Simply put, when Americans voted for a political revolution and won, they didn’t vote for a 35% approval rating and they sure as hell didn’t come out in droves just so the Republican Party could get shellacked in the very next midterms. They were told about America’s decline, viewed that fateful quadrennial presidential election as a last ditch effort to reverse course peacefully in America, and responded with a popular vote win that featured Republican presidential victories in:

• Arizona

• Michigan

• Nevada

• Pennsylvania

• Wisconsin

…and blowouts in Texas, Florida, and Ohio. This unrelenting base was ready to crawl over shattered glass and gas station bathrooms to vote for a man who became the oldest president of all time upon inauguration. That old man could have enjoyed his fame in retirement, but chose to step into a toxic arena and wear every label, accusation, and slander imaginable and even survived an assassin’s bullet.

To imagine that this man would be underwater and through uncontrollable world events struggle to deliver the full economic revival he promised his working-class base just two years later, and on the verge of losing midterms, is utterly unimaginable, unpalatable, and unacceptable to the people who believed in him.

Thirty-five percent approval.

In the celebratory aftermath of his victory and the rip-roaring fast start of the administration, no one would pencil in a 12% loss to Democrats in the House popular vote, and a loss of 26 seats, along with key gubernatorial races in must-win states. Seeing the base fray at the seams was not what I’d have envisioned watching such a political revolution unfold just two years earlier.

My assumption is that you had no idea I was talking about President Ronald Reagan’s administration and the beating the Republicans received in 1982.

Yes, indeed - at the start of 1983, right after the Democrats cleaned House, President Reagan held a 35% approval rating.

This was back before we had 900 different polls using different methodologies to produce heavily propagandized results, so a 35% approval rating hurts a lot more than the fabricated ones encircling President Trump’s administration these days. Reagan was widely thought to be a one-term president in the making at the same point in his administration as we find ourselves into Trump 2.0’s administration.

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Likewise, vultures are circling today - forecasting doom in 2028 despite Republicans performing extremely well in voter registration bearing down on a midterm that, according to 92 years of history, favors Democrats, and the rapid emergence of the DSA faction of the Democrat Party.

Three-time Trump voters perpetuate online conversations 24/7 spreading negative energy (“blackpilling”) and convincing those on the fence that the fight isn’t worth fighting and exists only to be lost. Now let me tell you how we got here, how we get out, and what mindset shift must occur if there is to be a freer future obtained through peaceful means.

TALKING SENSE IN AN AGE OF POLITICAL ILLITERACY

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Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since July: R+14,082

• Florida Democrats can’t catch a break. They added 24,463 new party members in the run-up to primaries this month and still got smoked by a net 14,082 (more than June) by the GOP. Republicans have now widened their lead by a net of 429,717 since the November 2024 election, a truly astounding performance. If you don’t ever want to live under Democrats, move to Florida.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

• Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)

IOWA

Net Shift Since July: D+583

• After a big gain in June directly tied to primaries, it’s back to a grind, although a small gain for Democrats on paper. Iowa has a bigger GOP registration advantage by raw count than it did in November 2024, but slightly left as a percentage thanks to a larger count of registered voters.

• Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely, and now a gubernatorial contest looking tight.

• Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since July: D+7,079 Total, R+34,722 Active

• Democrats put up an overall gain similar to their June pickup, suggesting they have active voter registration efforts underway in the urban areas; however, a voter roll purge annihilated more than half of what active voter registration lead remained for Democrats. Was this prompted by the big exposé in New Jersey, and a purge of non-citizens perhaps?

• I’m certainly happy to see the overall lead get close to a tie, but Democrat gains in the overall roll suggest a mixed bag ahead of midterms. I think the Democrat lurch to DSA-driven is going to prevent Pennsylvania from making a serious move back to blue.

• Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since July: D+136 Total, D+3,611 Active

• The overall voter roll has a lot less volatility (D+136) than in Pennsylvania, which makes me think Democrats have two vastly different operations going on in those states; however, the Democrats had a nice gain in active registrations, which could just be efforts to reactivate existing registrations rather than finding entirely new voters.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

• Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since July: R+4,085

• New Hampshire’s first update in three months is out, and it’s a big gain for the GOP. This is a product of voter roll maintenance (we’ll still take it), which is down 57,486 since last update.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.

• Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since July: D+8,005

• It’s been a while since I’ve updated Arizona, but the Secretary of State’s numbers dropped last month, so I’ve captured them here. Democrats have made up +8,005 registrations in the last few months, mostly out of Maricopa County.

• Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large. I have a strong suspicion that the GOP is having membership issues with the Mormon church, also evident in Utah - and not good for the 2026 midterm outlook. I remain optimistic long-term for Arizona, but the GOP needs to get serious on its urban strategy.

• Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices

NEVADA

Net Shift Since July: D+1,335

• Democrats expanded their lead by another 1,335 last month, but that was three times lower than June, which points to recent gains being tied to primaries. As expected, last month was powered by Clark County - but also by voter roll maintenance in red counties. Washoe County was mostly a push, and is a better representation of the balance of power than any other county.

• Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

_{Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.}

Indiana won the national championship, so by default the answer points to them. Still, at that level, there isn’t much separating any of those teams on any given night. That’s why I say Ole Miss, my alma mater, was one missed tackle away from having Miami beaten in the semifinal. Rather than settling for a field goal attempt, Miami punched in an early touchdown. Ole Miss lost by 4.

These games are often decided in the margins. Who missed a tackle? Who hung a curveball up in the zone? Who missed their free throws?

The scouts usually know who has faster players, but if the other team is known to make fewer mistakes or averages multiple takeaways on defense, they take this into account, too. In the event of a mismatch, the team at the disadvantage has absolutely no room for error. Unfortunately, when we shift this conversation into politics, the GOP comes in at an organic disadvantage, and is the party getting ready to lose it in the margins.

Republicans can win the midterms, at least from where the analysis stands today. Redistricting has made this possible, as roughly 89% of seats are highly likely (or even guaranteed) to go either red or blue. Late last month, I published my most defined analysis to date - 203 Republican, 187 Democrat to start, with 22 leaners pushing that to 209 Republican, 203 Democrat - with 23 decisive seats to decide it all:

Again:

Safe seats: Already decided, or exceedingly likely regardless of margin

Leaners: Based on context of the 2026 midterm, easily predictable but with a chance of upset

Decisive: Those seats most instrumental in deciding the majority, with most likely to have tight margins

One of those safe seats in my modeling is OH-7, which lies just west of metro Cleveland and is held by two-term incumbent Max Miller.

Miller’s seat rates as Safe Republican in my model because of these two margins:

2024 Miller (inc.) +15.0%

2022 Miller +10.7%

Granted, a third-party candidate in 2024 got 12.8% of the vote, but Miller still won with a majority and probably would have had 54-55% without the third man in the race. Recently, Chuck Edwards (R, NC-11) bailed on his campaign because of a sexual harassment scandal and ethics investigation, and unfortunately for Miller, he’s the man on the hot seat due to ugly personal drama now unfolding in real time.

