All Eyes on Arizona and Nevada

Topic: Elections

In completely unsurprising fashion, as caveated in the original article, my midterm predictions went up in smoke.  Would I have gotten 435 House seats completely correct in a clean and transparent election?  Not likely, but I certainly would have been in the ballpark of net seats held by each major party, as well as accurate in most of my Senate and Governor predictions.

I will issue a more thorough analysis of the 2022 midterms when the dust settles, but for now, all eyes should be focused on Arizona and Nevada.  This is not to say that the races in the Midwest, Georgia, and other curious states, such as Oregon or Alaska, should be ignored.  My directive is designed with long-term goals in mind.

Given that we face no challenge more serious than the crisis of confidence in our system of elections, it is imperative that we have elected officials committed to remedying this crisis.  Interestingly, individuals capable of doing just that were wiped away in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin with little fanfare.  They were critical candidates for readying those states for fair elections in 2024.  There is no reason to believe, with the existing leadership in those states, that President Trump would prevail in them because of the system of cheating in place.

Therefore, what happens in Arizona and Nevada is critical.  Kari Lake is the national rockstar candidate, but Arizona also has Mark Finchem running for Secretary of State, and Nevada has Jim Marchant in the same race.  Both Secretary of State candidates, along with Lake, are hardcore believers in fixing the elections crisis.  Their enemies know that, which is why both are in jeopardy of being cheated out of midterm victories.  Nevada’s political apparatus is shaking the snake rattle of drop box ballots and talking about how astronomically enormous they are supposed to be for Democrats.  They will be looking to save themselves from Marchant’s reforms, and to keep their hands on the U.S. Senate seat that should rightfully go to Adam Laxalt.

Arizona’s model of reporting election tallies is to dump early mail-in voting returns first.  There is no transparency, no way to match up ballots to actual people, at least not in any way available to the public.  You must simply trust what Katie Hobbs and Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer put out there.  Since the 2018 mid-terms, those results have been upside down, generally showing huge Democrat leads, and gradually tightening margins.  Then, the state pauses things, lets a few thousand ballots at a time trickle out, and creates nothing short of a disaster.

Here is how I described the Arizona model yesterday

The ARIZONA election management model.

1) Frontload heavy early/mail vote based on how much to Election Day turnout is expected.

2) Broadcast massive leads to the public.

3) watch margins tighten dramatically.

4) turn the ketchup bottle upside down and trickle out the count over a week.

5) calculate trend, adjust accordingly.

6) narrow win in alignment with polling.

Donald Trump’s “loss” in 2020 was a mathematical impossibility.  Had Trump produced the average Republican gains realized in 2012 and 2016, he would have landed at 1.263 million votes, a gain of just 11,000.  Instead, Trump gained an enormous 409,000 net new votes, putting him at 1.661 million.  The Democrats with Joe Biden would need to match the record Democrat gain for a single cycle (hard to do given Trump’s surge) just to get to 1.3 million, losing the state by a landslide.  In fact, Biden could have tripled the all-time Democrat vote gain in one cycle and still lost the state by 80,000 votes.

Here is how that “win” happened.  Katie Hobbs, Doug Ducey, Adrian Fontes, and the rest of the Flake/McCain coalition frontloaded hundreds of thousands of imaginary (phantom) ballots by mail, and fielded those totals first on November 3, providing a big enough shock value that the mainstream media called Arizona in response to Trump winning Florida.  That was the signal to stop counting in the Midwest.

As Trump naturally started closing the fraudulent gap, they slowed the count down to a snail’s pace.  They certainly ran the existing ballots and found that Trump had the 1.661 million votes.  Through various insertions, fraudulent ballots were pushed into the tally, and once the organic pile of votes was finally run through, what do you know – Joe Biden wins by 10,457 votes.  The second Republican loss in an Arizona presidential election since 1948, even with a record gain statewide and in Maricopa County.

Make no mistake, the current pauses in Arizona and Nevada are to assess the vote counts of Republican candidates in those states, and to respond accordingly.  They need two things to make those things happen – time and media cover.

Florida has three times more votes than Arizona, and eight times more than Nevada, but they count and report votes within two hours of poll closure.  There is no excuse for our country to sit through this humiliation and subversion of our sacred process of electing leaders.  All Republican candidates should claim victory before the 2020 narrative takes root and these elections take a turn for worse.