California - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

California 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Harris +20.1% (+3,194,482)

My Prediction

Harris by minimum of 20.0%

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Preface

California is the Democrat mother ship, and even in years they don’t win the Electoral College, it is often capable of ensuring their nominee wins the fabled popular vote, which diminishes the so-called mandate for the GOP winner. This was the case in 2000 and 2016, when George W. Bush and Donald Trump, respectively, won the presidential election, but came in second for national votes.

The state has been kept afloat by the U.S. Census Bureau and probably has at least 5 more electoral votes and U.S. House seats than it should thanks to the counting of illegal aliens in population data. The Republican Party needs a complete overhaul since so many traditional conservatives have fled California for other states, like Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, which of course costs all California GOP candidates base votes.

Republicans making major headway in California would permanently throw off the gridlock of U.S. politics, but even with the progress of 2024, that is a long way off. The corruption of the Golden State is a national nightmare, and urban dominance is still the name of the game. Hope for the GOP lies in sticking to its working-class message and going tough on crime and big city problems. I anticipated Trump would make big gains with the Hispanic working class, and following party registration analysis, I pegged a 20% win for Harris at minimum. She wound up at +20.1% in what is most definitely an inflated margin in her home state.

California shifted toward Republicans in party registration since 2020, moving from D+21.9% to D+20.9%.

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Analysis

· 40 of 58 counties (69.0%) shifted toward Republicans by party registration since the 2020 election, as shown below by county:

· As indicated by the swing map below, 57 of 58 counties shifted Republican by percentage margin in presidential results. Only Alpine County, which showed a Democrat registration shift, moved left by percentage, and only by 0.7%. That means the party registration indicator went 41 for 58 (70.7%) in forecasting the trajectory of individual counties by percentage margin.

· Impressively, Trump flipped 10 counties:

Butte – flipped back to Trump after being lost in 2020

Fresno – first GOP presidential win since 2004

Imperial – first GOP presidential win since 1988

Inyo – flipped back to Trump after being lost in 2020

Lake – first GOP presidential win since 1984

Merced – first GOP presidential win since 2004

San Bernardino – first GOP presidential win since 2004

San Joaquin – first GOP presidential win since 2004

Stanislaus – first GOP presidential win since 2004

Riverside – first GOP presidential win since 2004

· Trump’s win of Imperial County, which wasn’t apparent until December thanks to prolonged counting, is perhaps his most impressive achievement in the entire state. Imperial is over 80% Hispanic and was lost by Trump in 2016 by 41.5%. Similar progress and related county flips can be observed up the central spine of California, notably in Fresno County, as many of George W. Bush’s 2004 counties came back to the fold with the conversion of much of the Latino working-class to Trump supporters.

· Much of Trump’s statewide gain came to his extensive cut to the Democrat margin in six counties that gave Harris a raw vote margin of victory over 200,000 each. Notably, Trump evaporated 656,108 in Democrat margin in Los Angeles County alone, despite making only modest gains of his own there, and in Contra Costa, San Francisco, and Alameda Counties. Quite clearly, the Democrat ballot harvesting machine wasn’t able to match Biden’s enormous ballot counts in the major urban areas, or in most of the state, or orders were to keep California’s ballot count at palatable levels so as not to create an unrealistic national count:

· This is how California’s outlying 52 counties performed relative to the “Big Six” counties:

· In her own home state, Harris lagged Biden by 1,834,460 ballots, an enormous drop-off of 16.5% resembling that seen in New York. Incredibly, Trump only added 75,179 ballots to his 2020 count. This underscores the incredible magnitude of the ballot stuffing and extreme manipulation of the 2020 election in California, which was instrumental to the 81 million votes narrative needed to seal public support of Biden’s supposed victory. Harris lost net ballots in every county except Alpine, where she netted 3 ballots over Biden’s total from 2020. She lagged Hillary Clinton in seven counties, including Los Angeles, Santa Clara, Alameda, and San Francisco. The three-cycle contrast map is shown below:

· Did California manage to run a quality election? Not in the slightest. The election took a full month to count, and in that month, Republicans gradually lost leads in two seats they desperately needed to hold (CA-13 and CA-45).

