How the Redistricting War Was Lost

It’s not the whole war for the future, but its a significant battle soon to be smoking in the rearview.

The redistricting wars kicked off in earnest with Texas in the saddle last year. Though Ohio kicked the tires on redistricting first, the Texas legislature pushed through a map that threatened to carve out as many as five Democrat seats, but the effort set off an evil light bulb for the offended party’s masterminds that is now coming back to bite us in grand fashion.

Truth be told, the Democrats may have taken their path anyway, with or without Texas taking an axe to the map - just like they’ll abolish the filibuster in the Senate next time they control it whether we do it or not. As I wrote about Texas last summer:

At least 4 of these 5 redraws appear to be slam-dunk GOP pickups, with Cuellar’s TX-28 being the one I question the most thanks to the existence of midterm dynamics. Don’t be surprised if he opts to switch parties; he has been complimentary of Trump’s border policies, indicating that he knows the math, the trend, and where his future bread is buttered. This redraw may accelerate the major Latino coalition shift in the region by nature of converting its Congressman into the present age.

The U.S. Supreme Court did indeed uphold Texas’s new map, but unfortunately also upheld California’s, which went around its independent redistricting commission. This trick (legislature draws new maps, shop it out to “voters,” and implement) is now the go-to tactic for blue states looking to make sure the Democrats win the House this year.

Now, a summary of why Republicans are in the process of sustaining mortal wounds for the national U.S. House race this year (as a reminder, I’m an intelligence officer with the job of delivering you the bad news when it is, in fact, warranted):

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THE GOOD

Several Republican states have redrawn their maps to favor the GOP.

• Texas - The Republicans aren’t at risk of losing any of their 25 seats, and are certain to gain at least 3 from the redraw. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) looks safe to me without Trump on the ticket and in a midterm, but I think the Republicans can pick up TX-34 (Vicente Gonzalez) with a good campaign. *+3 GOP*

• Ohio - The GOP had the opportunity to deliver a crushing blow in the Buckeye State, but went “Midwest soft” on the map while their Democrat colleagues are busy ensuring vast hinterlands of this nation are represented by urban communists. They won’t be losing any of their 10 GOP seats, and have made it possible to pick up OH-1 (Greg Landsman), OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur), and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes), with OH-9 being the most likely flip. Let’s call it *+1 GOP*

• Missouri - Clean and smooth, the Missouri legislature removed Emanuel Cleaver’s seat in MO-5. Cleaver, naturally, is whining about it in the press without mentioning what I will describe in “the bad.” *+1 GOP*

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THE BAD

These negative circumstances have limited the Republican Party’s 2026 potential:

• Indiana - When Mike Pence’s disciples talk about bringing Scripture to life in state government, I never thought they were intending to focus on the works of Judas Iscariot. Knowing full well Democrats were going for the jugular, they passed on the chance to have a 9-0 Republican map, effectively handing the Democrats two free seats.

• Nebraska - Yet another disappointing state with no real statewide competition. They didn’t do anything actively this cycle, but have repeatedly passed on a chance to control all three House seats in a state Trump won by over 20 points in 2024. The last time the weasels in the legislature redrew NE-2 (Don Bacon retiring), they added Saunders County only to the map, without enough Republican muscle to secure that electoral vote in presidential races or hold the seat in a Democrat-favorable midterm like this one.

• Utah - For a change, not the fault of a weak legislature here. An activist judge overturned GOP favorable maps and handed the Democrats the seat for UT-1, which is now a waste of resources for the GOP to contest.

These setbacks give Democrats FOUR more seats than they should have this cycle.

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THE UGLY

A popular way of offloading the redistricting hassle every decade has been the creation of independent redistricting commissions, such as those overwhelmingly supported by voters in California, Colorado, and Virginia, to name a few. After this shitshow of a midterm year with everyone racing to game the midterms (including red states), I suspect they will be everywhere after the next census, which will crush Democrats nationwide.

California - The Democrats in California aren’t satisfied with a 43-9 House distribution; they are going for 48-4, which I consider likely based on their election laws and tendency to count ballots until Christmas. I originally (and foolishly) thought this was a “pipe dream” when the idea came up because I somehow thought Democrats would honor the state’s constitution, which gives the task of redistricting to the independent commission voters approved. The playbook quickly became:

• Draw new maps

• Send to voters (and “voters”) to approve in a rigged election

• Implement maps

• Survive legal challenges

• *+5 DEM*

Colorado - Same story, same playbook. Just as I was worrying about how to handle Virginia, I found out yesterday Colorado is going to run the California play and leave Republicans with 1 of 8 seats. The vast farmlands of eastern Colorado, pending voter approval in an all-mail quasi election, will now be represented by communists from the drugged utopia of Denver. *+3 DEM*

Virginia - I hate to say “I told you so,” but I knew Virginia’s 2025 elections would be a disaster as soon as I watched all the federal employees marching out of Washington carrying brown cardboard boxes. Now the CIA spook and Hillary wannabe Abigail Spanberger is going to pay her Democrat membership dues by putting to bed any notion that Virginia is a political battleground. The plan is to take a 6-5 Democrat U.S. House allotment and run it all the way to 10-1 (in a state Harris only won by 5.8%!).

Spoiler alert: Yes, the referendum will pass; the only hope is a reversal by the state Supreme Court, which seems unlikely given timelines. The U.S. Supreme Court has already allowed California’s similar redistricting. *+4 DEM*

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CONCLUSION

Put it all together and what do you get?

The Good: +5 GOP

The Ugly: +12 DEM

Head to Head: +7 DEM

Now add in “The Bad” handouts by inaction or courts, and we get DEM +11 for the redistricting wars.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - one side wants to win, and the other wants to be celebrated for chivalrous actions. I’ll let you figure out which is which.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.