A Captain's 2020 Election Postlude
Topic: Elections
On August 22, 2021, at a rally in Cullman, Alabama, President Donald Trump commended my work in identifying what I call “excess votes” favoring Joe Biden thanks to the sudden worthlessness of, in many cases, more than a century’s worth of trends, indicators, bellwethers, and predictors. A few weeks before, Trump had made a nearly identical announcement, but in written form.
It is an honor to be acknowledged by such an incredible leader, but I didn’t show up for accolades. I showed up to fix what is absolutely an existential crisis for this Constitutional Republic, one that will lead to the downfall of the nation in short order if not remedied. President Trump was referencing my initial estimate of 8.1 million “excess Biden votes,” estimated by analyzing political trends, coalition shifts, voter registration (by party where available), population change, and historical precedent. That analysis gave Trump a narrow win in the popular vote and pointed to wins in the six contested states and Minnesota.
In the interest of time, with the Arizona audit moving ahead full-steam, I focused on counties with populations over 40,000, and did not dive into smaller ones except only to determine if they moved in the anticipated trend direction. As I dug further into precinct analysis, it became obvious to me that many of the 40,000-or-below population counties were also carrying excess votes, likely the result of electronic manipulation and ballot harvesting.
This analysis was critical for highlighting what is likely the most accurate picture of the 2020 election yet, and I combined it with a do-over of my analysis of the larger counties as well. It still reflects a 322-216 electoral college win for Trump as shown above, but the popular vote total changes are dramatic and point to major malfeasance in wide swaths of the country not previously suspected.
Here is the summary of my thorough analysis of 3,143 county equivalents in the United States.
States won by Trump not certified for Trump:
Minnesota (+0.7%)
Pennsylvania (+6.4%)
Georgia (+7.5%)
Wisconsin (+7.8%)
Michigan (+8.5%)
Nevada (+8.8%)
Arizona (+11.5%)
Popular Vote:
Trump – 74,216,154 (50.8%)
Biden – 68,910,537 (47.2%)
Biden has 12,358,387 more votes certified than analytics suggest are probable, even in generous estimates typically applying record Democrat gains in growing counties, even in the case of strong Republican growth. Several perpetually “blue” states are surprisingly close on account of Trump’s gains in them, notably Hawai’i, Oregon, Washington, and New Jersey.
Fewest Excess Votes by State – Top 5:
North Dakota – 7,719
Wyoming – 14,166
South Dakota – 27,728
Alaska – 29,175
Mississippi – 32,952
Top 5 Cleanest States by Excess Votes per Elector:
North Dakota – 2,573
Wyoming – 4,722
Louisiana – 5,200
Mississippi – 5,492
Arkansas – 6,188
Most Excess Votes by State – Top 5:
California – 1,959,634
Texas – 840,067
New York – 635,844
Washington – 590,112
Michigan – 576,083
Top 5 Dirtiest States by Excess Votes per Elector:
Washington – 49,176
Hawai’i – 37,033
Oregon – 37,029
Michigan – 36,005
New Jersey – 35,944
Top 5 Trump States:
Wyoming (+51.1%)
West Virginia (+49.2%)
Idaho (+46.4%)
Oklahoma (+39.1%)
Utah (+38.6%)
Top 5 Biden States:
Massachusetts (+29.1%)
Maryland (+28.6%)
Vermont (+24.6%)
California (+20.2%)
New York (+17.0%)
In a fair 2020 election, only four states produce a larger Democrat margin than they did in 2016. They are Colorado, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts. 46 states plus Washington, D.C., move to the right for Trump in his re-election bid.
Why does this matter? This is your point of reference for what began in 2018, was noticed in 2020, and then perpetuated itself in 2022. Presidential forecasting based on time-honored means of understanding voter registration and voter behavior trends are now burned as if they were impassable bridges thanks to the 2020 disaster. The only way to get them back is to press for the major reforms presented in the Ten Points to True Election Integrity and keep the pressure on local officials to provide transparency in elections.
The courts have failed.
The elected officials have failed.
Many candidates who have been cheated have also failed by conceding illegitimate races.
We must not fail.
Your work shows and represents such a tremendous amount of work and time. Thanks, does not do it much service. But appreciation is still what we want to express here. Your focus inspires!
Listening to your testimony at the Arizona State Legislature Election integrity hearing last Thursday was again, so captivating to listen to! Your article here backs up your deep dive statistical analysis which makes your testimony in front of the AZ State Legislators so amazingly simple to understand! Thank you!