· In CA-13, it took Democrat Adam Gray until December to supposedly unseat Republican John Duarte by 187 ballots out of over 200,000 counted in a district centered on California’s spine northwest of Fresno. Duarte had held a consistent lead until late ballot dumps continued to pour in and break heavily for his opponent, who took a lead that suddenly stopped the flow of ballots:

· In CA-45, located just south of Los Angeles, Republican incumbent Michelle Steel suffered the same cruel December fate as Duarte, losing her seat by 653 ballots (0.2%) out of more than 300,000 counted to Democrat Derek Tran. Incredibly, despite being certain of victory, Steel conceded a third world race:

· Democrats held three other U.S. House seats (CA-9, CA-27, and CA-47) by 10,167 or fewer ballots in each after a month of ballot counting.

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Opportunities for Election Manipulation

Familiarize yourself with the grading criteria for my election ratings. Here is how California rates with regard to the most common election demerits and its own unique traits:

· Voter ID – California does not require any sort of identification for voting.

· Same Day Registration – California allows for same day voter registration.

· Ballot Harvesting – Anyone chosen by the voter may return a ballot, meaning ballot harvesting is a core practice of the Democrat ballot collection machine used to keep that party in power statewide, and in as many jurisdictions as possible.

· Excessive Mail-In Balloting – California has completed the switch to universal mail-in balloting since Democrats realized demographic coalition shifts would push California rightward. Every registrant receives a ballot that can be mailed in or dropped off in person. The only issue is, not every registrant represents a real, eligible voter, but their ballots are available for harvesting.

· Prolonged Counting – California’s elections are a national embarrassment that had even Democrats cringing as key U.S. House races flipped by an eyelash after a month of counting. No voter in California should have confidence in close results completely shielded from public transparency.

· Automatic Voter Registration – California operates a failing Automatic Voter Registration system, which has been highly scrutinized for allowing fraudulent and otherwise ineligible registrations to occur.

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The Road Ahead

Trump’s massive gains in California by raw vote margin are nearly entirely responsible for his winning the national popular vote (Trump won the national popular vote by 2,284,316 and swung 1,909,639 in margin from 2020 in the Golden State). Organically, if elections in California were fair, the state would trend toward competitiveness favoring Democrats within the decade, with continued urban improvement and minority working-class conversion required for ever flipping the state back to Republican control. Unfortunately, outside of urban poverty providing millions of Democrat votes, that party also controls many millions of brainwashed white liberals.

Therefore, just like with the Pacific Northwest, any organic trends in play must be paired with major election reforms that, thanks to the makeup of California’s legislature and the presence of Gavin Newsom as Governor, will not happen legislatively. Trump’s DOJ must take sweeping action to invalidate Automatic Voter Registration and universal mail-in balloting for a seismic shift to take place as to how elections are administered. California’s month-long ballot counting is completely unacceptable and undermines all public confidence in their elections, especially those that flip key races after a month.

My friend and colleague Mitch Clemmons is one of the most avowed freedom fighters I know and has always believed in staying and fighting for California, and even though major corruption exists in the state’s elections (as evidenced by the Duarte and Steel races), there is hope on the horizon with the major statewide gains taken in 2024. He has a team of activists who have vowed to take on the Los Angeles Democrat machine, which will be essential to any future hope of a competitive California. It is also essential for California Republicans to show some courage for a change and stop conceding clearly manipulated election outcomes decided after a month of counting.

As for my final rating for California this year – the state would have likely received a Grade of 3 – Elevated Concern in line with Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, and Colorado for its demerits and corrupt laws, while not crossing over to Grade of 4 – Highest Concern, because the presidential results show major Democrat losses while highlighting the corruption of 2020 boldly; however, since California is the largest state with the most U.S. House seats, and the 2024 election provides clear evidence of malfeasance in altering the federal balance of power, it qualifies as the fifth and final state to receive the most severe grade in my evaluation system.

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Final Grade and Closing Commentary

The Top 10 Election Integrity Targets in California are (in no order):

· Los Angeles County

· Santa Clara County

· San Diego County

· San Francisco County

· Contra Costa County

· Alameda County

· Orange County

· Riverside County

· San Bernardino County

· Ventura County

California receives a Grade of 4 - Highest Concern – based on its identified issues, which include the legalization of nearly every possible fatal flaw pertaining to the administration of free and fair elections. The shift in the presidential vote appears to be a result of an organic Democrat underperformance and a relaxing of ballot stuffing out of the desire to portray fairness in the presidential race nationally, but the late flips of key U.S. House races point to selective manipulation only made possible by the state’s horrific election laws. California voters are not afforded transparency and thanks to the illegal registration system, have their voices cancelled by massively urbanized areas.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.