It’s bad enough that I’m now downgrading my models, making an already uphill Republican climb against 92 years of midterm history that much harder.

Here is the damage, along with my thoughts on this constant drama:

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Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE

I’ve written extensively about the rise of the DSA-aligned candidates who have been punching through a little at a time, mostly in long-gone locales like New York City, Denver, and Seattle. I’ve made specific notations that this hasn’t been tried in a critical battleground state in which widespread appeal will be required, particularly when the task at hand will be to peel back that pesky Trump coalition that has been squandered by Democrats in the “Rust Belt” and Upper Midwest over the past decade.

From that article:

Forget New York, Minneapolis, Seattle, and Los Angeles for a minute. They all fit the same profile. How do you think this lurch toward a more extreme ideology will play out in Lancaster, Altoona, Saginaw, Muskegon, Oshkosh, Sheboygan, Surprise, Casa Grande, Henderson, Macon, or Columbus?

The most prominent shifts are those in the Rust Belt, Upper Midwest, and heavily Latino areas in Florida, Texas, and California. They were spurred on by the left’s continuing lurch toward legitimate socialism, the right’s turn away from outdated conservatism and toward pragmatic populism (problem solving). The only way to send those gains back is to revert to neoconservatism, making the left’s inevitable lurching less noticeable.

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I am becoming more and more convinced that Democrat strategists read this newsletter. They seem to understand that specificity matters. Of course the utter lunatics they are nominating in New York City are going to win their Harris +60% seats. Their psychopath in CO-1, who isn’t even American by birth, is going to win in Denver because a majority of people there have no problem dodging syringes and feces when they go into LoDo to get high and watch some ratty emo band dance around on a makeshift stage. They know that, and they also know that sending these communists into the heart of the Trump revolution is a bridge too far. That’s why we got a big Whitmer-aided push for this individual:

That would be Haley Stevens, who left-wing media isn’t exactly a fan of but for necessity (depending on the outlet). In the six Midwestern (Industrial and Upper) states Trump completely overhauled (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), Democrats have exactly one playbook. Yes, their grassroots lunatics are exactly the same lunatics campaigning openly in the Bay Area, much like your standard right-winger in Vermont is as right-wing as the ones in Wyoming. The common ground is that neither seems to understand how everyone else around them thinks (and votes) and as such, gives no thought to how to reach those who don’t have ideological uniformity with them.

This playbook is best executed by running the most bland, boring white woman as possible, pulling her recording string, and having something like this come out on the campaign stage:

Hi, y’all, I’m Tammy Sue Morgan and I’m just like you. Grand-pappy worked right down yonder in the factory until the global special interests closed it down in the 1980s, but I’m one of you and I’m proud of my roots and that’s why I’m standing here today. I want the same things you want, a higher wage, better schools, and safe streets to raise our children in. They should be able to play in that creek just like we did when we were getting ready to watch the (Lions/Packers/Bears/Steelers/Eagles/Vikings) with our families. I will put my state over party every day of the week and here are my Republican friends behind me to tell you a story about that time I held a real shotgun and waved an American flag at a parade with our county sheriff 42 years ago.

Successful cases:

• Tammy Baldwin

• The Wisconsin Supreme Court

• Tina Smith

• Amy Klobuchar

• Gretchen Whitmer

• Jocelyn Benson

Many of these test cases are on the ballot this year. But not Haley Stevens.

ENTER ABDUL EL-SAYED

I am convinced the Democrat machine pulled out all the stops, including aggressive mail-in ballot fraud, to stop him, but nevertheless - he has prevailed in his quest for the Democrat nomination to replace the retiring Gary Peters (a male version of the generic boring woman giving her biography above).

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• Fuller turnouts

• Continuation or reversal of established trendlines

• Voter registration by party

• Benchmark from cousin state (for example, pegging New Jersey based on where New York is)

Being good at predicting midterms is a different story. That’s like a masterful changeup or curveball since the fastball isn’t working. There are going to be a lot of people who are way wrong this November because they don’t know about the 92 years of midterm history setting the stage for 2026, nor do they consider the severity of the redistricting changes that give the GOP a chance for a real upset.

Ultimately, midterms are hard to nail because they rest so heavily on who the president is. Certain seats are not in play for the GOP this year because Donald Trump is president, just as they weren’t in play when Reagan was president. The next time a Democrat is president (God help us), certain seats will be out of reach for them, too. Midterms are so stubborn that if you want to do well in them, you almost have to hope your party isn’t in the White House - and no one wants that.

In three months (or four when we allow for the time California and Washington need to count ballots), the stage will be set for the first Democrats to start making their way to center stage to serve as party standard bearer in an emerging DSA Age.

Top Four Democrats for the Party Nomination

KAMALA HARRIS

Why I Think She’s Running

She had an opportunity to run for (and win) the governorship of California this fall, but declined. That’s the biggest tell. The next biggest tell is how she’s being trotted out with a makeover to cheerlead for the Democrats, all while ripping off Trump’s lines like “too big to rig.”

Why She Can Win the Nomination

Democrats are jettisoning New Hampshire and trying to shift focus to South Carolina, a state they can’t win presidentially, so the black vote gets her off to a huge start. If you believe polls, she commands that vote handily over anticipated candidates, and it was Jim Clyburn’s pull here that got Biden’s campaign off of life support.

Why She Can’t Win the Nomination

Four years older, four years less appealing, and four years still as unintelligent and unoriginal as she’s always been. She’s counting on being the next Trump, to fight back against all odds and make it back to the top. There’s only one problem - she’s no Donald Trump, and she’s no more likely to win over the blue collars in the Midwest in 2028 than she was two years ago when she hemorrhaged the party’s minority support.

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Rachel and I got married in 2024, and in that year, she was reelected to her seat in the State House of Representatives, Legislative District 17, for a second term alongside President Trump’s victory in the state. You can read her legislative profile here. As you can tell by the photo above, I far out-kicked my coverage when I tricked her into taking me in after my years sojourning about the country. She’s not just another phony - here is a little proof:

The photo above is of her accepting her award as 2026 “Champion of Liberty” from The Republican Liberty Caucus of Arizona. It was based on her actual voting record in the legislature, not on platitudes and social media swipes. Rachel is a champion for free and fair elections and has also taken an active role in family court reform, pushing back against judicial corruption and being a voice for so many harmed by a system that seems to lack accountability at any level.

Follow Rachel on X

She never wanted to be a full-time “politician,” and she basically threatens to kick my ass when I throw her under the bus and tell someone what she does in the spring, and in the margins throughout the year. She’s following through on that promise, and has announced that this run will be her last for this seat (even though she could run again in 2028 before being forced to switch chambers or quit entirely). She’s not going away, and we have a plan we will announce it in due time…

But for now, we have to fend off a very aggressive Democrat Party. Each district has two seats, and in 2024, the Democrats managed to snatch one of them from Rachel’s previous GOP seat mate. They are ready to spend millions to knock out Rachel and her new running mate, John Winchester, and possess both seats in LD17 now that primaries are over and the ticket is set in what is thought to be one of the most critical districts in the state. This is the only article I’m going to be writing about what you can do to support her, so here goes:

• At minimum, your prayerful support of Rachel is greatly appreciated. She’s a real-life regular American citizen that felt led to run, and she won. She’s up against a lot here, including every attack imaginable from those who want to ruin this state.

