7 for the next four years (currently ongoing).

Examining Leaners

I’d be stunned if I missed more than a handful of the “safe” seats, but with 390 opportunities to miss one, I suppose an upset is always possible. Still, the seats are cut in such a manner to preclude upsets by design. I’d call Eli Crane in AZ-2 (R) my iffiest “safe” Republican seat, but the Democrats have a very static electorate there and their own internal comms don’t seem very bullish on it. Leaners have an obvious favorite, often aided by incumbency, midterm year dynamics (blowback against president’s party), and other factors. Here are my 22 leaners, followed by how I think they will break:

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When I finally looked around at the results of what I had anticipated would be a bland evening, I noticed the damage. Two Mamdani-endorsed candidates in New York City had pulled the AOC stunt and ousted sitting Congressmen:

NY-10: Brad Lander, formerly an elected NYC official, knocked off incumbent Congressman Dan Goldman by an astounding 31.8%.

NY-13: Radical socialist community organizer (where have we heard that title before?) Darializa Avila Chevalier, in a real stunner, beat Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, by 3.5%.

In an open race to nominate a Democrat in NY-7, Mamdani-backed Claire Valdez cruised to victory over her more ideologically balanced opponent, Antonio Reynoso by more than 20 points. All three of these seats are “safe” holds for Democrats, as described in my New York U.S. House overview last month:

Alright…so the results are that they are, and it’s time to go to bed, right?

Not so fast. As I scrolled, my feed was filled with sheer panic from talking heads, influencers, strategists, consultants, and just your average Joes who follow politics as a hobby.

It’s terrifying what they are becoming!

I can’t believe this has come to America!

Excuse me, but have we already forgotten what the “moderate” Democrats did to us? Do you remember when the Obama administration used the Internal Revenue Service to persecute conservative organizations, or when it was coordinating with cartels causing unrestrained chaos along our southern border (thanks, President Trump, for fixing the border all the whiners forget about). Yet here we are, acting like the Democrats are a necessary force for good now being pulled into extremism.

Let me tell you a story from the pages of history. Do you recognize this region?

Of course you do. That’s New England, where Susan Collins is the only Republican member of Congress out of 33 possible members (21 House members and 12 Senators). You may not recognize the dominant color (red) because it’s been a long time, but New England used to be overwhelmingly Republican. Massachusetts was always a bit of a struggle (the only state to back McGovern in 1972’s national landslide), but Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine were torch red for over a century.

The map above is George H.W. Bush’s 1988 performance, winning the electoral votes of New England 19 to 17. I picked 1988 to be free of the 1984 landslide dynamics; his margins were reduced everywhere, and Rhode Island and Massachusetts flipped from Reagan to Dukakis. Yet still, there he was in the third consecutive Republican presidential win still winning in New England. The only statewide presidential win of a New England state since then was Dubya’s narrow win of New Hampshire in 2000, which he promptly gave back four years later thanks to the opposition to the Iraq War in a very libertarian-minded state.

Now, New England is bluer than a Smurf’s ass. Why is that? It’s because the Republican Party is considered out of touch with modern day New England. It, despite its origins deeply rooted in religious freedom, is highly secular and more like Canada than it is Texas. Starting in the 1980s, the Republican brand came to be more associated with the Bible Belt and religious evangelical conservatism than it had been in the years in which it was dominant in the region. Densely congested cities and urban areas no longer viewed it, with its focus largely perceived to be on social issues and not on infrastructure, education, and socially liberal causes, as a political fit. It changed overnight with the formation of the modern “blue wall.”

Imagine this in reverse in light of last night’s New York primary results and you’ll feel better.

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The Republicans are likely to lose the House majority, and certainly would if the election were held today.

This was written to emphasize the narrow pathway to victory available to Republicans in the U.S. House, with “victory” meaning holding the narrowest (218-217) majority there is. I proceeded to explain that two things must happen for the pessimistic forecast to shift in the GOP’s favor:

The best possible path for a GOP House majority hinges on two courses of action:

• Virginia redistricting referendum failing (looking good for a “No” victory based on early voting counts, but polls are mixed)

• Florida redistricting effort at end of month picking up as many as five GOP seats

Not to be a killjoy, but if Virginia gets away with carving up a 10-1 Democrat map, the math becomes pretty much impossible. You can thank the Indiana Senate, the Nebraska legislature, illegal maneuvering by the California legislature and executive, and bad court decisions for this.

God has heard our prayers, and both of those miracles came to pass (with Virginia’s coming to pass with the intervention of the state’s Supreme Court). Governor DeSantis immediately capitalized on the window of opportunity and signed a new map into effect that gives the GOP a shot at four more seats in Florida, and in a real miracle I hadn’t even accounted for, the Callais decision was handed down from the U.S. Supreme Court. Immediately upon receiving that news, Louisiana, Alabama, and Tennessee cut one Democrat seat each.

Up until those three things all happened in rapid succession, the redistricting war had shifted in favor of Democrats:

That’s why my father always told me, “The game is never over until the last man is out.”

The entire thing reminds me of the last weekend of college football games, where your team can advance to the conference championship if this team loses to that team, these two teams finish in a tie, and the conference secretary calls in sick on a Thursday for the first time in 38 years. The GOP is supposed to get smoked in 2026, at least in the House. It’s been that way since 1934, with the President’s party losing seats in 20 of 23 midterms (and 27 on average). The simple reality of this year’s midterms (and those to come) is that there aren’t 27 seats to lose.

In fact, redistricting has had such an impact that I see only 45 of 435 seats potentially in play, neither party with a high ceiling nor a low floor, and difficulty in favoring the Democrats at all. If they are to be favored, it is merely an edge afforded via historical stats and trends - their maps are awful and are going to get worse.

The starting point for this year’s House race, per the Keshel Model, is:

Republican 203

Democrat 187

Leaner 22

Decisive 23

To help you understand the map above: you are looking at seats my model considers SAFE (390 of 435) - breaking down to 203 Republican, 187 Democrat.

What makes a “safe” seat? In most cases, we are talking about a seat won by at least 10 points in the 2024 midterms by either side. In a few cases, there are seats won by Democrats by single digits (like Democrat Andrea Salinas +6.8% in OR-6 in 2024) that should blow left based upon the winds of history and my own understanding of how states with bad election laws run “elections.” On the Republican side, Eli Crane’s AZ-2 is the closest Republican seat considered “safe” - with a margin of +9.0% in 2024.

