Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 3
Population (2020 Census): 689,545 (+87,822 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 700,000
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Partisanship
U.S. House Delegation: 1 Democrat (Delegate)
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 39.6%
Black: 41.4%
Hispanic: 11.3%
Other: 7.8%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 0
Times Democrat: 15
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +86.8%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Washington, D.C., started voting in presidential elections in 1964 thanks to the 23rd Amendment, which was ratified in 1961. It is not permitted to have more electoral votes than the state with the smallest total of electoral votes (3).
· No race has ever been closer than 56.5%, with Richard Nixon taking 21.6% of the vote for the Republican Party in 1972 in a 49-state landslide.
· Black voters and federal workers dominate the district’s election landscape.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +86.8% (298,737 vote margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: same
The 2020 election results in Washington, D.C., show no indication of election manipulation at the district-level, although this could change with a look inside the precincts. Biden’s gain of 34,493 net new votes was not a Democrat record, and his margin of victory was slightly smaller than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 as a percentage of the vote.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >80%
No group of voters is going to vote to send its jobs away, or even worse, have them eliminated. Donald Trump is exactly the type of presidential candidate one would hope would not attract the votes of those inside the bureaucracies of Washington, D.C. For every new black voter he attracts, he may lose two white Republican establishment think tank voters, as well as any new resident or voter of the district, which also uses Automatic Voter Registration. Washington, D.C., will not even be called dramatically, but as an afterthought, with Trump likely to gather between 6-8% of the vote. With enough defections from Black voters, Biden may become the first Democrat nominee to fall beneath 90% support since John Kerry in 2004. Trump, for reasons listed above, will not approach Nixon’s level of support seen in 1972, nor George H.W. Bush’s 14.3% seen in 1988.
Washington, D.C., statehood would be a terrible mistake.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Thank you, as always.