Arizona - Final 2024 Prediction

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

November 2, 2024

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My third final prediction for the eight battleground states of 2024 is for Arizona.

Arizona was the most reliable GOP presidential state between 1952 and 2016, backing just one Democrat presidential nominee in that timespan (Clinton in 1996).  Shifting coalitions have made it much more competitive than it used to be, particularly the bleeding of urban and suburban Republicans in Maricopa County, but a revitalized conservative grassroots movement and the movement of working-class Latinos rightward seems to offer hope for the coming election and those beyond it.  Unfortunately, Maricopa has been ground zero for election mayhem for the past four years, and that is something that factors into any statewide analysis in the Grand Canyon State.

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Party Registration

2020 – R+3.0% (R+130,454)

2024 – R+6.8% (R+295,555)

Net Shift – R+3.8% (R+165,101)

Arizona’s voter registration shift is utterly horrific for Democrats, as all 15 counties have shifted to the right.  Maricopa County, which contributes more than 60% of all statewide ballots, has shifted more than 77,000 registrations net toward the GOP in four years, and even Pima County has lost a bit of its edge, with the Democrat advantage there dropping below 9%.  Minority-heavy Yuma and Navajo Counties have flipped to a Republican registration advantage.  Overall, Republicans have more than doubled their 2020 voter registration advantage after two consecutive presidential cycles with a declining advantage.

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What Harris Must Do to Win

If I had never heard of the 2020 election, I’d say she has no shot.  Joe Biden’s coup was the second Democrat presidential “win” in the state in the post-World War II era, and it was miraculously done in the face of record Republican Party gains at the state level and in Maricopa County itself.  Biden’s win in that county was the first for a Democrat since Harry Truman’s in 1948.  Arizona is a bit like Nevada in that two counties dominate the vote count.  Pima (metro Tucson) and Maricopa (metro Phoenix) Counties contribute more than three-quarters of the state’s ballot county collectively, so she would have to not only hold Biden’s Maricopa margin but expand there and in Pima County to counter the inevitable surge and collective margin increase from the remaining 13 counties.  Registration data doesn’t make it sound like she’s going to be building on top of anything, nor does the GOP ballot lead of 182,681 measured this morning.

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What Trump Must Do to Win