2026 U.S. Senate Overview (June 2025)
All 35 races ranked and categorized, from the “conspiracy theorist” who got all 56 Electoral College races right on the money.
On most of my Substack live briefings, I receive questions about the Republican House and Senate majorities, and how likely it is for the GOP to hold or expand said majorities in either chamber in November 2026. I issued a brief primer of the 2026 midterms in February, and here, 17 months out, am going to give you the lay of the land for the U.S. Senate, which is much easier to predict and essential for ensuring no Democrat impeachment proceedings amount to a hill of beans if in fact they take the House, which history gives them a great shot at doing.
There are 35 seats up for grabs, shown above. The GOP must defend 22, while the Democrats only need to cover for 13. This is how I see things shaking out for the GOP-held seats next November:
REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS
Group A – Senators Leaving (2)
Alabama (Tuberville) – There will be no Roy Moore scenario at play here, and the GOP will win this seat without serious campaigning by high double digits. Tuberville is leaving to run for Governor, and as an Ole Miss grad, it’s nice to see no “pine box” comment here (look it up).
Kentucky (McConnell) – Finally. It’s important to nominate a Republican candidate with a MAGA bent, who will go on to win in the General Election by high double digits. This state is fool’s gold for Democrats in federal races, but it won’t stop them from going after it thanks to their gubernatorial win in 2023.
Group B – Safe Incumbents (18)
Alaska (Sullivan) – Some of the talking heads have this one in jeopardy, but I don’t see it as likely. Ranked Choice Voting is a threat to the GOP here, but Sullivan ran a point ahead of Trump in 2020, and Trump just blew Alaska out of the water.
Arkansas (Cotton) – Nuclear obliteration margins.
Florida (Moody) – Moody has never run for this seat, but Florida’s increasing GOP voter registration advantage and status as a MAGA icon state will give her this race comfortably.
Idaho (Risch) – Race will be called the moment polls close.
Iowa (Ernst) – Ernst is running for a third time and knows to get close to Trump when she needs him; race won’t approach Trump margins (13.2%), but the GOP voter registration advantage is becoming too much for Iowa Democrats to contend with.
Kansas (Marshall) – Kansas plays ball with Democrats at the state level, but the federal races are a different ballgame.
Louisiana (Cassidy) – As is the case with Alabama, Democrats have no shot in the Deep South (except for in Georgia).
Mississippi (Hyde-Smith) – See Alabama and Louisiana.
Montana (Daines) – Daines will take his opponent to the “train station” early riding Trump’s popularity in Montana.
Nebraska (Ricketts) – Former Nebraska governor will have no trouble punching his ticket for another six years.
Ohio (Husted) – Ohio has gone from a Trump state that still elects people like Sherrod Brown, to a hardcore GOP state turning into Indiana. See election of Senator Moreno last fall for confirmation. Husted will win somewhat comfortably, although he hasn’t run for this seat before, because Democrats have lost their white working-class base in the Industrial Midwest.
Oklahoma (Mullin) – Not sure why the Democrats are even going to run a candidate.
South Carolina (Graham) – Graham has a decent shot of getting primaried, but he knows how to survive. Whoever makes it to the General Election is going to win comfortably because South Carolina is a premier destination for conservative refugees from the northeast.
South Dakota (Rounds) – Like shooting fish in a barrel.
Tennessee (Hagerty) – Tennessee is one of the most conservative, right-wing bastions in America with everything outside of Nashville and Memphis set to consume Democrats.
Texas (Cornyn/Paxton) – I think Attorney General Paxton will defeat Cornyn and go on to win big in November. Paxton won reelection by 9.7% in November, six points right of his 2018 win, so any talk of him being unelectable is not based in reality.
West Virginia (Capito) – Please, Democrats, go spend money in West Virginia because you think you can find another Joe Manchin.
Wyoming (Lummis) – If Democrats win this seat, I’ll turn this platform into the world’s largest Taylor Swift newsletter.
Group C – Thin Ice (2)
Maine (Collins) – I used to dislike the narrative that Collins is the only Republican that can win this seat, so she shouldn’t be replaced in a primary despite her erratic voting patterns. Now that I’ve watched the last four federal elections, I tend to agree. She splits the ivory tower college vote, the one that wants to come across as fair and high-minded for technically voting for at least one Republican and takes advantage of the reddening of Northern Maine to get by. The constant influx of Massachusetts refugees seeking a better tax picture keeps the southern portion of the state blue, and this is exactly why I knew Maine wouldn’t give its statewide electors to Trump in 2024. Replacing Collins in a primary means certain defeat. I don’t like to strategize like this, and if Collins were from Wyoming, I’d say run her off – but this must be carefully considered. You can expect a full-length piece on the Maine race soon.
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