January 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net shift Since December: R+11,869
Florida appears to be turning the corner on being consistently redder than Texas, and continues to highlight the dramatic party registration advantage favoring Republican voters among transplants from other states.
Duval County has shifted to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage, which suggests Georgia is also getting redder.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds.
IOWA
Net Shift Since December: R+799
Another consistent monthly gain for Republicans in a two-time Obama state. Iowa is no longer playable for Democrats at the state level, but will have two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net Shift Since December: D+698
As a reminder, I track the total voter roll for Pennsylvania in order to maintain continuity going back decades. The state is much closer in terms of active registrations.
It is time to stop hyperventilating without digging into details; Pennsylvania moved toward Democrats by 698 net in December, but outside of Philadelphia County, which moved D+1,002 net in the month, the state’s rightward drift continues. It is possible Philadelphia has been targeted for voter registration drives, but I can’t verify that without further research.
Democrats have lost roughly 40% of the registration advantage they held in November 2024, when Trump won the state comfortably. There is no sign the white working class of Pennsylvania will revert to Democrat roots present in the data.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net Shift Since December: R+3,063
Republicans began the New Year on the one yard line, trailing Democrats by just 59 total registrations in the full voter roll, while already leading the active voter roll. They have already taken over the overall lead within the first two weeks of January, and the first-of-month report for February will reflect that. It is the first time in history Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in the state.
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina one of two Republican Senate seats at risk in the 2026 midterms.
The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by at least 5 points. Republicans continue to lose ground in Mecklenburg and Wake Counties, going backward by a net of 729 in both combined last month. If they got serious about denting Democrat margins in those two counties, they’d dominate the state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net Shift Since December: None
New Hampshire releases quarterly updates and isn’t due for another until February 2026.
The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for that Senate seat.
ARIZONA
Net Shift Since December: D+314
My unofficial numbers for Arizona registrations include constant updates for Maricopa and Pima Counties, which I have access to. There is sometimes a wide variance between my figures and the numbers periodically reported by the Secretary of State. Recent election cycles include a January statewide update, so I suspect all 15 counties will be reported shortly and reflect the continuous GOP registration gains for next month.
December was a sleepy month; Democrats picked up 314 net, driven primarily by a net pickup of 341 in Maricopa County; however, Pima County drifted slightly rightward. Statistical noise any way you slice it, but there is no blue undercurrent in this state if you don’t see it manifest in Pima.
NEVADA
Net Shift Since December: D+1,026
The month represents a strong net pickup for Democrats, who have lost the overall lead in voter registration they held for nearly two decades since the 2024 election; however, there is no net change in Washoe County for the month (to the exact number), so the +288 Democrat pickup in Clark County overall is likely statistical noise, especially since their advantage expressed as a percentage dropped by a tenth of a point with changes to the overall roll (increase in independent voters).
Five counties, all won heavily by Trump, report fewer total voter registrations than they did at the time of last month’s report; therefore, my assumption is that the Democrat pickup is based largely on voter registration maintenance in the deep red counties, disproportionately impacting the dominant party, more than it is a statewide reflection of diminishing Republican strength.
CONCLUSION
Of six states reporting updates, three favored Republicans and three favored Democrats. Statistics in Florida and North Carolina suggest major Republican advantages are found through the registrations of new transplants. Iowa shows a sustained Republican advantage confirming staying power in the Upper Midwest. Very little discernible change detected in Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Nevada.
We will see registration data pick up ahead of primaries and have a better idea how the future is shaping up. Bettors on Polymarket seem to understand the value of voter registration by party in the long run, as shown by the likely GOP nominee being the favorite to win in 2028:
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Nice to see Republicans on the move. Now we just need to get these people out to vote during the mid-terms. If the Dims take the House, it's over, because the RINOs will side with the Dims every time.
In my locality, I've heard that the Democrat party is attending citizenship swearing in ceremonies to register people for that party. Historically, one point of immigration was Philadelphia. I imagine they have an active recruitment drive as well.