In early November, Ann Selzer, Iowa’s once-respected pollster who called the state nearly right on the money in 2016 and 2020, indicated Kamala Harris was on pace to win the state by 3 points. Just about everyone knew this smelled like rotten seafood, given that both campaigns were all over Wisconsin, which sits well to the left of the Hawkeye State. You can read my full thoughts on the Selzer poll as it was released here.
Once the betting markets soured on Trump, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich reached out and asked me my thoughts. We had just recorded a podcast together, in which we hammered every state out accurately. Here is the meat of my response to the Speaker:
The very next day, Selzer went on Mark Halperin’s 2WAY show and faced off against Gingrich in what was more of a diplomatic encounter than opinionated face off. Here is an excerpt of what he had to say about our huddle:
You introduced me on your show to Seth Keshel, who focuses on registration patterns, and I was sufficiently perturbed by the Iowa results - and I went to him among seven or eight other people. And it was fascinating because he thinks it is extraordinarily improbable just given patterns that have been building.
Of course you did have an alternative poll that came out at the same time that has Trump winning, I think, by 10…I checked in with a former Speaker of the House and she said they had no indications anywhere in any of their counties of the kind of erosion…I think Keshel’s work, if you believe it, in terms of the registration patterns, would imply that we are much closer to a Reagan-Carter result than we are to 2016 or 2020…if you look at the early voting patterns in virtually every one of the swing states - they’re staggering.
If I had to bet, my bet is that Trump will carry Iowa by 6 to 10 points.
Fate would have it that the registration indicators were dead-on, and Trump not only defied the Selzer poll, but even outpaced the Speaker’s betting estimate with a massive 13.2% win. The lesson here is, next time your state has 100% of its counties all move in the same direction by party registration - don’t ignore it:
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
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