Context Still Matters and I’m About to Remind You Why You Read My Newsletter

Did the Democrats really make up ground in the registrations battle, signifying a nationwide turn against the Trump administration?

A major problem with social media culture arises when users simply share items without context, and then proceed to respond emotionally. If you’re into politics, there’s a really good chance you saw this super scary tidbit from the X account Leading Report:

That account has been known to aim for the first click and put out fake news, such as when it convinced everyone Arizona Republicans were on the verge of jailing Katie Hobbs. This information is presented out of context and likely gleaned from the work of Michael Pruser, who is a solid source of political information, and appears to be inaccurate anyway (and likely not the fault of Pruser).

If that blurb were true, then that would cause those who follow my monthly registration updates to question my accuracy and then go on to worry that the American left is finally mobilizing with success against the Trump 47 administration. With regard to those numbers posted above, suggesting Democrats are now surging past Republicans nationally in the voter registration battle, I have two points the reader must consider:

• Context, Context, Context - we have 30 states that register voters by party and several states that don’t which are tied closely to states that do

• It’s always the net change to the voter roll that matters, particularly over a long period of time, such as since the November 2024 election

---

Let’s dig in to see what the facts are.

Earlier this month, I updated my battleground voter registration numbers, which show GOP gains in every such state in June except for Nevada and New Hampshire (New Hampshire didn’t update); all seven are redder (or less blue) by registration since November:

There are 30 states that register voters by party. Among those, only Connecticut has failed to release an update since the November election.

5 states provided no June updates: CA, ME, MA, NH, NY

7 states moved left in registration in June’s net updates: ID, KS, MD, NV, NJ, UT, WY

17 states moved right in registration in June’s net updates: AK, AZ, CO, DE, FL, IA, KY, LA, NE, NM, NC, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV

The movements leftward in deep red states are minor, and in the case of Utah, are owed to routine voter roll maintenance.

All in all, Republicans gained a net of +34,160 in June over the 24 states providing updates. Here are the highlights:

• Florida, +50,184

• North Carolina, +2,074

• Oklahoma, +14,883

• Oregon, +3,709

• Pennsylvania, +2,923

On the other hand, Democrat progress for June is made up almost entirely of their gains in New Jersey, which come to a net of 41,562 in just that one state. Why? Because of the gubernatorial primary which wrapped up last month, which forces voters in a state with a massive Democrat registration advantage to pick a side to cast a primary vote. We saw this with much smaller impact in Pennsylvania during May’s municipal primaries.

Here is the updated 29-state chart reflecting voter registration net change since November:

Key takeaways:

• Republicans maintain a net gain of over one million (+1,007,900) registrations nationally since Election Day 2024 (again, only in the states tracking registration by party). This number appears down slightly from the June release, but this is only because I adjusted the November 2024 registrations data from Florida to reflect a date just before Election Day, rather than before the start of early voting.

• Democrat gains in June (limited to seven states) are driven primarily by the New Jersey primary, and are minimal in the other six states and most likely related to voter roll maintenance in red states that are so heavily Republican that any deletion of registrations naturally hurts the GOP numbers.

• Related to the previous point, Utah is now the only state in the country in which the Democrat Party has a net gain of registrations (824 net) since the November 2024 election. I can’t get numbers by county, but both parties lost registrations last month and Utah is R+39.1% by registration, ensuring voter roll maintenance harms the GOP. Last month, the entire state voter roll shrank by 4,936, indicating this is not a Democrat surge, but a routine maintenance of voter rolls.

Context is key, and I hope this post clears up any confusion and reminds you that I value accuracy above all else.

If you’re part of an upcoming 2025 or 2026 campaign and want to integrate real analysis and hard numbers into your efforts, please contact me at skeshel@protonmail.com to discuss bringing me on board.

---

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.