I Have A Winning Strategy for Local Races - And Here’s the Proof

Laser precision for maximum impact can transform local politics for good.

As I was drowning in the negativity of last week’s election results and preparing to write them up, I received a message in my inbox - BIG Win.

This silver lining came from David Cole, a reader of this newsletter and someone I met at a speaking event this year in Pasco, Washington. David had run unsuccessfully for a spot on the West Richland City Council in 2023, dropping the race by 266 votes (or ballots) to a left-winger in red turf (Trump won every precinct of West Richland in 2024). When I tell you Democrats have mastered ballot collection and Republicans elect them by staying home (or not sending in ballots), I mean it.

2023 outcome

After we met, David told me he was running for the council again. I suggested I run a precinct analysis and produce a targeting report, which his campaign agreed to sponsor. Here are a few snippets of the 9-page report:

All 19 precincts mapped by disposition

The 19 precincts analyzed by classification

Description of one of the key precincts

I told David to focus on Precincts 4008, 4012, and 4019.

And the results…

Cole’s 22-point win marks a swing of more than 27 points right of his 2023 outcome, over the same exact precincts. The campaign had to put the work in and have control of the message, but spending time, energy, and money wisely is still the way ahead no matter how badly a state has warped the voting process with mail-in voting, ballot harvesting, and every cheat in the books.

Local change is how we save America.

This article is just as much for the skeptics out there who think I pull things out of thin air as it is for those of you who have campaigns to win. This may even include those of you running to defend seats like IA-1 next year. If this is of interest to you, feel free to email me at skeshel@protonmail.com.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.