2025: End of Year Predictions Scorecard
Putting a final evaluation on my 1/1/25 predictions at the end of a volatile year
Author’s Note: My third article of the week will run tomorrow, January 1, to keep the annual predictions post on New Year’s Day.
It has become a tradition to formally evaluate all of my predictions made on New Year’s Day of a given year. Last year, I nailed 7 of 10 predictions:
Following my most successful year of predictions yet is a tall task, but this newsletter is about transparency and actionable information, so I answered the bell with my Ten Bold Predictions for 2025, which you should familiarize yourself with before proceeding into my self-assessment of how those predictions shaped up:
Ten Bold Predictions for 2025
In what has been an annual exercise in forecasting accountability, which is much needed for many prominent prognosticators, it is now time for me to roll out my Ten Bold Predictions for 2025.
Let’s get this party started.
I. Donald Trump will Assume the Presidency at Noon on January 20, 2025
Serious people were concerned President Trump would never be sworn in, which has happened every single time, on time, for every president ever elected. I was going with the chalk pick here and figured if Trump didn’t take the oath on time thanks to the actions of those who have hamstrung him every step of the way for a decade, then we had more problems than just a thwarted inauguration.
The ceremony had to be removed indoors, and Rachel and I watched from our hotel in Alexandria. The speech was worth it.
This is a direct hit.
II. Shapiro and Whitmer Will Position Themselves as the Top Democrat Standard Bearers
I maintain my position that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and California Governor Gavin Newsom are the top three horses in the Democrat primary race for 2028. Newsom has all but declared his candidacy, and Whitmer is positioning herself to make the jump as soon as her time is up one year from now, and stumbling out of the gate:
Why Whitmer Played Wallflower in Trump's Reality Show
I remember an evening in early 2019, one year into my traffic control technology sales career and nearly two years before the 2020 election changed the course of my life, in which I was being honored as one of the top salesmen in my company. I had exceeded my quota in my rookie year by nearly 40% and had a penchant for bringing in
Newsom wants the presidency, and will have to explain why millions of people have left California under his rule in the first sustained population loss since the turn of the 20th century. Shapiro will need to pull a “DeSantis” - get reelected and immediately turn around and make the case for why it is of national importance that he jump to the presidency right away. Whitmer looks great on paper - woman from a Midwestern state with two terms as governor - but will be yanked by the hard left to play “look at me, I’m a woman” identity politics that will piss off minority men.
Had I fashioned this prediction around Newsom, it would be a direct hit. He has played an active role in positioning himself for the presidency. Whitmer, by not declaring for an open U.S. Senate seat in the upcoming midterms while being termed out, has passively signaled her intent to run for president in 2028. Shapiro is the least engaged of these three to this point - but I suspect it will change when the line becomes “I’m the only candidate on this stage that can carry our most important battleground state.”
A partial hit.
III. Wokeism Isn’t Going Back to Bed
A political coroner, in examining the corpse of the Democrat Party after the 2024 election, would note the loss of the presidency (with popular vote this time), the failure to flip the U.S. House or U.S. Senate, and all 50 states moving in a Republican direction with major minority defections, and tell the puppet masters running the left wing of the American political con job, “Move your party in a direction that backs the American worker and doesn’t sound crazy to everyone outside of Berkeley.”
Did that happen? Of course not. Mayor Pete does an interview here or there and talks tough, but the inability and unwillingness of a single prominent Democrat to hammer the Somali fraud problem shows their key players are terrified of stepping out of line with the DEI-obsessed central control apparatus of the American left.
Complaining brat and American nuisance David Hogg, who should satisfy most Democrat standards by being unable to bench press the bar, is “too white” to lead the party according to many key personnel, and of course we have the great example of the largest city in the country, disregarded by the GOP for a century, electing Zohran Mamdani as Mayor. The insistence on “weird and woke” is a major driver of sustained Republican voter registration gains, when in most political cycles, the party out of power should be regaining steam.
This is a direct hit.
IV. Peace Will Break Out
