I Have A Winning Strategy for Local Races - And Here’s the Proof
Laser precision for maximum impact can transform local politics for good.
As I was drowning in the negativity of last week’s election results and preparing to write them up, I received a message in my inbox - BIG Win.
This silver lining came from David Cole, a reader of this newsletter and someone I met at a speaking event this year in Pasco, Washington. David had run unsuccessfully for a spot on the West Richland City Council in 2023, dropping the race by 266 votes (or ballots) to a left-winger in red turf (Trump won every precinct of West Richland in 2024). When I tell you Democrats have mastered ballot collection and Republicans elect them by staying home (or not sending in ballots), I mean it.
After we met, David told me he was running for the council again. I suggested I run a precinct analysis and produce a targeting report, which his campaign agreed to sponsor. Here are a few snippets of the 9-page report:
I told David to focus on Precincts 4008, 4012, and 4019.
And the results…
Cole’s 22-point win marks a swing of more than 27 points right of his 2023 outcome, over the same exact precincts. The campaign had to put the work in and have control of the message, but spending time, energy, and money wisely is still the way ahead no matter how badly a state has warped the voting process with mail-in voting, ballot harvesting, and every cheat in the books.
Local change is how we save America.
This article is just as much for the skeptics out there who think I pull things out of thin air as it is for those of you who have campaigns to win. This may even include those of you running to defend seats like IA-1 next year. If this is of interest to you, feel free to email me at skeshel@protonmail.com.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
A hypothesis about R voters: They tend to regard government as an adversary, and therefore lack enthusiasm unless and until this or that charismatic figure lights their fire. Which is one reason why Rs underperform in many elections.
I usually despise the term "messaging," but what I will say is an exception.
R politicians need to change their "messaging" in the following ways:
1. Cast government not as the eternal adversary, but as necessary in many respects. Government should be limited as much as possible, but when needed government should be disciplined, focused, and frugal. If government can do that, it's not the enemy. Give specific examples of what government should do, and when it has been successful. Don't be attacking government, be the ones who want to make it work better.
2. Don't make promises, but instead talk about goals. Be realistic in that sense: "I will do my best to try to do X, Y, and Z. It took a long time to get us into this mess, and it will take time to get us out of it. I can only promise that I will try my hardest to get things right, but it won't happen tomorrow."
3. Rs should cast themselves as the friends and representatives of "the people who pay the bills," and define that as the working middle class. In doing so, talk the people's everyday language. Each side has their ideological jargon. The Ds are worse right now, but the Rs hardly come to the table with clean hands.
4. Tell their voters that nothing in government happens by itself, so if you agree about the first three, you need to vote for it. The other side will vote to raise your taxes and do ridiculous things, and unless you show up then that's what will happen.
That's the blueprint from me. The actual language is for people more gifted than myself.
The proof is in the winning!
Can’t argue with a win.👍🚂🇺🇸