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, my models (which nailed 2024 down to the last electoral vote) account for what types of election laws are in each state:

A “leaner” seat, according to my model, is one typically with a margin inside 10 points (sometimes 5) that is easier to predict than those considered “decisive.” I consider MT-1 a Republican “leaner,” and one likely to be held by the GOP based on a variety of factors (but not by a big margin). Democrats have the edge in 16 of 22 leaners, bringing us to a 209 Republican, 203 Democrat setup for the 23 decisive seats to finish off.

The “decisive” slate consists of those seats that will provide the decision for who controls the House. When it comes time to analyze them in detail, they’ll be presented in bullish/neutral/bearish format, based on GOP-oriented prospects. Now, for a full walk down the national setup, arranged alphabetically by House region. Click the region name for a detailed overview:

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Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

California

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)

Pennsylvania

Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)

Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, UT)

Texas

Upper Midwest (MN, WI)

Virginia

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INTRODUCTION

It is hard to follow an act as bad as California’s, but these four states may as well be dubbed “where close election victories go to die.” Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington are three of eight states nationally that use Universal Mail-In Voting, fueled by Automatic Voter Registration and fully legalized ballot harvesting.

Alaska doesn’t have it quite as bad, but the Last Frontier is one of just two states running Ranked Choice Voting in federal elections. That has allowed Lisa Murkowski to survive well beyond her political expiration date as a poorly-suited United States Senator, and what vaulted Mary Peltola (Democrat) into the U.S. House over the legendary Sarah Palin and the current U.S. Representative, Nick Begich, in 2022, despite these first choice round results:

Surprisingly, Oregon has three tightly-decided Democrat seats according to 2024 margins. If this were a Republican-favorable year, I’d say the Republican Party should be aggressive and deploy all the ballot harvesters/chasers they can pay. This year, I don’t think the drift is in the GOP’s favor. This is about holding onto the three easy seats and going after three remaining seats in some of the toughest, most excruciating electoral environments you can find anywhere in the country.

Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

HAWAII

HI-1: Ed Case (D), running for 5th term, +43.6% margin in 2024 in Honolulu seat - SAFE

HI-2: Jill Tokuda (D), running for 3rd term, +36.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OREGON

OR-1: Suzanne Bonamici (D), running for 9th term, +40.7% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OR-2: Cliff Bentz (R), running for 4th term, +31.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OR-3: Maxine Dexter (D), running for 2nd term, +42.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OR-4: Val Hoyle (D), running for 3rd term, +7.8% margin in 2024 - a leaner in a Republican-favorable year but not 2026 - SAFE

OR-6: Andrea Salinas (D), running for 3rd term, +6.8% margin in 2024 - a leaner in a Republican-favorable year but not 2026 - SAFE

WASHINGTON

WA-1: Suzan DelBene (D), running for 9th term, +26.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-2: Rick Larsen (D), running for 14th term, +27.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-4: Open seat with Captain K-endorsed Jerrod Sessler running, Dan Newhouse (R) retiring, Republican vs. Republican in 2024 - SAFE REP

WA-5: Michael Baumgartner (R), running for 2nd term, +20.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-6: Emily Randall (D), running for 2nd term, +13.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-7: Pramila Jayapal (D), running for 6th term, +68.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-8: Kim Schrier (D), running for 5th term, +8.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-9: Adam Smith (D), running for 16th term, +33.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WA-10: Marilyn Strickland (D), running for 4th term, +17.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NORTHWEST + FAR WEST SUMMARY

Democrat 13

Republican 3

Leaner 1 (OR-5)

Decisive 2 (AK-AL, WA-3)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on OR-5 (Democrat leaner) and AK-AL and WA-3 (decisive seats). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)

Pennsylvania

Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)

Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, UT)

Texas

Upper Midwest (MN, WI)

Virginia

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INTRODUCTION

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably recognize California as America’s mother ship of electile dysfunction and know that Governor Gavin Newsom successfully spearheaded a legislative takeover of the “independent commission” that had drawn up an already unbalanced 43-9 U.S. House map favoring Democrats.

The special election that green-lighted the new maps was intended to give Democrats an edge that is perhaps as high as 48-4. Should they fall at all short of the 48-4 goal they’ve set with their new gerrymander, they are gravely at risk of failing to obtain the bare minimum majority of 218 seats. California has been so blue for so long that I can’t help but think it may have reached its apogee and, despite a 2026 midterm environment likely to favor Democrats more than usual, could produce a fluke upset or two. I have two friends who will be GOP nominees within these newly gerrymandered districts, and both know exactly what they’re up against in what amounts to a prolonged game of ballot collection.

For now, most of the pundits see two seats in play (CA-22 and CA-48); however, every single district is redrawn and in many cases, candidates have jumped races. Analysis within this article for California breaks from the usual text-based breakdown in favor of a chart showing the seat, the disposition (in some cases, with one party locked out), and the rating for the race.

Note: In CA-6, Kevin Kiley is technically running as an Independent. He is a de facto Republican candidate who is currently a sitting member of Congress, forced to jump races when lines were redrawn.

Here are my evaluations of the state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIA SUMMARY

Democrat 44

Republican 4

Leaner 2 (CA-13, CA-45)

Decisive 2 (CA-22, CA-48)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on CA-13 and CA-45 (leaners) and the decisive seats of CA-22 and CA-48. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Oh wow, we’re gonna wind up with two Republican candidates for governor this year because there are too many Dems running!

Remember how I felt about that?

Eric Swalwell was clearly pushed out of the race from the Democrat side (by his own people) to prevent the dual-GOP scenario from happening. And then, even if all other machinations failed, the ballot counting machine would have taken as long as possible to ensure the party didn’t get locked out of running its own state. In the end, Steve Hilton made it to the General Election, and by less than 2 points over third-place candidate Tom Steyer - with roughly 83,000 ballots left to count nearly three weeks since Election Day.

Recently, in my ongoing assessment of the 2026 midterm environment, I pointed out the critical need to resolve the Iranian conflict in light of its impact on GOP midterm hopes. No resolution, likely no pathway to have the upper hand in the decisive races for majorities. Resolution, and the pathways become viable. You can read that opinion here:

An excerpt:

My admonition to all is to tune out the negative voices and the whiners who are trying to stop President Trump from advancing toward a deal. I had hopes the Iranian regime would be rooted out, but once again, it’s not America’s job to do the dying necessary, and without willing partners ready to put boots on ground while we remain at sea and in the air, it’s a non-starter. The best outcome, then, from this point forward looks like the rumored framework of the deal:

• Strait of Hormuz immediately reopened with de-mining underway

• Iran gives up uranium enrichment, hands over any stockpiles, and provides access to outside inspectors to ensure their end of the agreement is held up

• Iran, pending satisfactory fulfillment of above points, gets a break on sanctions and an opportunity for the new chain of command to advance the nation’s standing in the world

Earlier this week, President Trump inked an agreement to bring about the cessation of hostilities and establish the framework for regional stability. Yet many of the voices who encouraged the early kinetic actions against Iran are now screeching because the bombs are on hold (for now), and on the flip side of the coin, the loudest voices for non-interventionism are repeating online vomit and half-truths to mock Trump for supposedly waving a white flag.

