“But the Polls” - Maine Edition

What do history and reality say about the supposedly inevitable Graham Platner victory in Maine’s Senate race?

Many of you know I couldn’t care less about what polling says. I’ve even leveled up to the point where I don’t care what polling says when it is good for my side. I subscribe to the “campaign like you’re ten points behind” school of thought and care more about what the winds of history and the science of voter registration change tell me about an election.

I’ve also navigated the many thoughts and opinions about Maine’s Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins (the only Republican from New England in all of Congress), and concluded that she is indeed the only person with the (R) behind his or her name who can win a statewide election there, and therefore must be retained:

She is a supreme squish when it comes to critical votes, and she ever so squishily navigated the SAVE America Act dispute by saying she supports the legislation, but dodging with the group when it came to not wanting to pull the procedural moves necessary to get it to a vote. No one can say she doesn’t support the legislation, which 75%+ of Americans want enacted, and no one will remember she hid behind technicalities with Thom Tillis and others to ensure there was no risk of having to actually vote on it. Baby successfully split.

Her lone superpower is winning statewide elections in Maine. That’s it. No Republican has won the state in a presidential race since 1988 (although Trump won the 2nd Congressional District’s split electoral vote in all three races), but Collins has served five consecutive terms in the Senate, and is going for a sixth. Once again, the polling dark arts suggest doom, and the Polymarket fortune seekers are taking the bait:

So, there you have it. The last five polls have Platner up between 7 and 9 points, with the latest putting him over the vaunted 50% mark. There are many reasons I fail to find these polls credible, including Platner’s own massive liabilities as a candidate. The latest oppo drop on Platner, a Maine oyster farmer and radical leftist, dives into the personal realm - an area losing its “oomph” when it comes to impacting the electorate:

If you search around the internet for five minutes, you’ll find many items far more colorful and concerning than the latest batch of information - particularly around the recurring theme that Platner may be an actual Nazi - not a “Nazi” like any standard conservative is accused of being. I’m not sure Nazism is going to be the draw Platner needs to hit his margins in Maine’s 1st Congressional District, but I suppose we shall find out soon.

Something tells me the Democrat machine is trying to Swalwell him to get out in front of any looming information dumps, and perhaps install Maine’s Governor Janet Mills (who dropped from the race recently) to take on Collins. But that is neither here nor there, because I’m here to show you why Collins wins, and why the polling is trash.

---

Why Collins Wins in Maine