• Please consider donating to her campaign. Even if it’s a small amount, there will be tens of thousands of you reading this article. Every bit helps and will be used with precision in target areas.

If you’re willing to donate, please do so at donatetorachel.com

We are looking to finish strong, and I’m very proud of Rachel. Thank you all for being loyal readers of this newsletter. Victory is the only way!

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

I got a lot of comments on social media suggesting I was out of my mind, highlighting her previous comments and political priorities. Then, almost exactly two years later to the day, ta-dah!

Not only did Gabbard switch parties, she became one of the best and most well-liked MAGA voices of the Trump era and the first Trump 47 Director of National Intelligence. I believe she will be back in the saddle somewhere important once she has her personal tribulations behind her.

Likewise, a lot has changed in the political universe since John Fetterman was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022. He quickly came to blows with the Democrat establishment over a variety of issues and had enough political sense not to pretend Trump wasn’t well-liked in his home state of Pennsylvania. We will soon find out if his back-handed praise of the President was heartfelt or a matter of political survival.

I’ve been after Fetterman for a while to find his way out from under the dark cloud he has carried his standard beneath:

In another article, I wrote about how Fetterman clearly knows the sentiment of voters in Pennsylvania:

Clear Reasons for the Democrat Shutdown:

1. Gin up base anger for November 4, 2025, elections.

2. Use huge margins, partly generated from off-year election dynamics, to use as an albatross around GOP necks.

3. Pressure GOP to settle shutdown on Democrat terms; given their lack of any political power in the federal government, they were looking for all the leverage they could get.

John Fetterman knew all of this and knew exactly what type of boomerang effect was likely to occur if and only if Senate Republicans held firm and were willing to keep government shut down.

Now, I am confident Senator Fetterman is on the verge of becoming a Republican:

Top 3 Tells Fetterman Will Switch to GOP

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As I recount a happy memory with my son and prepare to dish on today’s events, I can’t help but remember a moment that had me livid. It was July 23, 2020, at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., and NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci threw out the ceremonial first pitch for the long-awaited “Opening Day,” which had been pushed back thanks to draconian COVID-19 measures forced down the throats of the American people for what turned out to be the desired impact of throwing the coming election to Joe Biden. He was then spotted in the stands not giving a damn about masking and forgot there would be cameras on him:

“Baseball games for me, but not for thee, peasant. Make sure you figure out how to cut your own hair, replace the six-figure job that just got ripped out from under you, and explain to your children why we destroyed their world for a virus resembling the common cold (and that would come to cause no excess mortality in statistics).”

Straight up French Revolution stuff, right there. I have written about Fauci’s fate under the Trump 47 administration in no uncertain terms:

Fauci had an early start this morning before the Senate Homeland Security Committee, which will undoubtedly obtain many great clips for Senators to circulate for reelection campaigns, while getting zero accountability or exacting zero meaningful consequences. Call it the Gowdy Doctrine, or call it whatever you want. Someone needs to ask my favorite math question related to Fauci’s deliberate botches:

Doctor, why did you make up a social distancing reference of six feet when the rest of the world used two meters? Do you realize that is a difference of six and three-quarters inches? I thought our strain was among the most deadly?

As an elections snob (or “anti-voting activist” as called by Democracy Docket), revisiting Fauci’s impact on public life from 2020-22 enrages me. I remember hearing all the time, “Why doesn’t Trump fire Fauci (and Birx)?” Well, let me answer that for you:

I ignore polling almost completely. I focus on actual votes and legitimate political trends. The map snippet you see above is from Tarrant County, Texas, centered over core Fort Worth and the suburban space to its southwest. Precincts in light yellow are precincts in which President Trump had fewer votes in 2024 than he did in 2020. Precincts in dark yellow are those in which President Trump underperformed his 2016 totals. That’s major GOP atrophy, and those are the voters who had no issue opposing Obama for eight years, but as soon as the GOP emerged with a candidate who said mean things, questioned institutions run by Fauci clones, and got in the ditch with his opponents to punch back, they bolted. My mapping can find them in your counties, too, and they are critical for identifying in modern campaigns (email me at skeshel@protonmail.com for a quote).

Had Trump done what everyone wanted, and unceremoniously shitcanned the little twerp, the pearl clutching GOP coalition would have stood in abject horror as this vaunted member of the valiant medical establishment slinked away to a CNN contributor position. They were the ones, after all, screeching at you on your neighborhood Facebook groups to stop killing grandmas and stop caring so much about your career progress.

That is why Fauci didn’t get fired.

Yet, as I will demonstrate in the balance of this article, Fauci’s legacy with regard to American elections threatens to outlive his tenure as an in-house medical tyrant.

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Here are the nine races that will determine which party wins the chamber majority:

Key Races

• Georgia (Jon Ossoff - D, incumbent)

• Maine (Susan Collins - R, incumbent)

• Michigan (Democrat-held, incumbent retiring)

• New Hampshire (Democrat-held, incumbent retiring)

• North Carolina (Republican-held, incumbent retiring)

Second-Tier Races

• Alaska (Dan Sullivan - R, incumbent)

• Iowa (Republican-held, incumbent retiring)

• Ohio (Jon Husted - R, incumbent)

• Texas (Republican-held, incumbent defeated in primary)

Democrats could win all five key races, which I do not consider likely given the strength of Susan Collins in Maine, a developing race against a radical DSA-aligned candidate in Michigan, and the Sununu name in New Hampshire. But let’s say they do win them all. That would have Republicans in the lead 51 to 49, requiring Democrats to win two of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas for a clear majority. They have a pathway to victory; but it’s not a realistic one.

Today, I have done the research and I’m going to demonstrate why I consider the Republicans a strong favorite to hold the Senate.

Trump 2024 Margins for Second-Tier Races

Alaska +13.1%

Iowa +13.2%

Ohio +11.2%

Texas +13.7%

2022 Midterm Analysis

All analysis is from the perspective of the president’s party, given that we are facing a GOP-president midterm in November.

Here’s how to read the table above, using California as the example. In 2020, Joe Biden won California by a certified margin of 29.2% (yes, I know, it is artificially inflated). In 2022, the Democrat Alex Padilla won the Senate seat by 22.2%. That is seven points to the right of the 2020 presidential margin, indicated by a positive number in the “drift” column. Padilla was not an incumbent.

The table includes 15 Senate races, all in states Biden carried in 2020. The only state Biden won (“won” in this case) in which the Republican won in 2022’s Senate contests was Wisconsin, and incumbent Ron Johnson held his seat 1.6% right of the 2020 presidential margin.

Incumbents held 13 of 13 seats in Biden-won states.

9 of 15 seats had rightward drift from the 2020 presidential election.