The goalposts for what defines success are constantly being moved.

Now it is time for a reality check on the way the world is, and why the deal is what it is:

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That 312 to 226 prediction above in favor of Donald Trump, posted the morning of November 5, 2024 (Election Day), turned out 100% accurate. But I was hedging in my title on a repeat of the 2020 election, which turned out to not be fully replicable thanks to the lack of the COVID-19 workarounds and diminished harvesting capacity. Therefore, when I say a state is possibly doomed, my title needs to come with the caveats that I don’t find surrender to be a viable strategy, nor do I believe there is nothing worth fighting for, for those living in the state in question.

There are, however, some states that are completely out of the control of the freedom-loving citizens that live in them. They are out-voted, and in many cases out-balloted, no matter which way we slice it. Virginia comes to mind when I think of states like this, and I know many patriots from there who are deeply engaged; yet they understand that as things are today, they’re electorally doomed - resigned to living in a state that embraces big city politics and rejects an America First worldview, or perhaps any Republican worldview at all given enough time.

Last night, Georgia showed once again why it may be on course to become the next Virginia:

I’ve heard pushback on this concept over and over again online, like “It’s not the next Virginia because the nation’s capital isn’t in it!” Well, that’s great, but it’s an overwhelmingly red state by land mass and population spread, with a deeply blue population center (NoVA) occupying a small land mass that determines the entire statewide vote. It is accented by Richmond and a few smatterings, like those along the coast. They have NoVA accented by Richmond; Georgia has Atlanta accented by Savannah, Columbus, and Macon.

Arizona was equally impacted by the 2020 election, yet has emerged in the years since on a path to red state of the future (although not fully out of the woods). The same can be said of Nevada, and even long-term prospects in the Midwest, but not of Georgia - which appears to be the next major Democrat state barring an intervention and change of course. In full disclosure, many prominent Republicans are behind Rick Jackson, now the Georgia GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, but his victory isn’t why I’m writing. It’s more about who lost.

Primary Points of Concern About Fading Red Georgia

I. Jackson over Jones, Kemp over Perdue

Rule for forecasting GOP primaries: when in doubt, predict victory for the person Trump endorsed. Trump missed on Sid Miller for Texas Agriculture Commissioner in this year’s primaries, then went on an unbeaten streak that lasted until June’s Iowa primary when Randy Feenstra lost his gubernatorial bid by 1,625 votes spread over 1,658 precincts (less than one vote per precinct!). Trump had been behind Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones practically since he announced his run, but the billionaire Jackson (whom two of Trump’s sons publicly support) used his fortune to position himself as the “conservative warrior” of an increasingly non-conservative state.

Georgia not only rejected Trump’s pick to fend off against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, but rebuffed the president in 2022 when he was seeking to oust Governor Brian Kemp as the incumbent governor after his “look the other way” approach to the 2020 election in the Peach State. Here is how David Perdue, a former U.S. Senator and Trump’s endorsed pick, fared:

Not just a loss, but a loss of 51.9%. Ouch.

Georgia, although it sided with Trump on Mike Collins for U.S. Senate last night, has a developing habit of poking its thumb in Trump’s eye, reflecting an anti-America First voter base that will ride the wave of corrupt elections driven by Automatic Voter Registration to help vault Georgia into blue statehood.

Trump election endorsements are as close to gold as can be found, except for in Georgia. If the face of the America First movement can’t move the needle there, what does it say for that movement’s long-term prospects?

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)

Pennsylvania

Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)

Texas

Upper Midwest (MN, WI)

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

As we barrel toward the Pacific Ocean, one last overland stopping point remains - the Southwest. While we may disagree on which states should be in this region, my set includes Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. All four states run terrible, mail-in heavy elections, making tossup races that much more difficult to secure for Republican candidates as vote counts stretch on until the job is done.

Arizona has two vital seats that will likely be among the tipping point states for the overall majority, and it’s Republicans on defense in both. Nevada continues to show promise as a future GOP outpost, but the Democrats have gerrymandered Las Vegas into three separate districts. New Mexico’s Democrats masterfully cut out the oil country in the state’s southeast to blend with urban areas near Albuquerque, and in a real twist of fate, Utah lost one of its guaranteed GOP seats when a state Supreme Court judge sided with the lawyer presenting the Democrat side of the case who she just happened to be, well, uh… Let’s move on.

Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

ARIZONA

AZ-2: Eli Crane (R), running for 3rd term, +9.0% margin in 2024 to keep an eye on - SAFE

AZ-3: Yassamin Ansari (D), running for 2nd term, +44.3% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AZ-4: Greg Stanton (D), running for 5th term, +7.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AZ-5: Open seat, Andy Biggs (R) retiring to run for Governor, +20.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

AZ-7: Adelita Grijalva (D), running for 1st full term, +26.8% margin in 2024 for Raul Grijalva - SAFE

AZ-8: Abraham Hamadeh (R), running for 2nd term, +13.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AZ-9: Paul Gosar (R), running for 9th term, +30.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NEVADA

NV-1: Dina Titus (D), running for 8th term, +7.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NV-2: Open seat with David Flippo nominated, Mark Amodei (R) retiring, +18.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

NV-4: Steven Horsford (D), running for 5th term, +8.1% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NEW MEXICO

NM-1: Melanie Stansbury (D), running for 4th term, +12.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NM-3: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

UTAH

UT-1: Blake Moore (R) redistricted out, Democrat nomination open - DEM FLIP

UT-2: Celeste Maloy (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

UT-3: Mike Kennedy (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE

UT-4: Open seat, Burgess Owens (R) retiring - SAFE REP

SOUTHWEST SUMMARY

Democrat 8

Republican 8

Leaner 2 (NV-3, NM-2)

Decisive 2 (AZ-1, AZ-6)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NV-3 and NM-2 (leaners) and the decisive seats of AZ-1 and AZ-6. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

We just got the elections bill through and it will be on the ballot!

She was referring to House Concurrent Resolution 2001, also known as the Arizona Secure Elections Act, sponsored by Rep. Alex Kolodin (the best choice for GOP Secretary of State nominee) and co-sponsored by several other Republicans, including Rachel.

