July 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary.

Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net shift since June: R+50,184

• Incredibly, Florida continues to expand its registration advantage rapidly, now approaching R+10% statewide.

• 64 of 67 counties are more Republican or less Democrat than they were in November 2024 (Trump +13.1% win). Two counties, Hillsborough and Miami-Dade, have flipped to GOP registration advantage since then.

• Duval County continues rightward registration trend, suggesting positive trajectory in adjacent Georgia for GOP candidates.

• Florida would produce a mid-double digits margin for either President Trump or Vice President Vance in an election held today.

Note: I’ve readjusted the starting point for Florida’s November 2024 registration values by using the totals compiled at the end of October in official state documents, rather than at the start of early voting.

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IOWA

Net shift since June: R+800

• Iowa approaches R+11% in this month’s update, with all blue counties substantially diminished in Democrat advantage since November. This is important, because two of the most important House races next fall will come down to IA-1 and IA-3, both narrowly held by GOP members last fall.

• Overall, 56 of 99 counties are more Republican or less Democrat than they were in November, but this fluctuation is typical of nearby states, particularly in the rural areas. Most, if not all, of these waning Republican registration indexes constitute statistical noise, such as Marion County from R+32.4% to R+32.1%, or Taylor County from R+48.2% to R+48.0%, and occur when rolls are cleaned or voters move back to independent registration (more voters pick a party due to the importance of the Iowa caucuses).

• Iowa’s continued GOP lean portends good outcomes for Wisconsin, which trends with Iowa.

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PENNSYLVANIA

Net shift since June: R+2,923

• As anticipated, GOP registration gains are back on track after municipal primaries came to an end. These shifts are much more drastic on the active voter roll, where Democrats maintain a tiny lead of just 74,606 (compared to 175,292 on the total roll). I use the total roll for my figures for continuity of data going back to 2004 for my analytical methods.

• Incredibly, 67 of 67 counties in Pennsylvania are more Republican or less Democrat than they were for the November 2024 election.

• In a fair election under these numbers, President Trump would likely carry Pennsylvania by over 5 points; J.D. Vance would carry the state comfortably as well. Of note, Michigan (which does not register voters by party) mirrors Pennsylvania for the past 8 decades and is certainly on the same trajectory as found here.

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NORTH CAROLINA

Net shift since June: R+2,074

• No mercy for Democrats in North Carolina, where 100 of 100 counties are shifted more Republican or less Democrat than they were in 2024. It is important for Wake and Mecklenburg GOP affiliates to erode the Democrat advantages as much as possible in those states given the Democrats’ inability to compete elsewhere.

• Could you imagine being Thom Tillis and not finding yourself capable of running in a state with these conditions present? Granted, these figures are more accurately aligned with presidential preference, but whoever replaces Tillis benefits from an environment like this.

• The next GOP presidential candidate, if these trends persist, should carry North Carolina by 5 or more points.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

• 10 of 10 counties are shifted Republican since November 2024.

• New Hampshire, if this trend persists, will come down to the wire in 2028 for its 4 electoral votes.

• This state does not update monthly, so figures are the same since May.

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ARIZONA

Net shift since June: R+474

• Arizona is due for an official Secretary of State update in all 15 counties, and it should bring a huge move in favor of the GOP given the pro-GOP shifts in the two largest counties (Maricopa and Pima), which make up three-quarters of the statewide vote together.

• 15 of 15 Arizona counties have a Republican registration lean since November 2024 as the state moves back into the reliably Republican category in presidential races.

• Continued party registration dominance will make it difficult for Democrat statewide office holders to hold their positions next fall, despite the massively corrupted system of elections present in the state.

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NEVADA

Net shift since June: D+1,814

• The only GOP disappointment in this battlegrounds listing is Nevada, but a look inside the numbers suggests the registration battle is settling after voter roll maintenance. If the state were legitimately shifting left, the GOP wouldn’t have widened their advantage in Washoe County (metro Reno, R+45 in June) and mostly stood their ground in Clark County (D+98 in June).

• Most of the backsliding for June can be attributed to Lyon County, which dumped thousands of voters and roughly 2,000 Republicans last month in voter roll maintenance.

• Clark remains the biggest show in town, and it is well to the right of where it was in November, when Trump won Nevada by 3.1%.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.