Hawaii is the extreme outlier with leftward drift of 16.0%, driven by a weak Republican challenger to a strong Democrat incumbent (Schatz). Even keeping this outlier in the numbers, the average drift in these 15 Biden seats comes out to 0.4% rightward. This underscores why 2022 was a “pink trickle” rather than a red wave, and should help you understand why many are pondering if 2026 will be like a “reverse 2022” (Democrats expecting big gains but disappointed in outcome).

Hawaii excluded, none of the Senate seats won by the president had enough drift in either direction to flip any of the second-tier Senate races up in 2026.

2018 Midterm Analysis

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My book, The American War on Election Corruption, a bestseller out of the gates thanks to you, had a strong push this week after President Trump’s July 16 address on election interference and manipulation. The print, audio, and ebook formats all had substantial movement. Please consider buying a copy today for yourself or those whose brains you know are being manipulated by the mainstream media:

Buy Book

II. Democracy Docket Triggered by Captain K

Democracy Docket’s Matt Cohen has an unhealthy obsession with me, and calls me an “anti-voting” activist. Sorry, Matt, but I’m only anti-fraud and on a mission to cure the electile dysfunction you and your grifting organization perpetuate. You can see me highlighted here at the 2:00 mark in his latest video. In honor of my meeting with the great Bert Callais, here is our photo from May in Baton Rouge, right after the Supreme Court sided with him in Callais v. Louisiana:

III. District and County Mapping Underway

I am in the process of mapping battleground districts and other critical counties for this year’s cycles, which will also be relevant for the 2028 presidential election. You should have received two emails detailing the mission with options to either sponsor a district or county, or chip in to the general fund I use to purchase data and pay for the mapping service. The maps are more detailed than the screenshots above and come in packets of four per district/county, helping identify the most important precincts for campaigning and counter-ballot trafficking. Note, this is not inexpensive, but a worthwhile project nonetheless. Contact me directly at skeshel@protonmail.com to inquire.

See the article below for more detail on the mapping concept:

IV. Rachel on to General Election

My far better half, Rep. Rachel Keshel, is officially on the General Election ballot for November for reelection to the Arizona House. Her primary was uncontested for the first time, so we had the rare benefit of being able to save all funds for the General. We are up against a massive spending machine looking to flip her seat in one of Arizona’s most sought-after districts. If you’re so inclined, please consider pitching in to her campaign here.

You’re not supporting just any Republican - she’s a real fighter for liberty and fair elections:

V. Substack Live - 7/26/26

Tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. EST, I’ll be hosting a Substack Live for paid subscribers. We will discuss the past two weeks in current events and can throw around ideas and questions as they come up. You should have that link in your inbox this morning.

As always, your support of my newsletter is greatly appreciated. I aim to give you the most relevant and actionable takes rather than hopium and misleading narratives, which you can find anywhere. If you choose to become a paid subscriber, you’ll understand why I have one of the best retention rates on the Substack platform and have a strong reputation for accuracy.

Subscribe now

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

That assessment was based on Trump’s enormous vote gain over his 2016 performance and other analytical holes my methodology accounts for. And, what do you know? In 2024, with the ballot collection dialed down substantially, here’s where the Harris-Trump race came in:

Harris +5.9%.

I had very similar accountings manifest with Virginia, Illinois, and California, among other states. As I’ve laid out in The American War on Election Corruption, these states run elections that are rigged by which laws they carry on the books, primarily:

• Automatic Voter Registration

• Universal Mail-In Voting (or expanded mail-in voting)

• Ballot Harvesting

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New Jersey has had Automatic Voter Registration since 2018, and it had enough time to detonate any remaining integrity in the state’s voter roll prior to Biden’s enormous ballot explosion defying all previous Democrat growth potential. They don’t have Universal postal voting, but in 2020, more than 90% of the vote came through the mail thanks to the state’s Democrat leaders pulling out all the stops to ensure there would be no chance of a Trump upset (remember, Trump kicked the tires on the Garden State before COVID-19 hit). Ballot harvesting, as I described in the book with a major DOJ bust in New Jersey under Biden, is criminalized - but hard to detect and certainly at work as proven by convictions.

Which brings us to the first fruits of Trump’s primetime address held on July 16 and made evident by Governor Mikie Sherrill rushing to cover her ass this week. I have made my address summary piece available to all for reference:

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I am weighing a couple shifts between safe/leaner categories, but my combined assessment would still come out to 209 to 203 favoring the Republican Party before sorting decisive seats. Again, for the ratings system:

Safe: Seat unlikely to be competitive, normally with margins greater than 10 points in 2024.

Leaner: Competitive seat in which various fundamentals (such as a GOP-president midterm instead of a Democrat-president midterm) suggest the likely winner, although an upset could change things.

Decisive: In most cases, tight margins expected. Seats expected to align with the majority winner arranged near the tipping point. In other cases, seats like AK-AL (Alaska At-Large) are part of a decisive GOP hand, but not necessarily a decisive Democrat hand.

Seat Rankings

I have divided the remaining 23 seats, all decisive, into three camps. They are evaluated from a Republican lens, and are ranked as bullish, neutral, or bearish:

Bullish - Seats I evaluate to have a strong chance of going Republican in November based on incumbency, previous margin, candidate quality, voter registration/trend, and quality of election laws.

Neutral - Somewhere in between bullish and bearish, with outcomes largely uncertain.

Bearish - Seats I think are likely to be lost, particularly given 2026’s positioning as a GOP-president midterm. These seats, in most cases, have terrible election laws or have found their Republicans barely holding on in much better electoral climates.

Author’s Note: The following sections do not contain final predictions. Seat colors reflect the current incumbent party, and should not be interpreted as a predicted winner.

Bearish Seats

The good news: 5 of 7 Republican-held seats in the bearish category have an incumbent.

The bad news: With the exception of Nebraska, these states have some of the worst elections anywhere in America. Ballots will be counted in California and Washington for weeks - even into December.

CA-22: David Valadao is an incumbent Republican looking to hold on in a newly redrawn district in central California. Democrats took 59.3% of the primary vote. This is a very unlikely GOP hold and could arguably be listed as a Democrat leaner.

CA-48: Jim Desmond is the newly selected GOP nominee for this redrawn seat in Southern California. This will likely be the most competitive seat in California, and Democrats took 54.9% of the primary vote combined.

CO-8: Gabe Evans is seeking a second term as GOP incumbent. He upset his Democrat opponent in 2024 on the back of a massive Trump surge with Latinos in this district that spans three counties north of Denver. Colorado is a Universal Mail-In Voting state and a very slight shift back to the left, in line with voter registration, will flip this seat.

NE-2: Brinker Harding is replacing long-time GOP incumbent Don Bacon in a district Bacon barely held, even in good years. I am getting KS-3 vibes here in an increasingly slippery urban area that was redrawn recently, but not enough.

PA-7: First-term GOP incumbent Ryan Mackenzie defends against Bob Brooks. Mackenzie knocked out an incumbent by 1.0% in 2024 alongside a Trump statewide win. A Josh Shapiro imminent reelection blowout on the back of a serious mail collection campaign is a serious threat to this seat.