This is a big deal.

Republicans have been trying to get election reforms through with their relatively (compared to years past) small majorities in the House and Senate, and run up against that narrow margin for error from time to time; however, the most obstructive force is the dubiously elected Katie Hobbs, whom I describe in unique terms in my book, The American War on Election Corruption:

Ironically, Hobbs’s 2018 opponent, Republican Steve Gaynor, had been called the winner on Election Night, only to have that lead suspiciously slip away, vaulting Hobbs to the second-highest office in the state and her moment in the sun to rip off not only Arizona’s electoral votes in 2020, but its top office in the very next cycle. Even after a makeover, she was and is an uninspiring, uncharismatic, former state legislator who speaks to people of a conservative state as if they were residents of San Francisco, and despite propagandized polling, few expected her to stand a chance against Lake, who had a solid lead in the final average of polls, including one outlier from Fox 10 Phoenix/Insider Advantage with Lake up by 11, just a few points shy of Ducey’s blowout reelection margin from 2018. So uninspiring is Hobbs that most Arizonans couldn’t pick her out of a lineup three years after she hid from Kari Lake at every opportunity and was installed by a corrupt coalition of subversives to govern Arizona.

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In the long run, Arizona gives me Florida vibes, to a lesser extent. The state sits well to the right of its 2020, 2022, and 2024 voter registration index, and on paper, I’ve had a difficult time seeing how Andy Biggs doesn’t beat Katie Hobbs in November. Eagle eye and lifetime Captain K’s Corner subscriber Michael McDonald has heard my Biggs math many times:

I like Biggs for several reasons:

• Hobbs’s low approval and performance

• Arizona’s pro-Republican voter registration shifts in all 15 counties since the 2020 election

• Roots in both major urban areas, Congressional experience, and non-threatening image combined with Trumpy ideology and voting record

• Mormon - in a state where they do well with the Mormon vote, which is the softest Republican vote in the state and the one responsible for the state getting close enough to steal

I’m not sure if I could use Artificial Intelligence to create a better candidate on paper. Yet here we are, less than five months until Election Day, and this is the quietest major gubernatorial race in the country. Barely a peep, and the fake polling showing Hobbs up by as many as 10 points influences those who are making forecasts. You’ll find practically no one who thinks Biggs will win online outside of Arizona, and to make matters worse, David Schweikert won’t drop his vanity campaign in order for Biggs to get in General Election mode. Maybe they’re waiting to turn up the heat, but I’m sensing a decency campaign afraid to offend people while campaigning against a feminist governor who rigged her own election to the state’s highest office.

All that hope the Arizona legislature had in ramming through every election bill under the sun depended on getting Biggs in office, which is looking like anything but a certainty. Until…

The actions of June 13, 2026. Let me explain why this bill is a huge deal.

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, SK, OK)

Pennsylvania

Texas

Upper Midwest (MN, WI)

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

For this year’s analysis, I am sending Utah to the Southwest region, which will be previewed on Tuesday. The Rockies groups Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming into a minor region featuring just 13 seats (only 3% of the U.S. House), with over 60% of those featured in Colorado. Montana received a second congressional district at the start of this decade thanks to its rapid population growth, leaving Wyoming as the only state in the region with a single at-large Congressman.

Colorado, despite its horrific Universal Mail-In Voting system and lopsided urban population in the Denver area, has one of the fairest House maps around, currently featuring a 4-4 split between the parties the Democrats are seeking to undo Virginia-style for 2028. That 4-4 split is subject to change this year with the GOP defending a leaner (CO-3) and one of the truest tossups in the 2026 race, CO-8. While MT-1 is unlikely to flip to Democrats, it stands are the first seat out of the “Safe GOP” listing - a move I made just this week.

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Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

COLORADO

CO-1: Diana DeGette (D), running for 16th term, +53.9% margin in 2024 in Denver seat - SAFE

CO-2: Joe Neguse (D), running for 5th term, +39.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CO-4: Lauren Boebert (R), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CO-5: Jeff Crank (R), running for 2nd term, +13.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CO-6: Jason Crow (D), running for 5th term, +20.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE

CO-7: Brittany Pettersen (D), running for 3rd term, +14.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IDAHO

ID-1: Ross Fulcher (R), running for 5th term, +45.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

ID-2: Michael Simpson (R), running for 15th term, +30.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MONTANA

MT-2: Troy Downing (R), running for 2nd term, +32.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WYOMING

WY-AL: Open seat, Harriet Hageman (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +47.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

ROCKIES SUMMARY

Democrat 4

Republican 6

Leaner 2 (CO-3, MT-1)

Decisive 1 (CO-8)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on CO-3 and MT-1 (leaners) and the decisive seat of CO-8. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

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Biden’s margin was the largest for any Democrat presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964’s national landslide and came despite Trump posting the highest statewide net vote gain for a Republican since 2004. Trump had only lost Colorado by 4.9% in 2016, despite adding barely any votes over Mitt Romney’s 2012 total. When revised to account for voter registration by party, historic benchmarks, and county-by-county trend (64 counties), I found that Biden would have likely won Colorado by just 5.9% in an election held under pre-2020 standards - slightly to the left of 2016 and in keeping with the voter registration indicator moving left from four years earlier :

That’s a difference of 7.6% at the top of the ticket between the certified margin and a more realistic margin not marred by mail-in ballot fortification made widespread by the 2020 election environment and largely retained by blue states in the years following. The massive blowout margin in favor of Biden had collateral damage on other ballot items, particularly Proposition 114, “Reintroduction and Management of Gray Wolves.” The vast majority of Colorado’s area is made up of countryside and wilderness, yet the whims of urban Denver insisted on pushing a proposition to reintroduce gray wolves, and the accompanying threats to the ranching and rural communities. It passed by a margin of just 1.8%, or 56,986 ballots, underneath Biden’s bloated landslide win.

Deconstructing Biden’s 13.5% win thereby shifts the race in Proposition 114 (seen above) to a 5.7% victory for No. Colorado Conservation Alliance Chairman Michael Clark introduces my study to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the letter shown below:

Paid subscribers to this newsletter can access the attached PDF file encompassing my full findings for Colorado’s 2020 election, both at the statewide level and in-depth into seven counties. It is my hope that this study opens eyes where needed and brings greater clarity to the numerous issues associated with reckless election administration.

