Iowa - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Iowa 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

---

Outcome

Trump +13.3% (+219,741)

My Prediction

Trump by minimum of 10.0%

---

Preface

You may be wondering, if you’ve kept up with all previously completed reviews, why I am giving a small state Trump won by over 13 points its own review and not grouping it with adjacent blowout states like Missouri, South Dakota, or Nebraska. The answer is simple – because Iowa gives us the best insight into what should have occurred in Wisconsin, as the two have been closely linked for all modern political history. Anyone wishing to fully understand the intricacies of this year’s election in Wisconsin must first comprehend the carnage that ensued in Iowa to fully appreciate how much things went awry in the Badger State in terms of election integrity.

First off, I knew Iowa was going to be ugly for Harris and have been on top of that for most of this year. I wrote an article outlining Iowa with relation to Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent, Minnesota, in June. Shortly before I wrote it, Ann Selzer, Iowa’s much ballyhooed polling oracle, had Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by 18 points, an insane number that, if correct, guaranteed an easy Trump win in Wisconsin, and a likely one in Minnesota, despite its entrenched cheating apparatus.

Selzer adjusted fire by September, declaring Trump led Harris by just 4%, which is four points to the right of where she had Trump over Biden at the same point in 2020, when she got the final call almost right on the money, within 1.2%. Most online gurus expected her to release a final poll in the Trump +10% range the week before the 2024 election, and instead, she rolled out a Harris +3% poll. Keep in mind, dear readers, that all 99 counties in Iowa became more Republican or less Democrat than they were in 2020, thanks not only to the organic right-shifting going on in the Upper Midwest, but a purge of fraudulent, inactive, or otherwise ineligible voter registrations, which (surprise) disparately harmed the Democrats all across the state.

I believe the first thought in any analyst’s mind should be that Selzer was bought off or coerced into releasing such a pudding-brained poll, and I think the reason it was ordered was to manipulate betting markets (which happened) and throw off the trail in Wisconsin, which (spoiler alert) is on this year’s worst of the worst list. Newt Gingrich reached out to me for my input and confronted Selzer on the results on Mark Halperin’s show just before Election Day (I’m glad I was right, Mr. Speaker). In the aftermath of Trump’s 13.3% blowout, 16.3% to the right of Selzer’s call, hilarity has ensued. Selzer has quit the polling business and swears up and down it was a freak miss. If you’d like to see my immediate response as to why that is a lie, read here.

Anyone with two functioning brain cells knew Harris was due to pay the piper in Iowa, which shifted in party registration from R+1.0% in 2020 to R+10.4% in 2024, moving right in every county and leaving just six counties behind still clinging to a Democrat voter registration. The utter carnage is depicted by county below:

---

Analysis

· 98 of 99 counties shifted more Republican in results, with tiny Page County in southwestern Iowa dipping 0.6% left thanks to depopulation and the ensuing vote loss for both nominees (Trump still won it by 42.4%). That means the party registration indicator went 98 for 99 (99.0%) in predicting margin shifts by county (so much for polling witchcraft). This is how the margins shook out by county:

· Trump outdid his 2020 performance by raw vote margin in 93 of 99 counties, and as I predicted, flipped Wisconsin predictor Scott County, which contains metro Davenport, for the first GOP presidential win there since 1984. Hat tip to my friend and fellow patriot Harold Finch for helping that come to fruition.

· Incredibly, Iowa was a two-time Obama state before Trump flipped it in 2016, and even won it to the right of Texas by percentage margin of victory in his first two campaigns. The Hawkeye State has shifted 366,302 votes rightward from Obama’s 9.5% blowout of John McCain. Here is a depiction of Iowa’s margins from Obama’s first run through Trump’s third:

· Harris was absolutely clobbered from one corner of Iowa to the next. She added ballots over Biden’s 2020 count in just two counties – Dallas (+2,523) and Warren (+138) – both collar counties of Des Moines, which is in Polk County (where Harris lost 6,175 of Biden’s ballots and 4.5% of victory margin. Incredibly, Harris lagged Hillary Clinton for raw votes in 52 of Iowa’s 99 counties and won just five counties. See contrast map below:

· All in all, Harris lost 51,783 of Biden’s 2020 ballot count and suffered the worst defeat of any party’s presidential nominee since Democrat George McGovern lost the state to Richard Nixon by 17.1% in 1972. It is likely these losses are due not only to organic regionals trends, but also due to more than a quarter million fewer absentee ballots being counted.

---

Opportunities for Election Manipulation

Familiarize yourself with the grading criteria for my election ratings. Here is how Iowa rates with regard to the most common election demerits and its own unique traits:

· Voter ID – Iowa has identification laws, but they do not require photo ID, are not particularly strong, and can be worked around if someone is determined to thwart them.

· Same Day Registration – Same day registration is allowed in Iowa.

· Ballot Harvesting – Iowa has strict controls over the return of absentee ballots, essentially banning widespread harvesting.

· Automatic Voter Registration – Iowa does not operate Automatic Voter Registration, and in fact made great progress in eliminating voter roll corruption since the last presidential election.

---

The Road Ahead

Iowa, like Missouri, should be a Republican Party mainstay moving forward, especially now that the Democrat Party has abandoned the practice of competing for the votes of those responsible for feeding America. Iowa doesn’t have enough big cities, and only a couple insane college counties (such as Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa), so Democrats are going to find themselves hard-pressed to make a comeback. To further complicate things in that regard, Iowa is now operating with the cleanest voter rolls it has had in decades.

I don’t know that it is reasonable to expect 13%-plus margins for folks not named Trump, but there is plenty of work to be done to see if they can be maintained; for starters, getting rid of same-day voter registration, which severely taints elections in Iowa’s political cousin, Wisconsin, should be the top priority, as should creating stronger Voter ID requirements in line with Missouri’s. Avoiding legislative discussions about Ranked Choice Voting and Automatic Voter Registration is also necessary.

---

Final Grade and Closing Commentary

The Top 5 Election Integrity Targets in Iowa are (in no order):

· Polk County

· Dallas County

· Scott County

· Johnson County

· Black Hawk County

Iowa receives a Grade of 1 - Lowest Concern – based on its organic election trends, acceptable election laws, and lack of coordinated effort to manipulate the 2024 election results. While its identification laws need work and other changes should occur, Iowa’s status as a small electoral state and the positive items listed above qualify it for its Grade of 1.

Demerit: Same Day Voter Registration

---

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.