Empire Elections, Part III: The Two Miracles

Topic: Elections

In this brief mini-series regarding New York’s elections, I have previously covered the nuclear crater caused by the massive Democrat margins built up in New York City’s five boroughs, and also the trends of recent decades that have neutralized “Upstate” New York’s ability to erode and surpass those margins.

With Democrats increasingly uncompetitive in blue collar and rural America, that party has mastered the art of artificially amplifying “turnout” in the major metros to overwhelm the rest of a given state.  In fact, there are 18 states in which no combined Republican county margins can overtake the largest Democrat county margin; therefore, New York has gone from a swing state in the 1970s and 1980s to a blowout “blue state” that hasn’t even had a close presidential race since 1988, when George H.W. Bush lost it to Michael Dukakis.

In the first two pieces, I shamelessly stole the “two miracles” subplot from Top Gun: Maverick, outlining what must take place for a GOP statewide victory to occur at the presidential level.

Here are the ingredients:

Miracle Number One

A victory cocktail in New York overall for a Republican would need numbers like this in New York City: