2026 File: Democrats Receive Early Christmas Gift in Utah + Crockett’s Hedging

Looking to the horizon of what promises to be a chaotic year

Even though the government shutdown is nearing an end, the political world will slow down very shortly for Thanksgiving and Christmas as we transition into 2026. If you’ve been sitting on X doomscrolling, that interlude will be the best time to take a breather, enjoy family and friends, and make your mind right, because if you remain interested in the national political discourse, next year is going to be much more manipulative than this one has been. As soon as we come out of the holidays, primaries will be just around the corner. The first ones take place on March 3 (full schedule here), and once we have an idea who the candidates will be, it will be easier to assess the terrain of the House and Senate races.

I currently believe the Republicans will hold the Senate majority, and must be most attentive to the races to hold those seats in Maine and North Carolina. It is a tough map for the Democrats, and even if there is a pro-Democrat shift in the House like we saw in 2018, precedent exists from the same year that Republicans can still hold the Senate and do well in various gubernatorial races, such as the one in Arizona that gives us a chance to get rid of Katie Hobbs.

As I successfully did in 2024, I plan to stage out predictions and forecasting data as I feel confident in my analysis of the political battlefield. This is subject to change if I am retained by anyone up the chain for work that would limit what I can make available here, but I have every intention of giving you a realistic picture of what to expect next November so we can avoid the frantic gnashing of teeth that has painted one corner of the Internet to the other since last Tuesday.

This week gives us two notable pieces of news that will directly impact the 2026 races. One is unmistakably terrible news, and the other is a context clue that flies in the face of much sentiment present over the duration of the shutdown.

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Utah Disappoints - Again

I plan to contact an attorney today to stipulate that when I die, my casket can be carried by six Utah Republicans. That way, they can let me down one last time. Judge Dianna Gibson, appointed by Republican Governor Gary Herbert in 2018, handed over Utah’s 1st Congressional District (UT-1) to the Democrats. Her ruling in favor of the plaintiffs in the case - the League of Women Voters of Utah and Mormon Women for Ethical Government - tossed out the map proposed by the Utah legislature and adopted one that carved the new boundaries of UT-1 into a parcel won by Kamala Harris with a 24% margin of victory. The new map is below and on the right: