Florida U.S. House Special Elections - Predictions (FL-1 and FL-6)

My full-on analytical workshop for the races to fill seats vacated by Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz in ruby red Florida - plus predictions, graphics, and models galore.

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race isn’t the only important election cooking these days. Florida has two special elections set to be decided on Tuesday, April 1. The U.S. House seat allocated to Florida’s 1^st Congressional District (FL-1), previously held by Republican Matt Gaetz (initially nominated to be President Trump’s Attorney General) is up for grabs, along with the corresponding seat for the 6^th Congressional District (FL-6). The latter seat was previously held by Michael Waltz, the President’s National Security Advisor.

The Republicans held a 220 to 214 majority after the November 2024 election, and it now stands at 218 to 213 after the two Florida House departures after the recent death of Democrat Sylvester Turner (Texas). Needless to say, if the Democrats pick up the two Florida seats, the GOP majority will stand at a paltry 218 to 215, pending an election to fill Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee’s seat that was left vacant for this Congress thanks to procedural issues.

---

Geography

Florida’s 28 Congressional districts

FL-1 covers the far western portion of the uber-conservative Florida Panhandle, which is culturally part of the Deep South. This encompasses all of Escambia (core Pensacola), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties, plus the western half of Walton County. This is the seat once held by the dastardly “Morning Joe” Scarborough, and it hasn’t been in Democrat hands since 1995, before the Deep South began its hard Republican lean.

FL-6 lies within Florida’s northeastern region, encompassing all of Flagler and Putnam Counties, and portions of Lake, Marion, Volusia, and St. Johns Counties. This district is drawn to cut out the suburbs of Jacksonville (St. Johns) and Orlando (Lake). This seat is Ron DeSantis’s old U.S. House seat, and it has not been held by a Democrat since 1989.

---

Most Recent Elections

FL-1