File attached below:

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Upper Midwest (MN, WI)

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

I am grouping the Ozarks and Great Plains into a single region in order to consolidate these ratings more effectively. As far as uniform party support goes, it serves as a smaller version of the South for Republicans, with very little opportunity to do anything other than cash in. Thanks to the retirement of Don Bacon, NE-2 looms as the most critical seat in this region. President Trump won it in 2016, but has not carried that lone electoral vote in his last two races. Two states, North Dakota and South Dakota, have just a single at-large representative each.

It is worth noting that Kansas and Nebraska both have sufficient red space to ensure Democrats have no winnable seats to compete for, yet have chosen to “kinder and gentler” approach to dealing with leftists.

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Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

ARKANSAS

AR-1: Rick Crawford (R), running for 9th term, +48.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AR-2: French Hill (R), running for 7th term, +17.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AR-3: Steve Womack (R), running for 9th term, +32.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

AR-4: Bruce Westerman (R), running for 7th term, +45.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

KANSAS

KS-1: Tracey Mann (R), running for 4th term, +38.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

KS-2: Derek Schmidt (R), running for 2nd term, +18.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE

KS-3: Sharice Davids (D), running for 5th term, +10.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

KS-4: Ron Estes (R), running for 6th term, +30.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MISSOURI

MO-1: Wesley Bell (D), running for 2nd term in St. Louis seat - SAFE

MO-2: Ann Wagner (R), running for 8th term - SAFE

MO-3: Bob Onder (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE

MO-4: Mark Alford (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

MO-5: GOP nominee pending August primary, Emanuel Cleaver (D) being drawn out by redistricting - REP FLIP

MO-6: Open seat, Sam Graves (R) retiring - SAFE REP

MO-7: Eric Burlison (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

MO-8: Jason Smith (R), running for 8th term - SAFE

NEBRASKA

NE-1: Mike Flood (R), running for 4th term, +20.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NE-3: Adrian Smith (R), running for 11th term, +60.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

NORTH DAKOTA

ND-AL: Julie Fedorchak (R), running for 2nd term, +39.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OKLAHOMA

OK-1: Open seat, Kevin Hern (R) retiring, +25.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

OK-2: Josh Brecheen (R), running for 3rd term, +52.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OK-3: Frank Lucas (R), running for 18th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

OK-4: Tom Cole (R), running for 13th term, +36.9% margin in 2024 - SAFE

OK-5: Stephanie Bice (R), running for 4th term, +21.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

SOUTH DAKOTA

SD-AL: Marty Jackley nominated, Dusty Johnson (R) retiring, +44.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

OZARKS + PLAINS SUMMARY

Democrat 2

Republican 23

Decisive 1 (NE-2)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on NE-2 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Just when you want to shake off the 2020 quasi election as a bad dream made complicated by COVID-19 malfeasance and the advent of mass mail-in balloting, something like the 2026 California jungle primaries pops up and renews all doubts. Still, the elections there (and elsewhere) aren’t stolen, but rather they are rigged. All of my research into the most impacted states suggests that the corruption is primarily rooted in what laws are on the books:

One of the most important speakers at the summit that day was Dr. John Lott. Dr. Lott is the founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center, and he published a gold mine of information related to global views on mail-in voting within months of the 2020 election. You can read the primary research paper here. When people say no one runs elections like California does, they are on the money. Outside of a few states like Washington and Oregon, no foreign nation comes close to defrauding their citizenry like California does. Below is a must read post from Jennifer Callahan on X:

Signatures only need to be 40% accurate (!) this is the setting the machines are set at for LA County (called the ASV)

Forty percent accurate? Has anyone under the age of 75 reading this article taken a look at modern day signatures?

Dr. Lott opened my eyes to the futility of postal voting in the eyes of the rest of the world. Now, before I proceed further, let me clarify - I understand that until changes can be made that we have little recourse other than to try to win under the existing system, and that includes getting mail-in ballots sent in if that’s all we have for registering someone’s voice. I am railing on uncontrolled mail-in voting, opposite of what Floridians now have thanks to the 2022 passage of Senate Bill 524. Lott’s research shows that 34 of 47 European nations ban postal voting; most of the remaining nations only permit it narrowly, like for overseas citizens in very low numbers.

Europe isn’t our area of operations, but it is in fact in the area of influence when it comes to the process of voting. This is like how, in Afghanistan, I had my area of operations in which I considered all things impacting our operations directly, but still cared about the area of influence a few provinces over that may teach me a thing or two about enemy tactics, weaponry, or networks. It’s not even just Europe that takes great care to make its citizens believe in the electoral process - Mexico, Japan, Russia, and Israel, among many nations, are in the same boat. Hell, in sub-Saharan Africa, many nations see elections run in the town squares with locals counting painted rocks together - all so people will accept results, move on, and have a baseline belief in the legitimacy of the government under which they live.

One of the most fascinating concepts for examining the political world surfaced in late 2016, just before the watershed Trump v. Clinton election “America’s ex-wife” was all so certain to win. I documented it on page 60 of my book, The American War on Election Corruption.

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Pennsylvania

Texas

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

Minnesota, despite having widely documented financial fraud and election laws that allow for popular vote rigging, has one of the fairest U.S. House maps in the country that perfectly captures the urban-rural divide in the state. Wisconsin, thanks to its normally Republican lean in the legislature and the concentration of leftists in two urban areas, strongly favors the GOP, although many are concerned the Democrats’ penchant for winning state Supreme Court races will eventually result in newly drawn maps that will chip into that power.

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Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

MINNESOTA

MN-1: Brad Finstad (R), running for 4th term, +17.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-2: Open seat, Angie Craig (D) retiring, +13.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

MN-3: Kelly Morrison (D), running for 2nd term, +17.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-4: Betty McCollum (D), running for 14th term, +34.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-5: Ilhan Omar (D), running for 5th term, +50.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-6: Tom Emmer (R), running for 7th term, +25.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-7: Michelle Fischbach (R), running for 4th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MN-8: Pete Stauber (R), running for 5th term, +16.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WISCONSIN

WI-1: Bryan Steil (R), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WI-2: Mark Pocan (D), running for 8th term, +40.2% margin in 2024 in Madison seat - SAFE

WI-4: Gwen Moore (D), running for 12th term, +52.4% margin in 2024 in Milwaukee seat - SAFE

WI-5: Scott Fitzgerald (R), running for 4th term, +29.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WI-6: Glenn Grothman (R), running for 7th term, +22.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

WI-7: Open seat, Tom Tiffany (R) retiring to run for Governor, +27.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

WI-8: Tony Wied (R), running for 3rd term, +14.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

UPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY

Democrat 6

Republican 9

Decisive 1 (WI-3)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on WI-3 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won rather than those not considered competitive, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

