How the Redistricting War Was Lost

It’s not the whole war for the future, but its a significant battle soon to be smoking in the rearview.

The redistricting wars kicked off in earnest with Texas in the saddle last year. Though Ohio kicked the tires on redistricting first, the Texas legislature pushed through a map that threatened to carve out as many as five Democrat seats, but the effort set off an evil light bulb for the offended party’s masterminds that is now coming back to bite us in grand fashion.

Truth be told, the Democrats may have taken their path anyway, with or without Texas taking an axe to the map - just like they’ll abolish the filibuster in the Senate next time they control it whether we do it or not. As I wrote about Texas last summer:

At least 4 of these 5 redraws appear to be slam-dunk GOP pickups, with Cuellar’s TX-28 being the one I question the most thanks to the existence of midterm dynamics. Don’t be surprised if he opts to switch parties; he has been complimentary of Trump’s border policies, indicating that he knows the math, the trend, and where his future bread is buttered. This redraw may accelerate the major Latino coalition shift in the region by nature of converting its Congressman into the present age.

The U.S. Supreme Court did indeed uphold Texas’s new map, but unfortunately also upheld California’s, which went around its independent redistricting commission. This trick (legislature draws new maps, shop it out to “voters,” and implement) is now the go-to tactic for blue states looking to make sure the Democrats win the House this year.

Now, a summary of why Republicans are in the process of sustaining mortal wounds for the national U.S. House race this year (as a reminder, I’m an intelligence officer with the job of delivering you the bad news when it is, in fact, warranted):

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THE GOOD

Several Republican states have redrawn their maps to favor the GOP.

• Texas - The Republicans aren’t at risk of losing any of their 25 seats, and are certain to gain at least 3 from the redraw. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) looks safe to me without Trump on the ticket and in a midterm, but I think the Republicans can pick up TX-34 (Vicente Gonzalez) with a good campaign. *+3 GOP*

• Ohio - The GOP had the opportunity to deliver a crushing blow in the Buckeye State, but went “Midwest soft” on the map while their Democrat colleagues are busy ensuring vast hinterlands of this nation are represented by urban communists. They won’t be losing any of their 10 GOP seats, and have made it possible to pick up OH-1 (Greg Landsman), OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur), and OH-13 (Emilia Sykes), with OH-9 being the most likely flip. Let’s call it *+1 GOP*

• Missouri - Clean and smooth, the Missouri legislature removed Emanuel Cleaver’s seat in MO-5. Cleaver, naturally, is whining about it in the press without mentioning what I will describe in “the bad.” *+1 GOP*

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THE BAD

These negative circumstances have limited the Republican Party’s 2026 potential: