Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Iowa (6 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

Capt. Seth Keshel

May 25, 2024

IOWA

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 6

Population (2020 Census): 3,190,369 (+144,014 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 3,250,000

Partisanship

Governor Party: Republican

State House Majority: Republican

State Senate Majority: Republican

U.S. House Delegation: 4 Republicans

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans

Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 82.7%

Latino: 6.8%

Black: 4.1%

Other: 6.4%

Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 13

Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +8.2%

Times Democrat: 10

Last: Barack Obama, 2012, +5.8%

Presidential Election Characteristics

· Iowa has long been a moderate Upper Midwestern state famous for its early test of the electorate in presidential primaries, but is now in the process of a hard right adjustment. It backed 6 out of 7 presidential winners between 1992 and 2016, missing narrowly for George W. Bush in 2000 and tipping into his column in 2004. Incredibly, Iowa voted right of Texas in 2016 and 2020 as the region embraced Trumpian populism.

· Conservative counties dominate western Iowa along the Missouri River, while along the Mississippi River in the east, old school Democrat counties are losing loyalty to that party and rapidly transforming the state into a Republican Party stronghold, just 12 years after being won by Barack Obama for a second consecutive time.

· Even with slightly bloated results, Biden carried just six counties in Iowa in 2020, and none by more than 18.4% except for Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. Polk County, which contains most of metro Des Moines, makes up just over 15% of the statewide vote and is easily overwhelmed by a rapidly reddening countryside.

2020 Review

Official: Donald Trump +8.2% (138,611 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +11.8% (192,560 votes in margin)

Trump carried Iowa by 1.2% less than he did in 2016, despite a gain in votes substantially larger than his own gain in 2016. Most of southern and eastern Iowa reflects a clean trend from 2016 or low indication of election manipulation, but the western Republican counties are bloated for Biden, and Dallas and Polk Counties lead the pack in likely phantom ballots. I have Polk at 11,250 high for Biden.

Diagram

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2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >+12% official, >+15 clean

All 99 counties in Iowa, as of this writing, have moved in favor of the Republican Party in party registration since the 2020 race, including the entirety of the Des Moines metro area, as well as the counties containing major college campuses like Johnson and Story. Iowa has moved from a 1.0% Republican advantage in 2020 to an astounding R+9.8% and will certainly clear double digits with ease by election time. This year’s race is shaping up to be the biggest Republican presidential landslide since Richard Nixon carried the state by 17.1% in 1972. Iowa’s Republican voter registration surge should give the Democrats ominous feelings for Wisconsin, which is Iowa’s political cousin without party registration, and even in Minnesota, which would likely be in Trump’s column if not for entrenched cheating.

It won’t take long to call Iowa for Trump, and a big surge in the northeast should be a tell that Wisconsin is going to be extremely difficult to steal. Iowa’s days as a swing state are long gone.

If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 99 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.

Previous Installments

Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!