I read the ballot drops for Nithya Raman, the no-name progressive candidate no one had ever heard of until last week, starting Thursday and realized what the game was even when markets still had reality star Spencer Pratt likely to advance from the jungle primarily to the November two-person election against incumbent mayor Karen Bass. I received the standard assorted comments of “you have no proof” and “you’re destroying the fabric of our elections” as I torched California’s corrupt elections all week on social media before my dour prediction came true:

Raman, associated with the Democratic Socialists of America and born in India, will face Bass instead of the guy who ran a platform based on the shocking, white supremacy-linked policy positions of:

• Rehabilitating the homeless population

• Clamping down on crime

• Cleaning the streets

• Ending government grift and corruption

You wouldn’t exactly mistake Pratt for the latest generic Republican presidential contender showing up in Iowa in his plaid shirt and blue jeans and appealing to the heartland on the strength of his conservation efforts to conserve conservatism and “stand for our principles.” The guy is a pragmatist tapping into the vein of support for outsiders who want to fix real, tangible problems. The purpose of today’s article isn’t to break down the math and mechanics of why this election is a fraud; it is to show why it had to be this way, and why this overreach will most likely be the watershed moment we’ve been looking for as the Supreme Court prepares to release its opinion on Watson v. Republican National Committee:

Poke around on X, and you’ll see plenty of proof about why the mail-in drops make no sense. Somehow Raman is now outperforming not only Pratt, but Bass herself, even though she all but conceded the race in socialist tears Tuesday night when Pratt was roughly ten points ahead of her and only about four behind Bass. Sometime in the immediate aftermath of that conference, the criminals in charge of California and its largest county decided Pratt couldn’t be permitted to take second place. You see, Pratt wouldn’t have won the General Election in November. Remember, California runs the unholy trifecta of Automatic Voter Registration, Universal Mail-In Voting, and legalized ballot harvesting. Then you have to deal with the party registration in Los Angeles County, which is even more favorable than the figures Pratt would have to deal with running for the top position in the city:

Los Angeles County

Democrat 3,008,653

Republican 1,100,408

Advantage D+1,908,245 (D+32.4%)

I would imagine the Democrat advantage must be D+40% or greater within the confines of the City of Los Angeles itself. Yes, there are millions of zombies in the Golden State that are unwilling to associate its tremendous decline with Democrat “leadership” or change their voting patterns to replicate those found in successful large states, such as Texas or Florida; and then there is the massive cheating, which keeps California blue against insurgents or in red wave years.

All of those things made it unlikely Pratt could prevail against Bass in November; however, the risk was too great and stood to disrupt the future California’s elite planners have envisioned. He had to go down now:

Reasons Why Pratt Couldn’t Be Allowed in the General Election

I. The New Wave of Marketing

Pratt has garnered a lot of attention in recent weeks with masterfully produced, Artificial Intelligence-driven advertisements showing him mocking the elites, solving problems, and enjoying a healthy Los Angeles with a diverse coalition of voters. When you think about it, it’s a brilliant idea. Even the most skilled professionals and busy people in the world readily admit screen addiction is a problem as they are unable to estimate how often they unlock their phones to take a peek at the latest notifications, updates, and news stories. I’ve tried to convince Rachel that putting signs out at every intersection is a colossal waste of time that moves precisely zero votes, and a large reason I believe that is because people are now addicted to devices and more likely to click a viral advertisement than they are to scan the signs at the intersection or dig through the pile of mail on the countertop to review candidate policy positions.

Pratt knows the statistics are against him, but they were against Arnold Schwarzenegger too, and 17 years before California truly figured out how to rig elections. Arnold won L.A. County and didn’t win it with any sort of GOP registration advantage or party infrastructure. In fact, today’s LAGOP is still run by people who are too afraid to offend their captors by calling the uncontrolled mail-in voting system the fraudulent system that it is. In order to capture the attention of hundreds of thousands of non-Republicans he needs to win, something different has to occur.

Pratt’s marketing campaign must be replicated by urban Republicans who are crashing against the rocks trying to focus on social issues and boardroom conservatism when they could attract voters in great numbers by solving issues of crime, homelessness, and urban malaise. Those ideas are brought to life in the minds of younger voters by using technology to our advantage rather than doing things “the way we’ve always done it.” The California Democrat machine knew it couldn’t deal with another five months of relentless mockery (Alinsky’s fifth rule for radicals) by Pratt and keep its fragile coalition in one piece, because…

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Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since May: R+8,830

• If you’d like to understand just how screwed Democrats are long-term in Florida, consider the fact that most states in this sample of seven are showing (or have shown) some signs of life for Democrats, even if only for the run-up to primary elections. This is not happening in Florida at all, as Democrats fell further back in May than they did in April.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

  ---

  IOWA

Net Shift Since May: D+1,953

• April’s shift was the first technical gain for Democrats in raw registrations since I’ve been tracking these figures, but they still managed to fall further back as far as percentage of voter registration thanks to maintenance that winnowed both parties’ memberships. In May, Democrats made their first legitimate gain since I’ve been covering these on a monthly basis, both in raw numbers and by percentage.

• The pro-Democrat shift is tied exclusively to the Iowa primaries, which concluded last week. Republicans made nice gains as well, so I would wager this is a blip in a long-term trend, not a reversion of Iowa to battleground status. Democrats were nominating statewide candidates and four U.S. House candidates, while Republicans were only nominating two House candidates.

• Iowa has two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party. The majority could be won or lost for the GOP depending on how IA-1 and IA-3 shake out.

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since May: D+4,008 Total, D+5,668 Active

• The best news you’ll read in this month’s report, believe it or not, is that Pennsylvania’s figures only reflect the gains above. They are down from the past two months because the Pennsylvania primaries have come and gone - as I’ve been predicting and noticing in county-by-county numbers. See the comment from last month:

  Just as I explained last month, these numbers do not make sense based on registration trends elsewhere, even in places where Democrats are making temporary gains. In fact, I see no possibility that Oregon should be making Republican gains (it is) but Pennsylvania would be having a genuine change of course unrelated to an approaching election. Most of this shift appears to be Philadelphia-centric, and validating my point is the fact that Erie County has shifted Republican in the last quarter (since the February update), and Northampton County is generally treading water. There does not appear to be a legitimate coalition shift away from MAGA in Pennsylvania with the working-class voter.

