How Hard (or Easy) is it to Harvest 100,000 Ballots in One Major County?
A data-driven investigation specifically tailored to meet the intellectual demands of those who believe it is impossible to defraud American elections, with Orange County, California, as my canvas.
One of my favorite locations for events in the past four years has been Orange County, California. That county was one of the last urban Republican holdouts in the Golden State until it flipped in 2016, although signs of life are present throughout California’s chaotic electoral environment. The county, unlike many in California, has continued to grow, although at smaller rates. Only recently has it been estimated to be losing population in light of the COVID-19 fiasco.
Orange County was presidentially red in every election between 1940 and 2012. The county generally produced an increased ballot count election after election starting at the turn of the century, with one exception (2012):
Total Ballots
2000 970,905
2004 1,075,399
2008 1,153,687
2012 1,122,664
2016 1,197,521
2020 1,522,113
2024 1,391,307
It certainly comes as no surprise that the man who gathered over “81 million votes” benefited from the single biggest surge in the history of the county, when Orange sprouted 324,557 net new ballots from 2016 to 2020, only to see his successor plummet 8.6% in 2024. Keep in mind, ladies and gentlemen, that Kamala Harris lagged Joe Biden by over 1.8 million “votes” in her own home state, while Trump barely gained from 2020 at all statewide while declining in Orange by 21,683 votes (Harris was down 122,278 in the county from Biden).
Where the hell did all these votes go? Thanks to Cherisse, my indispensable research ace, I’ll show you.
Harris lost net votes from Biden in 33 of Orange County’s 35 municipalities:
· Anaheim (-16,793)
· Santa Ana (-15,711)
· Irvine (-11,847)
· Rancho Santa Margarita (-10,310)*** - appears to have new boundaries
· Huntington Beach (-7,510)
· Fullerton (-5,811)
· Garden Grove (-5,052)
The impact of Harris’ plummet is that Trump came within 2.7% of winning the county (he won Riverside and San Bernardino Counties for the first GOP presidential wins since 2004), and flipped Garden Grove, Mission Viejo, and Brea.
Looking at my 2020 research below, you can see where I’ve spotted likely ballot harvesting activities intended to bloat Biden’s popular vote tally and ensure the Democrats won as many House seats as possible in the area (those are in red). My research accounted for 14 municipalities (including unincorporated Orange County, in which it is likely Biden’s ballot count exceeded forecasts by at least 3,000).
The average Democrat vote tally in Orange County since the flip has been 705,234 in three cycles (Clinton, Biden, Harris). Harris lagged Biden by 122,278, as mentioned earlier, coming in below the average mark and making me question:
Where did those extra 100,000 votes come from in 2020?
Well, it seems like they didn’t have any interest in voting in 2024, even though the voter roll had increased by 89,310, signifying increased potential participation:
Total Registered Voters
2020 1,772,700
2024 1,862,010
How hard would it be to get back 100,000 of Biden’s ballot count for Harris, now that we know that is possible based on the growth of the voter roll and also because Trump didn’t exceed his own 2020 vote total (a key driver of one party declining in votes year after year is the growth of the other party, and the flipping of previously held votes)?
Anaheim
Population: 346,824* (2020 official)
Need: 16,793 ballots
How: Hire 200 ballot harvesters, assign them to collect 84 ballots each, and pay them $30 per ballot.
Cost: $2,520 per ballot harvester.
Human Resources: 1 of 1,734 Anaheim residents would need to become a paid ballot harvester.
Scope: Focus on low-income housing throughout the urbanized city, the 10th most populous in California.
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