Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Florida (30 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 30

Population (2020 Census): 21,538,187 (+2,736,877 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: ~23,000,000

-

Partisanship

Governor Party: Republican

State House Majority: Republican

State Senate Majority: Republican

U.S. House Delegation: 20 Republicans, 8 Democrats

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans

-

Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White, not Hispanic: 51.5% (-6.4% since 2010)

Black: 15.1% (-0.9% since 2010)

Latino, any race: 26.5% (+4.0% since 2010)

Other: 6.9% (+3.3% since 2010)

-

Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 13

Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +3.4%

Times Democrat: 10

Last: Barack Obama, 2012, +0.9%

-

Presidential Election Characteristics

·      Florida is a very strong state for incumbents.  No incumbent has lost the state since Jimmy Carter in 1980, and even George H.W. Bush carried it in a disastrous 1992 campaign.  Prior to 1980, the last incumbent to lose Florida was Herbert Hoover in 1932.

·      Republican strongholds are in the Panhandle, and along both coasts until the Atlantic Coast reaches Palm Beach County.  The Tampa Bay area is politically moderate along the Gulf Coast.

·      Democrat strongholds are dwindling thanks to the coalition shift underway with Latino voters trending heavily Republican.  Broward County is the only Democrat stronghold with a crushing vote margin remaining, and even it is diminishing in strength.

·      Florida receives a high number of working-class whites from the Midwest, and they have helped trend the state into a Republican stronghold in short order.

-

2020 Review

Official: Donald Trump +3.4% (371,686 votes)

Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +8.1% (855,544)

I believe Florida was a major target for election theft.  Despite a major shift in party registration favoring Republicans (54 of 67 counties showed a Republican trend between the 2016 and 2020 elections), Joe Biden outperformed Barack Obama for net new votes in one election cycle in the same election Donald Trump set a record for new votes gained in one cycle, adding more than 1.05 million from 2016, with many coming at the expense of the old, Latino-heavy Democrat coalition.

Miami-Dade County is the only county in the Top 50 of national population in which Biden in 2020 had fewer votes than Clinton in 2016.  This does not mean it was fraud free, but it clearly was not manipulated to the extent other major counties nationwide were.  When Biden failed to win it by the requisite margin for statewide victory, Trump had Florida in the bag.  Biden finished nearly 700,000 votes ahead of Trump’s 2016 winning total of votes.

Florida’s rightward lurch, combined with Pennsylvania and Michigan moving in the opposite direction (left) of Florida for the first time since 1928 is what tipped me off to something being horribly wrong in 2020.

-

2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >10% official, >15% clean

In this brave new world of elections in which massive election manipulation of Texas is laughed away, Florida will replace the Lone Star State as the “king” red state and will likely be won by Donald Trump by more votes and a higher margin of victory than Texas will be.  Florida is not being contested by the Biden campaign, because they know the power of a coalition shift in which their core voters (blacks and Latinos) are diminishing in voting power, and even Democrat-run urban counties are up for grabs.  Do not be surprised to see Trump win Palm Beach, Hillsborough, and Miami-Dade Counties outright.

Trump’s inevitable win in Florida will upset the fact that incumbents almost always win the state, underscoring the fact that Biden will not be perceived in 2024 as legitimately elected in 2020.  Florida now belongs to a faction of states that are red and will be recognized as baked into the GOP electoral cake for decades to come.

Look for Trump with 6.3 million to 6.6 million votes, and for Biden at less than 5 million legitimately, but likely around 5.5 to 5.7 million with the extra padding.  This major move to the right will put serious gravity on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin moving right, making them much harder to rip off with any believability.  For the first time in many years, Florida will not leave patriots in an anxious mess on Election Night.

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!