• Republicans have held their own in the two weeks since primaries ended, and the Erie and Northampton bellwethers are largely unchanged. Party switchers have favored the GOP in the past two weeks, and I suspect the bleeding will stop moving forward. Pennsylvania sits significantly to the right of its November 2024 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since May: R+179

• The North Carolina GOP again made a narrow lead in the voter roll with primaries in the rear view mirror. The overall lead is now 116,616 to the right of the former GOP deficit at the time of the November 2024 election.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since May: No Update

• New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for said Senate seat.

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since May: No Update

• I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses - which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips.

• Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here - not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.

NEVADA

Net Shift Since May: D+2,135

• June 9 is almost here (Nevada primaries), and with it, we should see an end to the monthly Clark County onslaught. Clark was again responsible for nearly the entirety of Democrat gains in May. Republicans cling to a narrow voter registration edge of +3,609 - or +12,809 right of when Trump won the state by 3.1% in November 2024.

• Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Please consider upgrading to support my work and obtain the most accurate and relevant political information available on the platform. Thank you.

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Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact. I will pass through the map in the same way I did for the 2024 election cycle, starting in the east and ending in the west.

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Deep South (AL, LA, MS)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Pennsylvania

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

MAGA Americans first became optimistic for the 2026 midterms when Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed new maps into law that essentially guaranteed Republicans would improve upon a 25-13 U.S. House seat advantage over Democrats.

The maps held up in court, and while many think they are sure to pick up five new seats for the GOP, I’m not so certain that will pay off as soon as 2026. California, which is currently running a complete embarrassment of a primary election, is trying to wipe out five GOP seats and is more likely than not to get the edge on Texas. Fortunately for the rest of us, Virginia’s criminal enterprise was shut down last month, and the Republicans have now officially won the skirmish post-Callais.

Here is my evaluation of Texas’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

TEXAS

TX-1: Nathaniel Moran (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

TX-2: Open seat, Steve Toth (R) winner of GOP primary unseating Dan Crenshaw - SAFE REP

TX-3: Keith Self (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

TX-4: Pat Fallon (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-5: Lance Gooden (R), running for 5th term - SAFE

TX-6: Jake Ellzey (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-7: Lizzie Fletcher (D), running for 5th term - SAFE

TX-8: Open seat, Jessica Steinmann (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-9: Open seat, Alex Mealer (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP

TX-10: Open seat, Chris Gober (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-11: August Pfluger (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-12: Craig Goldman (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE

TX-13: Ronny Jackson (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-14: Randy Weber (R), running for 8th term - SAFE

TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

TX-16: Veronica Escobar (D), running for 5th term in El Paso seat - SAFE

TX-17: Pete Sessions (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-18: Christian Menefee (D), running for 1st full term - SAFE

TX-19: Open seat, Tom Sell (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-20: Joaquin Castro (D), running for 8th term in San Antonio seat - SAFE

TX-21: Open seat, Mark Teixeira (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-22: Open seat, Trever Nehls (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-23: Open seat, Brandon Herrera (R) winner of GOP primary - SAFE REP

TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R), running for 4th term - SAFE

TX-25: Roger Williams (R), running for 8th term - SAFE

TX-26: Brandon Gill (R), running for 2nd term - SAFE

TX-27: Michael Cloud (R), running for 6th term - SAFE

TX-29: Sylvia Garcia (D), running for 5th term - SAFE

TX-30: Open seat, Frederick Haynes (D) winner of DEM primary to replace Jasmine Crockett - SAFE DEM

TX-31: John Carter (R), running for 13th term - SAFE

TX-32: Open seat, Jace Yarbrough (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP

TX-33: Open seat, Colin Allred (D) winner of DEM primary - SAFE DEM

TX-35: Open seat, Carlos De La Cruz (R) winner of GOP primary - REP FLIP

TX-36: Brian Babin (R), running for 7th term - SAFE

TX-37: Open seat, Greg Casar (D) running for first term in new boundaries of Austin seat (3rd term overall) - SAFE DEM

TX-38: Open seat, Jon Bonck (R) winner of GOP primary to replace Wesley Hunt - SAFE REP

TEXAS SUMMARY

Democrat 8

Republican 28

Leaner 1 (TX-28)

Decisive 1 (TX-34)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on TX-28 (Democrat leaner) and TX-34 (decisive seat). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources these races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for, rather than spending on seats already decided.

It’s Time to Turn Texas Blue…Yet Again

You can set your watch to it, it’s so predictable. Every two years, this is the year Texas is finally ready to turn over a new leaf, reject the brand of politics that has made it one of the primary landing spots for political refugees from failed states, and return to the Democrat fold it belonged to in the days of slavery all the way up until the middle of the 20th century, when it became playable on the presidential level for the GOP.

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The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Florida

Georgia

Illinois and Iowa

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Pennsylvania

Virginia

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INTRODUCTION

With Georgia’s primary front and center two weeks ago, I separated the Peach State from the rest of the region I am calling the “Deep South.” I’ve had to take a “wait and see” approach on Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi with so much up in the air since the Callais decision was handed down just over a month ago, which paves the way to fully end racially drawn district lines.

Yesterday, the Supreme Court allowed Alabama to proceed with a previously struck down map that stands to net the GOP an extra seat. Louisiana took a cut at one seat of their own post-Callais, and Mississippi punted for another time and saved Bennie Thompson for perhaps one final term. With the dust settled, I’m now ready to give my opinion. Sadly, the Deep South (plus South Carolina) could have all but secured the midterms for the GOP with a little bit of fortitude needed to squeeze out an extra three seats from what we will find in this analysis.

Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

Analysis

ALABAMA

AL-1: Open seat with Jerry Carl nominated, Barry Moore (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate - SAFE REP

AL-2: Shomari Figures (D) redistricted out, Hampton Harris nominated for GOP - REP FLIP

AL-3: Mike Rogers (R), running for 13th term - SAFE

AL-4: Robert Aderholt (R), running for 16th term - SAFE

AL-5: Dale Strong (R), running for 3rd term - SAFE

AL-6: Gary Palmer (R), running for 7th term - SAFE

AL-7: Terri Sewell (D), running for 9th term - SAFE

LOUISIANA

LA-1: Steve Scalise (R), running for 11th term - SAFE

LA-2: Troy Carter (D), running for 4th term and allowed to survive by the legislature - SAFE

LA-3: Clay Higgins (R), running for 6th term - SAFE

LA-4: Mike Johnson (R), Speaker of the House, running for 6th term - SAFE

LA-5: Open seat, Julia Letlow (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate - SAFE REP

LA-6: Cleo Fields (D) redistricted out, GOP nomination open - REP FLIP

MS-1: Trent Kelly (R), running for 7th term, +39.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MS-2: Bennie Thompson (D), running for 18th term and allowed to survive by the governor, +24.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

MS-3: Michael Guest (R), running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

MS-4: Mike Ezell (R), running for 3rd term, +47.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

DEEP SOUTH SUMMARY

Democrat 3

Republican 14

None of the 17 seats in the Deep South figure to be competitive. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won outside of this region, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

Now Telegram, at least in the U.S., is in a downward spiral. Posts there get about a third of the exposure they once did now that everyone has flocked back to X under Elon Musk. Much has changed in five years. The Biden regime is gone, replaced by the same president they shoved out of the White House with a fraudulent election, and very rarely do we hear anything about “81 million votes” unless presented from our side in Kari Lake-style mockery. They know that number is way too unbelievable and have instead centered any discussion of the 2020 quasi election on President Trump’s response to it, which culminated in the events of January 6, 2021.