PA-10: Scott Perry ranks as one of the most endangered GOP reps in the country. Somehow he managed to nearly squander a comfortable 2022 victory and win his seat by just 1.2% in 2024, alongside Trump’s statewide win (how?). This is an area that has been shifting left by registration, so it seems like a long shot to me and the most likely Democrat flip in the Keystone State.

VA-2: GOP incumbent Jen Kiggans takes on Elaine Luria in a rematch. A flip of the coin from where I stand, perhaps with a little tailwind thanks to the redistricting referendum pissing everyone off. I don’t like the trend of Virginia Beach or the election laws.

WA-3: Polling looks bad for Democrat incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez because she’s not far enough to the left, but if you know Washington State, you’re taking any good GOP polls with a grain of salt. She has a tough GOP opponent in Senate Minority Leader John Braun, but has the mail-in ballot collection apparatus that kept Joe Kent at bay working for her in a Democrat-favorable year.

Neutral Seats

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I had dropped the copy off with one of the President’s aides after I saw him (President Trump) in Florida in May, and I’m very pleased to have received it back with such a nice note that will be passed down someday to my children.

Since the President’s address on election interference Thursday, that book has surged again. Please consider getting a copy of it for yourself, your family, your friends, or your local elected officials:

Buy Book

I didn’t step up for accolades or recognition, however. I jumped into the fray in 2020 because I knew our elections were in a state of despair significant enough to jeopardize our entire national future. I have continued to wield a heavy hammer on elections in the years since, and still get flak from the corruption enablers in the media. Democracy Docket has a particular axe to grind with me:

“All hell is going to break loose with the president’s address Thursday on election interference,” Seth Keshel, a leading anti-voting activist, wrote on social media. “It will compel action and make the pressure to pass the SAVE America Act overwhelming and will mandate change at the highest levels,” Keshel added.

If Marc Elias still thinks I’m worth crapping on, I suppose there’s still gas left in my tank for decrying electile dysfunction, and I remain a worthy adversary of those who wish to subjugate us through the corruption of the voting process. I have remained on point, rarely straying from what I know best. Because we suffered under the rule of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., for four years and are currently swimming upstream against the Murkowskis of the world and never-ending Democrat lawfare, the repairs to our electoral system are taking a long time; long enough, in fact, that the most critical ones are at risk of not happening under the Trump 47 administration.

This means that all of my electoral assessments are made with the corruption of elections accounted for. Remember, the laws of the various states dictate what types of ballot counts and, by extension, candidate performances are possible. I can feel good about Iowa with its strong voting laws in the same election cycle I feel bad about Washington, with its ballot collection free-for-all that is certain to impact the WA-3 decisive seat the GOP candidate is polling well in.

I’ve been directing traffic on the 2026 midterms since the infant days of the Trump 47 administration, which terrifyingly is already three-eighths of the way to completion:

I’ve had to make some changes to the electoral math because of the various redistricting changes impacting 10 states:

• AL, CA, FL, LA, MO, NC, OH, TN, TX, UT

My assessment for those, cumulatively, goes as follows:

• +12 GOP

• +5 DEM

• 3 toss-ups

That makes +7 net for the GOP, pending the outcomes of CA-48, FL-25, and TX-34. It’s safe to say, thanks to the scrapping of the Virginia quasi referendum, that the GOP won the redistricting war - but we all know legislatures in Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina didn’t go far enough or we’d probably already have this year’s race in the bag.

On that note, the winds are blowing early. Normally we don’t get hedging until after Labor Day. I’m referring to the period in which media blowhards come up with something like, “It looks like voters are coming home and sticking with the GOP after all, and perhaps Wyoming isn’t due for a blue tidal wave after all.”

MSM reporters are starting to follow suit as the so-called “generic ballot” tightens:

Right now, the generic ballot sits at D+4.7% (meaning Democrats turn out at a rate 4.7% greater than Republicans):

However, factoring in just the last six polls, all within four points, we see D+3.0%. Like our presidential races, Democrats being packed into blowout districts requires them to find the widespread appeal they lack in order to win the decisive seats. We have never held a midterm under the current boundaries in what is the most tightly gerrymandered national map ever produced, so no one really has any idea how big the Democrats would need to win the House popular vote to pull a bare majority (218 seats). Most people, like Cillizza above, are thinking 3-4 points at minimum. Makes a lot of sense when you look at the reality of it all:

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Trump’s election fraud speech the other night was a pivotal moment in this nation’s history. As more and more election fraud continues to be exposed there’s a question I see few people asking: What if God was trying to clue us in on what was going to happen—and we just didn’t know how to listen?

I’m not a theologian. I’m just a filmmaker. A storyteller looking at current events and the information war through that lens. My soon to released film CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW? --featuring one of the last unseen interviews with Charlie Kirk-- is my own personal journey wrestling through this topic. Find out more about it HERE.

BACK TO THE FUTURE TELLING

Most people are surprised when I tell them one of my earliest memories was watching Reagan win re-election in 1984. I was six. I can still remember my grandparents’ living room—the lowpile olive green carpet, the sweet tobacco smoke from my grandpa’s pipe, the giant tube TV in the corner with the map almost solid blue (Republicans were blue back then. I think to contrast communist Russia red) showing Regan winning every state except Minnesota for a record breaking 525 electoral votes. I was six years old. I knew I was watching history unfold. I was mesmerized. And I’ve been following presidential election cycles ever since.

Another piece of my past that will become relevant is that I grew up in a conservative Christian church environment that accepted prophets and prophetic utterances as commonplace. I accepted this so much that I was shocked when I met other Christians who vehemently believed this was no longer a thing. And frankly that belief system still baffles me. Why wouldn’t He talk to us? If God is a Father—what kind of Father wouldn’t want to speak to and through His kids? I mean, if any of you told your kids that you weren’t going to speak to them and any communication with you was limited to them reading an instruction manual you wrote before they were born— wouldn’t that be SUPER weird and borderline abusive? But I digress.

Back to politics & elections. I also lived through a time when the Christian church realized they had vacated their place at the table of government & politics. This created a revival of sort with Christians in the 1980s-90s trying to claw their way back into the conversation. Being the a prophetic culture this manifested into a prophetic word or two around the time of our 4-year presidential election cycles. Someone would say something like “God wants so and so to be president” or something along those lines. Again, this was normal in my world.

To be honest over time I got pretty jaded about the prophetic community regarding politics. I was bothered by the surface level political understanding most of the people giving words. Like saying you’re a football fan but you only ever watch the Super Bowl. Back then I was known to say that if you want to know who the prophets would pick as “God’s choice” just wait until after the Republican National Convention. It’ll be the one with the “R” after their name.

Then 2016 happened. The number of prophetic words about then candidate Trump was ABNORMAL. Prophet after prophet after prophet came out saying “God’s hand is on Trump.” Again, I was used to this kind of word every four years. That wasn’t what was odd. It was the sheer amount. It seemed like everyone had a word about this. I remember thinking, “This is wild”. And I was not a Trump fan. I was a Ron/Rand Paul guy. A proud Libertarian. I thought Trump was a joke. And I thought everyone was jumping on board simply because he was brandishing the hallowed “R”.

