April 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary.
FLORIDA
Continued Republican movement, which made the two special elections a cake walk despite subpar GOP turnout. Notably, Miami-Dade County is heading for a flip by year’s end, and Duval County, the perfect predictor of Georgia, is continuing to move right.
IOWA
A voter roll purge pushed the registration index back to the right after two months of statistical noise. Now we should be able to monitor the Upper Midwest, and most importantly Wisconsin, with some degree of accuracy moving forward.
PENNSYLVANIA
The king of battlegrounds continues its rightward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace now that election season is over and voter roll scrubs have concluded. Josh Shapiro can’t be feeling very good about this continuing realignment.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina is on pace to flip to a GOP voter registration by the end of 2025, and already has when considering only active registrations. For sake of data continuity, I’m using the full rolls presented by the state government online.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire does not provide monthly updates, so I have nothing new for you here in a state that promises to have a hotly contested U.S. Senate race next November.
ARIZONA
Only Maricopa (throughout the day) and Pima Counties (weekly) provide frequent updates, so the monthly figures are adjusted with just those two counties (which make up 75% of the total vote) in mind. Arizona’s registration figures are promising, but the need for election integrity fixes is a pressing one.
NEVADA
The only bit of sour news for Republicans in this analysis comes from Nevada. Last month, I reported the GOP had taken the lead in active registrations by 226. This month, Democrats hold the lead by 2. Yes, 2 whole registrations out of more than 2.1 million active registrations statewide. This is statistical noise, however, as the state’s 15 rural or heavily Republican counties purged voter rolls (note Republicans making up ground in Clark). It is likely the GOP will regain the lead by next month’s update.
Conclusion
In the Trump administration’s third month, there are no tangible signs that Americans are rejecting MAGA or reacting against Trump’s policies. The data are a bit inconclusive in that some of the changes reflect voter roll purges, but familiar patterns observed in these key states over the past four to eight years are continuing uninterrupted. Other key states, like New Jersey, New Mexico, and New York, are pushing a GOP registration surge as well, but for the sake of clarity, I have focused on these seven critical battlegrounds. They are the ones most likely to determine the 2028 presidential victor.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Good job. It made my "Today's News" tomorrow.
Captain as always you give us hope vs. hopium!