Alaska, population 740,000, is still counting its meager collection of ballots; Florida, population 23.5 million, finished counting a few hours after polls closed. Folks are reeling from unexpected outcomes in deep-red territory, and every day, we have new reasons to doubt the integrity of elections - illegals registered to vote, machines concealing transparency, and candidates flying past already aggressive polling averages to record performances. Needless to say, there will be many people who don’t want to look into the future any further than a single week, let alone seven months.
Yep - seven months. By this point in June, candidates will be wading into the presidential field from both parties. You’ll see them in the cornfields of Iowa, kicking the tires in New Hampshire, and hosting talk panels in South Carolina. Then they’ll line up at podiums for debates, with big names dominating the center of the lineup and upstarts or also-rans out at the fringes. Some of them will be doing it just for the chow:
I wrote about the Democrat candidates I expected to see in the race 18 months ago:
Who Are the Real Democrat Frontrunners for 2028?
I always knew those bullish poll numbers suggesting Kamala Harris is the runaway favorite to be the Democrat nominee weren’t credible. Remember, we are talking about someone who dropped out of the 2020 nominating contest before the Iowa caucuses wrapped up
18 months ago, Republicans appeared poised to perform modestly well in the 2026 House races and a near-lock to hold the Senate. None of what has transpired this month has changed my view of who the likely Democrat front-runners are. I expect Governors Newsom, Shapiro, and Whitmer to all run, and to potentially be joined by a Kamala Harris reboot. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may determine that 2028 is her window, or perhaps she will primary Chuck Schumer in the Senate - a race she would most likely win given the powerful emergence of the DSA in New York City.
I strongly sense the Democrats’ best bet is a perceived moderate. Many are hoping Jon Ossoff, reelected to a second term in the U.S. Senate from Georgia, enters the field. Ossoff has shrugged these pleas off and said he’s intending to serve his full term in the Senate, but we’ve heard that before. Maybe he’s telling the truth, or maybe not. He’d have a stranglehold on his state’s 16 electoral votes no matter who Republicans run, but in this age of populism versus the old way, exacerbated by the aging-in of a new, pissed-off young electorate, all bets are off. I expect a chaotic Democrat primary field made highly interesting by candidates running off left-wing grassroots (DSA) energy. The Democrat machine will need to do what it does best and control (rig) the primary outcomes with their superdelegates.
For the Republicans, a big three is on the table. At this point here in November 2026, I strongly suspect one of the following will be the 2028 presidential nominee (in no order):
