Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Maryland (10 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 10

Population (2020 Census): 6,177,224 (+403,672 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 6,200,000

-

Partisanship

Governor Party: Democrat

State House Majority: Democrat

State Senate Majority: Democrat

U.S. House Delegation: 7 Democrats, 1 Republican

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats

-

Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 49.8%

Black: 29.8%

Hispanic: 10.6%

Other: 9.8%

-

Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 6

Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +2.9%

Times Democrat: 17

Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +33.2%

-

Presidential Election Characteristics

·      Maryland became a member of the “blue wall” in 1992, meaning it has an eight-election Democrat streak ongoing.

·      The state has 10 electoral votes, and has had the exact same number of electoral votes in each decade since the 1960s, suggesting a consistent balancing of population growth relative to other states – neither surging in growth or losing population like most blue states.

·      Democrat margins in the state’s two largest counties, Montgomery and Prince George’s, are crushing, netting a margin for Biden in 2020 of 660,465 alone.  The City of Baltimore and Baltimore County (separate from the city) provided another 294,093 together.

·      Black voters and federal workers of all races make Maryland a Democrat cakewalk in statewide elections.

-

2020 Review

Official: Joe Biden +33.2% (1,008,609 votes)

Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +28.6% (812,837 votes)

Maryland is a 2020 Biden blowout, and one in which Trump gained very few net new votes over 2016 (33,245), even losing votes in several counties since his first run.  Despite winning 14 of 24 (including Baltimore City) county equivalents, the Trump counties provide relatively little margin to the wipeouts in the south of the state piled up by Biden.  Frederick County appears to be a Biden flip thanks to “2020 details.”  Maryland is one of just four states I believe would have moved left anyway from its 2016 margin of Clinton +26.4%, but not all the way left to the certified 33.2% margin.

My analytical method spots almost 200,000 likely fraudulent ballots statewide, led by Montgomery County with a minimum of 33,569.  Notably, Baltimore City had a 2020 presidential election with normal trending, with no 2020 fraud evident at the county level.

-

2024 Preview

Prediction: Joe Biden >+30% official, <25% clean

Maryland will be a Democrat call as soon as polls close, for any Democrat nominee.  I do believe the state will inch back to the right a few points with Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties likely to weaken for Biden with his share of the black vote.

Trump will clear 1,000,000 votes, not a feat for the party given that George W. Bush was over the mark in 2004, and Biden will most likely eclipse 2,000,000 votes and approach 2.1 million, even with black vote losses in southern Maryland.  Maryland operates Automatic Voter Registration, relies heavily on mail-in balloting, and has a surplus of white federal workers who, thanks to their allegiance to government jobs and growth, fail to offset a loyal black Democrat vote in Baltimore, Montgomery County, and Prince George’s County as they did twice in the 1980s for Republican nominees.

Previous Installments

Florida

South Carolina

Delaware

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!