Blue States are Getting the Message The Bill is Due - Key Policy Under Fire in Maine

I guess it’s not such a great idea now that the future doesn’t belong to Democrats.

Last November, as the dust settled on the 2024 election, I wrote a piece outlining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which fools were attempting to resurrect in Arizona – a state that has put forward Republican electors in all but two elections starting in 1952 (including the ridiculous 2020 result). From that article:

Allow me to explain the unconstitutional National Popular Vote Interstate Compact:

· It was first dreamed up when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in the 2000 Election, despite narrowly losing the “popular vote” (note: national popular vote is not described in the Constitution).

· The premise of the compact is that enacting states will award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, but this only takes effect once enough jurisdictions to equal 270 electoral votes sign on to the compact.

· Currently, 209 electoral votes are accounted for, with 17 states and Washington, D.C., signed on to the NPVIC:

Signed on to NPVIC: California, Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, Washington, D.C.

Here is how this block of states voted in the 2024 Election:

Kamala Harris 208 Electoral Votes

Donald Trump 1 Electoral Vote (Maine’s 2nd Congressional District)

69 more electoral votes, enough to surpass 270 if all states with pending legislation passed the NPVIC, are under consideration across the map in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina.

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So, a chunk of blue states, as shown by a 208 to 1 electoral split, want to get around the Electoral College? What could go wrong? Fortunately for Americans, and owing to the presidential popular vote victory last fall and evidence that may continue based on declining Democrat margins and voter registration numbers in blue strongholds, it appears Democrats may be catching wind that their popular vote power play may not last much longer – if it hasn’t gone extinct already.

Last month, the Maine House of Representatives, under Democrat control, voted to exit the NPVIC. Although this was primarily Republican led, it drew the support of three Democrats and two independents, successfully sending the bill (LD 252) to the Senate.

If current political trends persist, these shifts in presidential margin from 2020 to 2024 in just five key states show you why Democrats may be changing direction and suddenly backing the timeless Electoral College:

California R+1,909,639

Illinois R+411,240

New York R+952,593

Florida R+1,055,401

Texas R+927,126

5,255,999 TOTAL MARGIN SHIFT

Almost exactly three-quarters of Joe Biden’s artificially bloated 2020 popular ballot margin evaporated under the margin swings in just those five states. Trump’s popular vote victory came not only on the movement in these safe red and safe blue states, but through major movement in margins in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, South Carolina, and through gradual changes elsewhere.

Suddenly, with Democrats hemorrhaging the support of the minority working class (especially Latinos) and suffering with men everywhere, the NPVIC doesn’t look so alluring. Without crushing margins in New York and California, and supporting margins in their other blue strongholds, Democrats can’t expect to hold the national popular vote count down in the face of an emerging populist coalition.

This proves once and for all that Democrats advance new measures only once they’ve determined that it benefits their grasp on power. As soon as something is shown to threaten it, they’ll distance. I would put good money, especially if we can get strong electoral reform done in the next couple years, more blue states get off their ridiculous, unconstitutional compact.

“Colonel Chamberlain, sound retreat!”

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.