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As I documented in my book, The American War on Election Corruption, 40% of Americans didn’t trust Joe Biden’s victory was legitimate in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election. The number of Americans lacking trust in that election (and all elections) being decided fairly rose as high as 66% in 2023, and still hovers over 60% today. Roughly 5 out of 8 Americans lack faith in an elections system once thought to be the envy of the world and designed to bolster a Constitutional Republic. In short - we respect the results of legitimate elections instead of organizing in the streets and slaughtering one another for access to the levers of power and control over the direction of government.

That contract exists only as long as the public thinks it is getting a fair shake. For years, “election deniers” have been railroaded, lost jobs, and marginalized for pointing out the obvious - that our elections hold much in common with processes and outcomes found in Third World nations. Trump, being the once-in-a-generation communicator that he is, mocked the machine so relentlessly that people now ridicule Biden’s win (supposedly the largest haul of popular votes ever obtained) in casual political conversation. Those who once held “let it go” opinions are now on the edge of the trench, bayonets fixed, suggesting all hell is about to break loose when it comes to election truth coming out. Last month, I wrote about Susie Wiles’s about-face on the 2020 election, and why it signals accountability is coming:

A recent comment from Ms. Wiles:

We had a lovely dinner and at the end of it, he wanted to know why he won Florida but maybe struggled in some other states—that I think we’re going to find out he actually did win.

Granted, this is a “friendly” making this comment. So, what exactly is new on this front today? Let me show you.

Meet Nate Silver, Stephen Richer’s long-lost twin. Nate is a pundit with a large following on the center-left. One thing I like about Nate is that he’s a huge baseball nerd, which I relate to tremendously even if I feel somewhat detached from today’s game and MLB branding begging for approval from left-wingers who hate everything about American traditions, anyway. Silver hit it big two decades ago with his own brand of analytics and election tracking, and nailed the Obama-era elections with only a handful of misses.

Since then, he’s failed to adapt his methodology to handle the Trump era. Last time around, he fashioned a model that made the election essentially a toss-up when Kamala Harris never truly led it for a single day of the campaign. It was essentially Harris 50.000001 to Trump 49.999999:

Silver Bulletin

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

🕒 Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are…

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2 years ago · 4332 likes · 5426 comments · Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

So, the left-wingers get the copium they must have to survive Election Day/Night, and when Trump inevitably wins, he was essentially working with even odds, right? That’s called splitting the baby. Well, yesterday, one of the most fascinating X post flurries I’ve seen in a while came across my feed, and it was a doozy:

Huh?

You mean to tell me I lost a six-figure career over calling out the obvious five years ago and now you can acknowledge this as if you were telling someone it was going to be hot in Arizona this summer? Then it clicked to me - there are marching orders floating around to start easing this conversation into the public psyche, and it seems linked with Susie Wiles’s statements I dissected last month.

Change appears inevitable, and the matrix appears to be tipping off what comes next.

Read more

The assessment for the 2026 House race begins the same way assessing the 2024 Electoral College did - by eliminating safe red and blue races in order to spot the leaners and decisive races. My analysis of those races will follow the diagnosis of safe races, and the delay will be prudent because the primaries are much more important for the races that are still up in the air.

Previous:

Appalachia (KY, TN, WV)

Carolinas (NC, SC)

Florida

Georgia

Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)

Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ)

New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)

New York

Pennsylvania

Virginia

INTRODUCTION

With New England and New York behind, these evaluations have been getting redder and redder. That stops with this installment and the extreme gerrymander that is Illinois, where over 12 Democrat districts can be found within 50 miles of one another, all crammed into the northeast corner of the state and drawn out of Chicago and the surrounding counties.

Illinois’ Republican districts are artfully scattered throughout the vast hinterlands of the state, but Democrats still carved two more for Rock Island and East St. Louis, respectively. In Iowa, Republicans currently hold all four seats, but are going to be on defense in two races that look to be photo finishes in the making.

Here are my evaluations of each state’s 2024 presidential election:

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Analysis

ILLINOIS

IL-1: Jonathan Jackson (D), running for 3rd term, +31.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-2: Open seat with Donna Miller nominated, Robin Kelly (D) retiring, +35.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

IL-3: Delia Ramirez (D), running for 3rd term, +34.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-4: Open seat with Patty Garcia nominated, Jesus Garcia (D) retiring, +40.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

IL-5: Mike Quigley (D), running for 10th term, +38.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-6: Sean Casten (D), running for 5th term, +8.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-7: Open seat with La Shawn Ford nominated, Danny Davis (D) retiring, +66.6% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

IL-8: Open seat with Melissa Bean nominated, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) retiring, +14.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

IL-9: Open seat with Daniel Bliss nominated, Jan Schakowsky (D) retiring, +36.8% margin in 2024 - SAFE DEM

IL-10: Brad Schneider (D), running for 6th term, +20.0% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-11: Bill Foster (D), running for 8th term, +11.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-12: Mike Bost (R), running for 7th term, +49.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-13: Nikki Budzinski (D), running for 3rd term, +16.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 - SAFE

IL-15: Mary Miller (R), running for 4th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

IL-16: Darin LaHood (R), running for 7th term, uncontested in 2024 - SAFE

IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D), running for 3rd term, +8.8% in 2024 would be a leaner in a favorable GOP year, but not in 2026 - SAFE

IOWA

IA-2: Open seat, Ashley Hinson (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +15.5% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

IA-4: Open seat, Randy Feenstra (R) retiring to run for governor, +34.4% margin in 2024 - SAFE REP

ILLINOIS + IOWA SUMMARY

Democrat 14

Republican 5

Decisive 2 (IA-1, IA-3)

Future analysis, with safe seats accounted for, will drill down on IA-1 and IA-3 (decisive seats). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won, with well-established midterm dynamics hampering the president’s party accounted for.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.