But after Trump won (and honestly, I was glad he did simply because I was scared to death of Hillary) I watched him closely. His governance and decisions made me think “Hmph. Maybe he is the real deal.” The way he weathered opposition and navigated complicated situations with gusto & frankly Solomon like wisdom… after that, I dove all in. Full MAGA. Let’s do this. I even wrote and directed my first documentary THE TRUMP I KNOW during this time.

Then the 2020 election cycle dawned. And if 2016 was a prophetic anomaly—2020 was a prophetic OUTLIER.

It seemed every prophet and their mother was declaring words like “Trump will win bigly”, “Landslide”, “Sail right in”, “Red wave”, “Two terms!” and on and on and on. Again, the sheer amount of these occurrences is what startled me. Many multiples more than 2016. Why was this election different?

And then when the media declared Trump lost many of these people who said they were hearing from God backed off – apologizing for getting it wrong. Because the prophecies didn’t match up with what materialized in reality-- maybe God actually wanted Biden to be president?

But before we answer that question, we need to tell a bible story and then take a brief detour through history. Consider this a little weave as Trump would say. I promise we’ll come back to elections and prophets.

ON AUTHORITY

In the book of Matthew, there’s a story of Jesus and the Roman Centurion (Matthew 8:5-13). Long and short, The Centurion has a young servant who is deathly ill. He comes to Jesus. Jesus stands and offers to come to the Centurion’s home to heal the boy— a remarkable offer because this was ethnically taboo. Jews at that time were not permitted to enter the homes of Gentiles. The Roman stops him and says:

“Lord, I am not worthy to have you come under my roof, but only say the word, and my servant will be healed. For I too am a man under authority, with soldiers under me. And I say to one, ‘Go,’ and he goes, and to another, ‘Come,’ and he comes, and to my servant, ‘Do this,’ and he does it.”

Jesus is blown away. He says he has never seen such faith in all of Israel. He tells the soldier, “Go; let it be done for you as you have believed.”

And that moment the servant was healed. It’s an incredible story. However, what stands out to me here aren’t the points most pastors would highlight. What stands out to me is that Jesus equated faith with the centurion’s understanding of authority. Authority is a big deal in heaven.

Okay now keep that in mind as we continue our weave through history. The fundamental question our American founders were dealing with prior to the Revolution was “is the authority of a nation vested solely on a king and his lineage? Or is it vested in the people?” The first three words of our Constitution make it obvious that they chose the latter. Here’s a clip from my documentary where historian William Federer explains:

We the People are collectively king of this country. Our founders created a compact, a contract, a covenant before God with the world as witness. Contractually, in our country, authority flows from the people.

Did the American people choose Biden? Did we choose Obama, Bush, Clinton? Did the people choose Trump? Did the people of your state/county/city choose those who claim the title of mayor/council member/governor/senator/representative?

Right now—we don’t know. And based on the information being produced regarding our broken election system, the following question must be asked: how long have we been manipulated to believe our authority has been vested in people we didn’t actually appoint as our representatives?

God knows who won. This is one of the reasons why I believe we are still standing as a nation. I believe our people have been by and large making righteous choices. Remember: the 2020 election wasn’t stolen from Trump. It was stolen from us. We are the ones with the authority. God did not legitimately recognize the person the powers-that-be propped up (literally). God knew we were cheated. And God’s hand of mercy protected us because He “performs deeds of vindication for all who are oppressed” (Ps 103).

VIEW FROM 40,000 FEET

Okay—back to prophets. Based on the information now pouring out-- turns out they were right all along. Trump did win in 2020. But why did they back off amid the confusion? I believe it’s because we’ve reduced prophecy to a parlor trick and lost the true purpose of the prophet—to provide direction. Especially when it’s hard to see clearly.

I once heard a pastor say if God gives you a word once the chances are it’ll be an easier journey. However, if He tells you something multiple times its usually means—as a good Father-- He’s providing extra encouragement because He knows it’s going to be a challenge to get there.

Based on this thought, the sheer glut of words heaped on President Trump & the 2020 election should alone have signaled this was going to be an uphill battle. Here’s another clip from my upcoming film to illustrate:

There you have it. Prophecy is not determined by what we currently see and often flies in the face of what we think is “real”. And anyone who has become aware of the tactic of information warfare understands this. This is why we need prophets and why they are attacked so mercilessly. We need them to pick up on things beyond the narrative our enemies are trying to sell us. Those with vested interest craft realities with the goal of manipulating your belief system and stealing your authority. What we are told and what the truth actually is-- are very often two different things.

I pray that this exposure of election fraud is healing for the prophetic community. I pray that those who humbled themselves enough to apologize for saying Trump would win will be humble enough to recognize they recanted when we needed them most. And I pray that we will all forgive them and welcome them back into our good graces with open arms. In Ephesians chapter four, Paul claims prophets are a gift given to us by King Jesus himself. He knew we would need them to help perceive the path forward as we fight to spread the knowledge of His glory across the earth.

We are living through extraordinary times, my friends. Many thanks to my friend, Captain K, for giving me the opportunity to share my thoughts with y’all. For more of these types of ramblings, please subscribe to my Substack & check out my newest film CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW?premiering on SALEMNOW on 9.10.26.

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All five points of the speech unfolded exactly as we were told they would. Here they are:

• Proof of foreign tampering within election infrastructure (primarily China, but other nations included) dating back to 2018 and impacting the 2020 presidential election

• Intelligence community concealed the breach(es) from President Trump’s first administration

• Proof that electronic voting systems can be manipulated, Venezuela named

• Identification of registration fraud, focused on Michigan, occurring in the 2020 election (also concealed for years)

• Proof of non-citizens on voter rolls (over 278,000 in a small sliver)

I wrote in Wednesday’s article that I expected the address to fall within four categories (including within multiple categories):

• A total “nothingburger”

• Announcement of emergency measures

• Pressure for the SAVE America Act

• Decimation of all 2020 (and associated) media narratives

Now, with the address behind us, here is my evaluation and diagnosis:

So far, I’d grade it a C.

Dead average. The good news here is that the test may take place in multiple parts, thereby affording opportunity for higher marks. When I say I straddle two universes, I would explain that in these two ways:

• Election integrity minds are underwhelmed and asking “Great, but now what?”

• “Normies” are thrilled and in awe of the new revelations

Take a look around the online space. To me, there is no consolation in having people say, “You were right!” I’ve known for almost six years that the 2020 presidential election was rigged in a way that would make Boss Tweed blush, and gave enough proof in The American War on Election Corruption that the media won’t touch it. It’s been obvious to me as long as I’ve been a watchman on the wall.

Yet there are people ranting and raving about the declassification (in a good way). Brian Cates is one who never takes his eye off the ball, and he’s been positive. Just now, as I write today’s article, here is Cleta Mitchell with some positive news:

That would satisfy “emergency measures,” the second bullet listed above for courses of action.

