Four Courses for Fall: Scenario 1 (Trump Squeaker)

Topic: Perspective

Before reading further, familiarize yourself with the following introductory piece:

Link to Four Courses Orientation

What follows is the first of four scenarios I consider most likely to occur regarding the 2024 presidential election.  The three remaining scenarios will be published within the next two weeks.

Scenario 1

Trump Squeaker

The first scenario, which falls under the two most likely scenarios outlining a Trump victory, sees President Trump capturing the White House in similar fashion to his victory in 2016. 

After counting finally ceases in mid-November, it is Trump ahead of Biden in a victory scenario resembling the one below (note: the map below does not reflect the full depth of my analysis, nor my final prediction – it is merely hypothetical and created to support Scenario 1).  In this example, the six contested states of 2020, comprising 77 electoral votes, are lightly shaded.  Trump has the Core 235 secured, which are all electoral votes certified for him in 2020, and with Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, clears 270.  Nevada is icing on the cake and provides a little buffer for any elector games the Democrats may attempt to keep Joe Biden in the White House.

Michigan and Pennsylvania, thanks to tyrannical leadership, Automatic Voter Registration, and the midwestern ballot harvesting monster, again produce Democrat electoral votes despite poor polling for Biden in both, the major Republican shift in party registration in Pennsylvania, which has shifted with Michigan for nearly a century, and major Trump gains from the past election, which itself brought its own massive gains.  Wisconsin matches Iowa’s hard right trend and goes to Trump by a surprisingly comfortable margin, but Minnesota escapes once again thanks to the actions of its Democrat legislative trifecta in entrenching fraudulent election practices.  The media blame the weak Biden black vote share for Georgia going back to Trump, and the blue-collar Hispanics get the blame in the southwest, especially after they made even New Mexico a photo finish.

Reasons It Could Happen