Captain K's 2024 Iowa Caucus Forecast and Prediction

Topic: Elections

Tonight, the Iowa caucus will provide election junkies the first hit of tabulation-induced dopamine that will linger in various dosages for the next 10 months, for better or for worse.  As if Iowans have never faced frigid temperatures before, the mainstream media is pinning its hopes on Jack Frost keeping legions of angry Trump supporters home in such disparate numbers that Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, who when combined still trail Trump by 12% according to Iowa’s gold standard poll, will either surpass Trump, or deprive him of as many delegates as possible. 

The Hawkeye State has just 40 delegates, out of 1,215 needed to win the national Republican nominating contest, up for grabs in tonight’s contest over Iowa’s 99 counties.  While Democrats have moved their nominating contest out of today’s slot to operate a mail-in “caucus” to ensure full control over the party primary, which would have been essential had Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., contested the nomination, Republican voters must show up and vote in person (what a novel concept).

Back to Ann Selzer’s final 2024 poll, linked above:

·       Trump – 48%

·       Haley – 20%

·       DeSantis – 16%

·       Ramaswamy – 8%

·       Remaining/Undecided – 8%

Here is how Selzer’s poll shook out in 2016, the last time Iowa had a caucus with no incumbent (which Trump practically is thanks to 2020’s unresolved conflict):

·      Trump – 28%

·      Cruz – 23%

·      Rubio – 15%

·      Carson – 10%

·      Remaining/Undecided – 24%

Selzer overstated Trump by 4, and understated Cruz by 5 and Rubio, who won in the Des Moines area and a few spots out east, by 8.  This can be reasonably dismissed by the Cruz campaign tricking caucus goers over Ben Carson’s non-drop out, and by the large undecided or weak candidate support field redistributing itself among non-Trump candidates before Trump had established himself as the party’s standard bearer.  Selzer was dead on for the level of support for Carson, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and the candidates down the line who were blown out.

2024 Prediction

Donald Trump is played by himself.

Ted Cruz is played by Ron DeSantis.

Marco Rubio is played by Nikki Haley.

Ben Carson is played by Vivek Ramaswamy.

If Selzer is off by the same numbers she was off by in 2016, we will get a result like this:

·      Trump - 44%

·      Haley - 28%

·      DeSantis - 20%

·      Ramaswamy - 7%

·      Other – 1%

Trump will quite clearly win Iowa, whether by 16% or by 28% or more, as her poll for this year suggests.  The state’s 40 delegates are allocated proportionally, with no minimum threshold required for winning delegates.

Here is my map prediction calling for Trump to win all 99 counties, with a majority in all but five counties (Dallas, Polk, Story, Johnson, and Scott):

Scorecard and Delegate Allocation:

Trump: 53% (21 delegates)

Haley: 19% (8 delegates)

DeSantis: 15% (6 delegates)

Ramaswamy: 12% (5 delegates)

Other: 2%

Most Likely counties for a Haley victory: Story, Dallas, Johnson

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