February 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Feb 07, 2026

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.

Last month’s report can be found here.

FLORIDA

Net Shift Since January: R+58,753

Just as I begin to think Florida’s Republican surge has to slow or end at some point, it explodes enough to push Florida over R+11. Word on the street is that the statewide gutting of Democrat memberships came from a purge in Broward County, the election fraud capital of the Sunshine State. Florida’s transformation is an astonishing political phenomenon that should put everyone at ease about blue state transplants.
Duval County has shifted to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage, which suggests Georgia is also getting redder. Duval has shifted more than 8,000 net registrations toward the GOP since November 2024.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election.

IOWA

Net Shift Since January: R+497

Another consistent monthly gain for Republicans in a two-time Obama state. Iowa is no longer playable for Democrats at the state level, but will have two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party.

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since January: D+1,896 Total, R+7,457 Active

Democrats have made net gains in the voter roll four of the past five months, but Republicans are constantly gaining in the active voter roll, the one that truly matters. Because of this, I am altering my Pennsylvania reporting to include both the total and active roll. I have asked two colleagues in the Keystone State to investigate how Democrats keep making minor gains in total registration, yet are still getting smoked on active registration.
The shift in active registration last month moved another 7,457 net toward the GOP, which puts them within a half point of flipping the state entirely.
The Democrats have lost more than two-thirds of their active registration advantage they held on Election Day 2024, a damning sign of their electoral prospects in the most important battleground state; still, this year’s races are going to be focused on defending four vulnerable GOP House seats more than there is any realistic shot of unseating Josh Shapiro.

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since January: R+8,013

For the first time, my monthly update shows North Carolina as a full-fledged red state. Republicans made strong gains in January, eliminating a Democrat voter registration lead that has been in existence as long as the state has tracked such statistics. The state’s active voter registration is even more Republican (R+117,404, R+1.8%), but unlike Pennsylvania, the total and active rolls are moving in the same direction.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley expected to be the Republican nominee.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by at least 5 points. If the party gets serious about denting Democrat margins in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties, the state could finally fall off the list of battlegrounds requiring significant investment of time, energy, and money - but that would require Republicans operating outside of their comfort zones and skill sets.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since January: D+363

With its latest quarterly update, New Hampshire shifts in favor of Democrats by 363 registrations net. This is the first quarterly update since the 2024 election in which I’ve seen Democrat progress, but it is merely a function of voter roll cuts impacting both parties.
The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for that Senate seat.

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since January: R+1,929

My unofficial numbers for Arizona registrations include constant updates for Maricopa and Pima Counties, which I have access to. As expected, the Secretary of State published his statewide update, showing a GOP trend through practically every county.

Democrats have made gradual gains in Maricopa County, but I’m not sure how much of that is organic versus how much of that is owed to Recorder Heap’s cuts to voter rolls; voter registration cuts in Pima County, the state’s blue center of gravity, favored the GOP by 3,372 net since December.
Republicans now enjoy a voter registration advantage almost exactly twice as large as it was when Katie Hobbs administered her own gubernatorial election as Secretary of State and “beat” Kari Lake by 17,117 ballots in a Venezuela-style election almost four years ago.

NEVADA

Net Shift Since January: D+519

In the most back-and-forth state in this monthly update, Nevada shifts by 519 toward Democrats in January. This was all Clark County, with a net shift of 667 toward Democrats last month there. The rest of the state, including Washoe County (which would capture an organic left shift in the state if present), moved toward the GOP by a net of 148.
Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.