Summary of Facts

1. The announcement is not a “nothingburger.” Far from it. While it confirmed what a lot of people familiar with the elections crisis in America already knew or suspected, it’s important that it is recognized at the highest levels of government.

2. We did not get “emergency measures” announced from the President like we wanted. How this pans out rests on the subordinate agencies in the coming days and weeks. Grade to be determined.

3. The SAVE America Act was harped on with tremendous effort. I think we are well past the point of “calling our Senators” to get this across. They know it must be passed yet keep finding every excuse. This seems like a “box check” from President Trump.

4. Indeed, the official government narrative now records massive vulnerabilities and opportunities to rig our elections. We have reached terminal velocity now with how many minds can change on the issue, meaning only one thing.

The time to act is RIGHT NOW.

There must be accountability for those who have jeopardized our elections and those who concealed knowledge of the vulnerabilities from the President. We cannot simply continue to “expose” every issue. We know, and the hour is late. Let it be known I am not jumping the gun and throwing in the towel; how the address of July 16, 2026, will be remembered falls directly on the steps directly taken by those with the emergency authority to act to craft an entirely new system that eliminates opportunities to defraud the electorate, and what efforts are taken by the Senate and state legislatures to create a voting system that cuts down on mail and registration fraud.

So far, the address gets a C. It was a necessary box-check for the normies and to establish the new standard. It did not go far enough, in my opinion, in using the power of the executive with a mandate for change in proposing and implementing necessary changes in light of massive cheating covering many vectors of corruption.

But that may change beginning today, and so might the grade. The election corruption is fully exposed. The next phase of action must now occur in short order.

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

To my wonderful subscribers here, please understand I have no choice but to keep things at surface level today. Friday, should there be no change in plans in scheduling or plan (delayed speech, etc.), you can expect a full review of exactly what is made known to the public, with no obligation for me to continue to be cagey. As such, this article is shorter than most; still, given the subject matter, it is of vital national importance.

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President Trump’s address tomorrow, assuming it provides evidence of catastrophic breaches, vulnerabilities, or interference pertaining to our election infrastructure, stands to bring out any combination of four outcomes:

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Before I get further into what it is I’d like to discuss today, the timeline of American political life has always fascinated me. Just as I find it fascinating that President John Tyler (our tenth president!) had grandchildren who lived well into the 21st century, I find it fascinating that Graham’s seat, which he held since 2003, had only been held by one other man since 1956. That man was the notorious Strom Thurmond, who switched his party affiliation to Republican from Democrat in 1964, the year of the Goldwater revolution (and a terrible national landslide for Lyndon Johnson).

Suffice it to say that Graham had been a Washington, D.C., fixture for a long time. Even longer when we consider his time in the U.S. House. Whether you liked Graham or not, this is a big deal, just as it will be a big deal when Mitch McConnell vacates his seat in the near future. The MAGA coalition is made up of the most ideologically diverse Republican group ever assembled. It includes the following:

• Old Guard Republicans (“Reaganites”)

• Neoconservatives (dwindling)

• Evangelicals/Social Conservatives

• Trade populists

• Reformed libertarians

• Other loosely aligned groups committed to outsiders like Trump only

This naturally means these factions are in constant competition (and conflict) with one another, and younger members of the alliance who don’t bolt for the doors struggle to reconcile their views with that of the old world - which Graham belonged to. Graham, as we all know, was very hawkish and came into conflict with President Trump over his views of foreign policy. He was also soft on illegal immigration and was an early critic of Trump’s heavy-handed proposals; yet he remained someone the President valued until his last breath.

I’m here to tell it like it is. It doesn’t mean you have to like it, and it most certainly doesn’t mean I even agree with the President, or anyone else’s, view of the entire matter - but let me help you understand why Trump looked past his differences with Graham and why there are now many unresolved issues related to his unexpected passing:

I. Obstacle or Not?

Every time there is a Supreme Court pick awaiting confirmation, or there is a life-or-death issue like the SAVE America Act up for a vote, every patriot in the world starts counting on their fingers:

• Murkowski

• Collins

• McConnell

• Curtis

• Tillis

• Plenty of Senate alumni such as Flake, Romney, Alexander, Cornyn and any other squishes looking to appease everyone

All of a sudden, that 53-seat majority doesn’t sound so great. We need 75 senators to get around the drama, back-stabbing, and uniparty scamming going on in Washington. One of my favorite subscribers brought up his grievances with Graham yesterday related to January 6, and his points are valid. Graham was very harsh over January 6 and critical of Trump, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he regrets going as far as he did.

Yet…when is the last time you remember counting Graham in that group you just knew would be parroting sexual assault claims against a judicial nominee or ignoring the fact that a bill has 75/25 support because it was intended to fix a nationally known crisis? That’s right.

Trump values loyalty.

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Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net Shift Since June: R+13,479

• Good news for Democrats - they had a healthy gain in registrations for the first time in recent memory. Now, the bad news - they still got passed up by a factor of 2.2 to 1 by the Republicans as both parties surged ahead of the upcoming primary. There is no way to describe what is happening to Democrats in the Sunshine State because there is no comparison to this anywhere else in the country - it is a Republican onslaught month after month and people need to start moving to coastal Georgia or the hills north of Atlanta.

• Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

• Races to watch: FL-14 (leaner), FL-22 (leaner), FL-25 (decisive)

IOWA

Net Shift Since June: D+10,005

• Yep, read that one again. Last month showed the first real gain for Democrats since I’ve been tracking these numbers, and this month brought a huge one, dropping the GOP lead from R+10.8% to R+10.2%. However, this jump is far too drastic to be anything but directly related to the recently concluded primary and should begin to taper back to reality. For comparison’s sake, the GOP gained 17,238 last month and still fell this far behind because independents showed up to pick a party (-33,983 for independents). Democrat energy in a midterm provided the difference.

• Iowa is worth tracking because it has a valid correlation to the shifts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which cannot be precisely tracked by party registration. Furthermore, Iowa has two extremely competitive House seats that must be watched closely.

• Races to watch: IA-1 (decisive), IA-3 (decisive), U.S. Senate, Governor

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since June: D+6,962 Total, R+2,197 Active

• The best news out of the Keystone State in months. With primaries concluded, Republicans made up 2,197 net in the active voter roll. Don’t ask me why there is such a disparity in the overall voter roll (Democrat gain) and the active roll, but I’m tracking both just to keep reconciling these figures.

• Republicans made net gains in 20 of 67 counties since before the primaries started, including in the all-important blue collar bellwethers of Erie and Northampton Counties. There does not appear to be a major realignment back toward Democrats underway despite recent Democrat gains, as most gains were concentrated in heavily urban areas.

• Races to watch: PA-1 (leaner), PA-7 (decisive), PA-8 (decisive), PA-10 (decisive)

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since June: D+482 Total, D+2,206 Active

• Rough month for North Carolina Republicans, but early July updates suggest they’re inching back to gains. Democrats gained 2,206 net on the active roll, but have still fallen far behind where they were in the November 2024 election, when Trump won by 3.2%.

