Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Kentucky (8 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
KENTUCKY
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 8
Population (2020 Census): 4,505,836 (+166,469 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 4,600,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 5 Republicans, 1 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 85.0%
Latino: 4.6%
Black: 7.9%
Other: 2.5%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 13
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +25.9%
Times Democrat: 10
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +1.0%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Kentucky was once a hardcore Democrat state, backing just three Republican presidential nominees from 1856 through 1928. As the state moderated, it became a perfect national bellwether from 1956 through 2004 before becoming solidly Republican and no longer predictive. The state now, for the first time in history, reflects a Republican voter registration advantage.
· While the state is known for ticket splitting in state elections, only two counties show Democrat strength in presidential races – Fayette and Jefferson, home to Lexington (and the University of Kentucky) and Louisville, respectively.
· The state has traditional Republican strength in the suburbs surrounding Louisville and Cincinnati, which lies across the Ohio River in Ohio, but the enormous statewide margins in the past two decades have come from blue-dog Democrat crossovers in rural (especially eastern) Kentucky, which are also found in Ohio, West Virginia, Tennessee, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +25.9% (554,172 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +34.1% (684,442 votes in margin)
Trump’s 2020 win in Kentucky resembles his Ohio victory - significantly large, but to the left of his 2016 margin despite all indicators suggesting the region’s blue-collar states should have moved to the right, which would have solidified Pennsylvania and Michigan for Trump. My analytics suggest Jefferson, Fayette, and Kenton Counties were outfitted with the most fraudulent ballots, enough to push the state more than 8 points off its likely trajectory. Despite Kentucky moving eight points more Republican in registration from 2016, and Trump adding more net new votes than his first run there, and two consecutive cycles of Democrat vote loss, Joe Biden gained 143,620 net new votes over Clinton’s 2016 total, while Trump only added 123,675.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+30% official, 36-40% clean
Kentucky will enter the 2024 election with a Republican voter registration advantage for the first time in history, meaning it should organically produce a wider Republican margin than the 34.1% my analytics suggest should have occurred in a fair race in 2020. Trump will most certainly hold all 118 counties he won in 2020 and flirt with the 1.5 million vote mark. Kentucky will be called for Trump as soon as polls close and the margin will be worth noting, because if it is substantial enough, it will be a big “tell” for how the vote should shake out in more crucial states.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 120 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
I’m surprised there are not more takers for your excellent work at the county level in Kentucky. Although we know that success breeds complacency. If they knew what was really happening they might care a whole lot more.
You’re doing a great work Seth!