2024: The Arizona Files
Topic: 2024 Election Materials
Arizona, worth 11 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in Arizona, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 11
Population (2020 Census): 7,151,502 (+759,485 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 7,500,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 3 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 53.4%
Latino: 30.7%
Black: 4.4%
Other: 11.5%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 16
Last: Donald Trump, 2016, +3.6%
Times Democrat: 7
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +0.3%
Party Registration Data
· Statewide
2020 Election: R+3.0% (+130,454 Republican registration lead)
7/30/2024: R+6.3% (+259,270 Republican registration lead)
Presidential Election Characteristics
· Arizona was the most loyal Republican presidential state in the second half of the 20th century, backing every GOP nominee from 1952 through 2016 except Bob Dole in 1996, who was dragged out of the top spot by Ross Perot, who almost cost George H.W. Bush the state in 1992.
· Arizona is the only state to never back a Democrat between 1952 and 1992; Maricopa County, the dominant voting center, backed every · Republican from 1952 through 2016 including Dole.
· Republican strength has traditionally been suburban and centered on Maricopa County, while former Democrat counties, such as Pinal, are now trending heavily Republican. Donald Trump’s gains in both Maricopa County and statewide were all time Republican single cycle growth records, making his dubious loss even more unbelievable.
2024 Forecasts
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +0.3% (10,457 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +11.6% (351,696 votes in margin)
Video overview of Arizona’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Maricopa County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Pima County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Pinal County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Yavapai County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
A Captain’s Testimony Before the Arizona Senate
The Minnesota Miracle Meets Arizona Stockholm Syndrome
Arizona’s Voter Registration, Census Results, and 2020 Numbers Don’t Reconcile
Maricopa County Overshadows Massive Election Corruption in Southern Arizona
“The Party of the People” Vanquished the Native American Vote in 2020 to Stop Trump
Stop Talking in Terms of Nailbiters - Inside the Maricopa Landslide
In context of ballot fraud; Is generating voter ballots is that done by census counting? Or other sources?