Captain K's 2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary Forecast and Prediction

Topic: Elections

22 delegates are up for grabs tonight in the first primary (different than a caucus) of the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest, held in New Hampshire.  New Hampshire is still the most conservative of all the New England states, but it is not the red-pilled nest of freedom it once was thanks to having been overrun by what some locals would call Mass-holes seeking refuge from detrimental Democrat-induced financial, social, and general living conditions one state to the south.  New Hampshire flipped to Bill Clinton in 1992 after having voted Republican in 10 of the previous 11 presidential elections between 1948 and 1988.  Only George W. Bush has won it since then, but he couldn’t hold it in 2004 as an incumbent due to major anti-war sentiment in this state with a very diverse ideological foundation.  In fact, New Hampshire is one of just a handful of states I believe moved left organically in 2020, largely due to new arrivals from southern Maine and the Boston metro, which both espouse wretched views of government and politics.

Much has changed in just a week since I made a nearly immaculate prediction of the Iowa Caucus.  Johnson County’s party switch games cost me a 99-county sweep by a single Haley vote, and I had the margins nailed almost to the number statewide.  Now that Ron DeSantis is out of the running, we are down to essentially a two-person race with Nikki Haley squaring off against President Trump, which pro wrestling fans of the 1980s might consider akin to the Honky Tonk Man squaring off with a prime Hulk Hogan – in other words, no contest.

DeSantis’s exit won’t stop some weirdos from voting for him, or anyone else whose name made it on the ballot, but I now expect for Haley and Trump to combine for greater than 95% of the vote by the end of the evening.  538’s running polling average tracker shows Trump’s average lead in recent polls at 53.9% to 36.3% over Haley, or a margin of 17.6%.  The poll that hit closest in 2016, the year of the last truly contested primary there featuring Trump, was Suffolk University’s.  They have the race as of this morning at 60-38% in favor of Trump, affirming the consolidation I said was likely a few lines up from here and the likelihood that DeSantis voters’ second choice would turn out to be Trump over Haley.

New Hampshire has 10 counties, but really gets down in the minutiae when it comes to reporting voting results by municipality.  Consider this another act of accountability, which soon will be unnecessary when Nikki Haley drops out before the South Carolina primary and takes all analysis out of the equation.

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My call:

Trump 59%

Haley 38%

Other 3%

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Trump Municipalities 235 (95.1%)

Haley Municipalities 12 (4.9%)

Municipalities Most Favorable to Haley

Dixville Notch (already reported) – Coos County

Hart’s Location – Coos County

Jackson – Carroll County

Bartlett – Carroll County

Lebanon – Grafton County

Hanover – Grafton County

Lyme – Grafton County

Waterville Valley – Grafton County

Sharon – Hillsborough County

Durham – Strafford County

Rye – Rockingham County

New Castle – Rockingham County

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