2024: The Pennsylvania Files
Topic: 2024 Election Materials
Pennsylvania, worth 19 electoral votes, has been designated a decisive state for the November election.
This entry will be constantly updated and serve as a home page for background information, data, research, analysis, articles, and other information relevant to the forthcoming presidential election in Pennsylvania, likely to be between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Bookmark it to keep track of any updates.
Facts and Figures
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 19
Population (2020 Census): 13,002,700 (+300,321 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 12,950,000
Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 8 Republicans, 9 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 73.4%
Latino: 8.1%
Black: 10.5%
Other: 8.0%
Presidential History Since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: Donald Trump, 2016, +0.7%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +1.2%
Party Registration Data
· Statewide
2020 Election: D+7.5% (+685,818 Democrat registration lead)
7/29/2024: D+4.1% (+359,555 Democrat registration lead)
Presidential Election Characteristics
· Pennsylvania backed 7 out of 11 Republican presidential nominees between 1948 and 1988, but went on a six-election streak for Democrat nominees beginning in 1992 thanks in large part to disparate trade deals negatively impacting the working class and driving them toward Democrats.
· The Keystone State has undergone two coalition shifts, with the formerly Republican southeast, including the Philadelphia suburbs, moving heavily left, and the formerly working-class Democrat region of western Pennsylvania becoming heavily Republican.
· The state has become ten points more Republican by registration than it was in 2008, when Barack Obama won the largest margin in the state since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 national landslide. Pennsylvania’s 2020 election was one of the most corrupt in the country, taking days to undo a large Trump lead and call not only the state, but the election, for Joe Biden.
2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +1.2% (80,555 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +6.4% (413,892 votes in margin)
Video overview of Pennsylvania’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Philadelphia County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Allegheny County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Video overview of Montgomery County’s 2020 Presidential Election
Literature
The Keshel Method, Explained - Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania
Three “Yuge” Reasons Why Pennsylvania’s Absentee Ballot Date Requirement Matters
Why Pennsylvania’s Push for Automatic Voter Registration is Standard Democrat Playbook
A Captain’s Reply to a Clueless GOP Chairman
What Happens To Philadelphia When Ballot Harvesting Goes Mainstream?
Let Me Show You How I Know Where the Ballot Trafficking Occurs