Four Key Predictions for the First Republican Debate Night and the Carlson Interview

Topic: Predictions

Tonight, in Milwaukee, the following eight candidates are expected to take part in the first Republican presidential debate:

Gov. Doug Burgum (ND), Gov. Chris Christie (NJ), Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL), Gov. Nikki Haley (SC), Gov. Asa Hutchinson (AR), VP Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott (SC)

I suspect this debate field will resemble a meteorite entering Earth’s atmosphere and crumbling into millions of dust particle and rock fragments, with a number of these candidates qualifying for this first debate in what I would consider a miracle, and two of the more interesting candidates, Larry Elder and Perry Johnson, squeezed out.  With President Trump appearing on a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson at the same time, we are potentially in for even more amusing optics than when DeSantis’s campaign announcement on Twitter belly-flopped in epic fashion.

Let’s be honest.  The candidates listed above are either hoping the courts drag Trump out of the race, or the states themselves remove him from their ballots, or they’re running for a book deal or a cabinet position; nevertheless, this process has to play out, even if there is no real market for a new candidate since 80% of Republican primary voters believe the 2020 election (a quasi-election, at best) was impacted by cheating, and the person who should have won that election is running again, and is mentally intact and physically well, despite propaganda online to the contrary.

Without further ado, here are four key predictions in advance of tomorrow’s debate:

I.          President Trump’s Decision to Decline the Debate is the Right Call

            CBS News polling credits Trump with a 46-point lead nationally over DeSantis, and other polling shows that lead only grows in the Rust Belt and in the Deep South.  There is absolutely no upside for President Trump to participate, especially since he would be attacked by the other eight for the entire debate and be set up to make mistakes. 

I would consider Trump’s participation as unnecessary as a college football power scheduling strong regional non-conference teams who sometimes have an outstanding season.  You gain nothing by winning, because you’re the juggernaut that is supposed to win, but you stand to lose plenty if they pull off a big upset.

Potential reasons for Trump-no showing:

            a.         The field would only attack him, since he is so far ahead of the rest of them that there is nothing to gain, and ground to lose (not that Trump would lose ground on merit).

            b.         X user Viva Frei, a lawyer, theorized that Trump could get himself in legal trouble if goaded into going after Mike Pence or opining on any of his cases, especially the circus related to his involvement on January 6.

            c.         See Point II for the most likely reason.

II.         Trump’s Interview with Tucker Carlson will Show the Real Score

            Like a skilled matador, El Presidente is going to sidestep the bulls who seek to gore him, and allow them to run out of energy before artfully driving his asymmetric approach to information warfare through their shoulder blades.  MSNBC laments Trump’s absence as “Jaws without the shark,” and I would probably liken it to the Patriots without Tom Brady, or an old-school Wrestlemania without Hulk Hogan.

            That means the sanctioned Republican Party debate, which lacks its main attraction, will post humiliating ratings numbers, while Trump’s interview with Carlson will draw a global audience to watch the one who once wrote to never be afraid to walk away from a deal.  By simply conducting an interview, Trump will highlight the insignificance of the rest of the Republican field, relegating them to the little kids’ table and petty discussions about how Trump’s tone isn’t appropriate for what, at least until recently, had been the most powerful office in the world.

III.        The Debate will Resemble a Pillow Fight

            DeSantis’s debate strategy has already been leaked, perhaps from a staffer who is tired of the inauthentic, robotic stiffness on display from the governor of a major red state who is failing to tout some of his most important accomplishments because a narrative of unacceptable elections will not benefit his campaign.

            To the detriment of those hoping for a suspenseful debate, it appears DeSantis will be expressing moderate disgust for Trump’s legal plight, which is something he would have done two months ago when Trump was indicted in South Florida if he was at all sincere about standing up against judicial persecution.  Vivek Ramaswamy will get the brunt of DeSantis’s haymakers, a surefire confirmation that the polling is not rigged, as some Trump haters say, and the battle for second place is a real thing.  On another note, who needs someone to tell them what to say to the other candidates, unless a candidate lacks relatability and authenticity?

            Ironically, DeSantis has two great election integrity related points that would help him tremendously.  The first is his authorization of an election crimes unit, and the second is the signing of a bill making ballot harvesting a felony.  He probably won’t drive those points home, if at all, because focusing on corrupt elections only advances the cause of one candidate – the one not attending the debate and the subject of Carlson’s interview.

            Other candidates will be in a fight for relevancy.  Haley will seek to turn back the clock to 2004, touting our principles and the merits of American troops in Ukraine, while Chris Christie should break the ice by showing his famous sunbathing photo from when no one else was allowed on the beach:

            North Dakota governor Doug Burgum is probably the most intriguing of the bunch, and the one who has campaign consultants smart enough to have him pose for photos wearing a barn coat, as if he’s occupied terrain between West Virginia and Idaho at some point in his political career.  Burgum never played in politics until he built a business empire, and then knocked off an establishment Republican candidate in the gubernatorial primary in 2016, winning the general and a subsequent re-election by a mile.  His state has the cleanest elections in America, a subject I will save for a future article.  I am not sure he knows that, or why that would be the case.

IV.        Outcomes

            Overall Winner – Trump, who will surge in polling as other candidates drop out or find themselves on the ropes.  We all know his policies, and we care about elections and national sovereignty.  Neither of those topics will be rallied around at the Republican debate.

            Most Cringe – Christie, who will try to land big shots on Trump as an “attack dog.”

            Most Likely to Drop Out After – Hutchinson, a never-Trumper from one of the Trumpiest parts of the land.

            Most Faded Star – Pence, over thirty pieces of silver.

            Most Likely to Surprise – Burgum, due to employing smarter consultants and some positive accomplishments.

There’s no sense in campaigning.  These poor candidates will only lose tired.