• With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

• Races to watch: NC-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since June: No Update

• New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.

• The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election.

• Races to watch: NH-1 (leaner), U.S. Senate

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since June: No Update

• I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses - which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips. I had expected Secretary of State Fontes to publish party registration figures by now, but will have to wait until August to analyze them in this monthly release.

• Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here - not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.

• Races to watch: AZ-1 (decisive), AZ-6 (decisive), all statewide offices

NEVADA

Net Shift Since June: D+4,111

• Democrats have narrowly flipped the party registration lead back from Republicans in what has been a back-and-forth power grab multiple times since the 2024 election. Republicans actually had a nice month, but Clark County carried Democrats to a net pickup of 4,111. The state sits a half-point right of its registration index from when Trump carried the state by 3.1%.

• Races to watch: NV-3 (leaner), all statewide offices

Seth Keshel, MBA, a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran, is the author of The American War on Election Corruption. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.

_{Captain K’s Corner is a Polymarket partner newsletter.}

• A sovereign nation requires sovereign borders and immigration policy that benefits citizens

• A functioning and self-reliant nation does not give away its industries to other nations (trade policy)

• A healthy nation does not beat itself into oblivion by serving as the world’s police and security force

• A just nation practices harsh anti-corruption measures against domestic actors, including moving to ensure free, fair, and transparent elections

The two most perilous predicaments for our country, based on my list of four guidelines above are most certainly uncontrolled immigration and corrupt elections. The immigration (both legal and illegal) provides the fuel for the corrupt elections by making it easier for anti-American candidates to win. After all, there is enough risk and hard work involved in rigging a competitive election. Import a Third World electorate and reduce the share of white, tax-paying Americans, and you have a much easier mission. Stealing an election in California is no longer difficult in most places given the overwhelming demographic change. Remember, demographics include more than race, skin color, and ethnicity:

Lame-brained leftist commenters generally believe that demographics refers only to color of skin. This is why they’ve been obsessed with Texas for decades and focused on the non-Hispanic white number in each passing census.

They are wrong, because the definition is “the quantifiable statistics of a given population.” Vermont has a population that is over 90% white, yet is a thirty-point blue state when it comes to presidential baselines. They have great racial demographics for Republicans, but terrible socioeconomic and ideological ones. Republicans face not only terrible racial demographics in Georgia, with a nearly non-existent Latino population (which should trend right heavily in coming decades), a nearly 30% black population, and what is now a suburban metro Atlanta area that is rapidly trending left.

Executive Action and Judicial Activism

I get frustrated with online commenters on platforms like X when they focus only on negativity, dwell on setbacks, and act as if the Trump 47 administration is incompetent or owned by outside entities. They irritate me because they primarily know how to drive the outrage cycle (in full bloom with the Tyler Robinson trial ongoing) and also because they selectively scrutinize every action through an inaccurate lens. Pursuant to my two key points - immigration and elections - the administration has left practically no stone unturned in seeking the most drastic impacts possible.

At last year’s Freedom Caucus summit in Dallas, which I attended with Rachel, Tom Homan made a comment along the lines of:

If you are happy with the deportation numbers, wait until 2026 and 2027. They’ll make this year (2025) look like child’s play.

Now we have a new DHS Secretary quietly deporting as many as 3,200 per day. Last year, figures were indicating self-deportations were coming in three times higher than deportations. Deport one guy, three family members leave. Now, that number will slow as lone wolves are deported and the rest hunker down and try to wait out the administration, but imagine math like this.

3,200 deportations per day + 9,600 self-deportations per day = 12,800 removals per day

Times seven days in a week…

89,600

Times 52 weeks…

4,659,200

Times 2.5 years…

11,648,000

Now, let me calm everyone. That pace is not sustainable for the reasons mentioned above; however, the One Big Beautiful Bill (which online know-it-alls decried) massively funded the immigration enforcement operation, so I think they’ll be able to process even more than 3,200 deportations per day if the administration sticks to the goal.

Right now, the street raids are gone and with it, the optics motivating white liberals to jump in front of law enforcement officials and rally confused suburban moderates to vote against something this country desperately needs.

Clearly, the administration is serious about cleaning up the problem of illegal invasion and as evidenced by the President’s attempt to end birthright citizenship - legal invasion as well.

Had Trump succeeded in getting that past Amy Coney Barrett, we’d be building statues of him right now. And then we have the issue of fair elections, which have really been resisted by Congress and the courts. Here’s Trump’s first executive order on elections:

Now here is the breakdown of his attempt to rein in cheat-by-mail, which coincided perfectly with the California primary disaster:

All of these have been successfully resisted and tied up in court, and I don’t need to elaborate on the Senate’s refusal to pass a simple bill with 75/25 (at minimum) support to simply begin the process of righting the ship of election corruption and, most critically, the lack of public confidence in said institution. The point here is that President Trump has clearly not thrown in the towel on giving Americans a system of elections that can be trusted and one that resembles elections held in almost every other nation. We aren’t asking for much, after all.

So today we woke up to the news that he canned two Democrat members of the “bipartisan” Election Assistance Commission:

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What they saw in Graham Platner was a rugged military veteran who is an oyster farmer (actually, gives oysters to his mother’s restaurant as a hobby) with natural ties to the state’s working-class population. He would provide the necessary boost in this magnificent sliver of a 2026 midterm to finally oust the only Republican in all of Congress. What they actually got was something much different:

• An actual Nazi with a Totenkopf tattoo (hence “Oystergruppenführer)

• Self-described “communist” positions

• Hatred for all law enforcement and mockery of wounded soldiers

• No real job

• Bizarre online behavior and description of his personal behaviors

• Past with women that would make Bill Clinton blush

The timing of Monday’s article couldn’t have been better:

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Monday is also when the latest Platner allegations and horror stories dropped, and they were along the lines of everything that came out against Eric Swalwell ahead of California primary when the Democrat machine needed to get rid of a candidate seen as a threat to the brand. In the case of Maine, it’s Platner’s inevitable loss to Susan Collins forcing the party to Biden him after he just won their primary last month. You can see, even in rigged polling, that Platner’s lead is gone:

Last month, I did the math on why Collins is on pace for a victory against Platner based on how she does against polling and voter registration historically:

Before I go any further, I must be honest. The tactics being used by the Democrats to push Platner out the door give me cause for concern. Based on what I know about this guy, and what many people have corroborated, I suspect the allegations against him are true, or mostly true. The trouble here is that we are getting to the point in which anyone can make an allegation against any candidate and that candidate will be pressured to drop out. Remember when we were one Jeff Flake decision away, during the Kavanaugh hearing, from having every male in this country potentially branded a sexual abuser just because someone said so?

Anyway, it’s high noon for Democrats in Maine and they have until Monday, July 13, to replace him if he withdraws. Unfortunately for Maine Democrats, who attempted to lay down the law yesterday, Platner holds the cards. As of this morning, there is talk on the street that Platner is negotiating his exit, but nothing concrete.

Here are the three main takeaways of Platner-gate (the efforts to remove Platner as Senate nominee):

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