Know Your 2024 Electoral College: California (54 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
CALIFORNIA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 54
Population (2020 Census): 39,538,223 (+2,284,267 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 38,500,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 40 Democrats, 12 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 38.3%
Latino: 39.4%
Black: 6.4%
Other: 15.9%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +3.6%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +29.2%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· California, our most populous state, is the mother ship of the Democrat machine, giving that party exactly 20% of the electoral votes it needs to win a presidential election, and providing a massive deluge of “popular votes” that positions any Democrat nominee to have “won the popular vote” even in the event of an Electoral College loss, thereby providing a narrative that delegitimizes Republican victories.
· The state’s shift to Democrat powerhouse began with the end of Cold War politics and shot into the stratosphere thanks to the prevalence of the entertainment industry, decades of low-income, third-world immigration (legal and illegal), and remains at highly unbalanced levels due to the mastery of election maladministration and the exodus of countless Republicans every year to other states.
· California backed every Republican presidential candidate from 1968 through 1988, but flipped for Bill Clinton in 1992 and hasn’t had a race inside 10 points since 2004. Los Angeles County now certifies more ballots than all but 11 states, and recent tweaks to elections have flipped longtime Republican strongholds like Orange County to Democrats.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +29.2% (5,103,821 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +20.2% (3,144,187 votes in margin)
With so much corruption spread over such a large space and encompassing so many citizens, it is difficult to even begin to estimate potential fraudulent votes in California. My estimates remain lenient and still, they suggest Trump should have carried Orange and Riverside Counties in the south, and others throughout the central spine of the state, and been much closer in some counties that would likely back the Democrat nominee due to Republican depopulation, like San Diego County. The irony of California’s 2020 returns is that Trump’s gain in a state that lost population in the year approaching the 2020 election for the first time since 1900 was 1,522,619, a gain just shy of Obama’s gain in 2008 that pushed the state 14.1% to the left from its 2004 result. Such a gain, particularly in consideration of so many registered Republicans leaving the state (verifiable through Secretary of State data), is only possible by flipping much of the Democrat Latino working class, thereby diminishing the likely of Biden vote growth from Clinton.
My estimates for fraudulent votes in the worst six counties:
· Los Angeles, 628,885
· Orange, 164,009
· San Diego, 159,650
· Riverside, 130,340
· Sacramento, 109,808
· San Bernardino, 78,859
Various data points statewide suggest a substantial rightward lurch should have taken place, such as no apparent ballot harvesting apparatuses operating in Santa Ana (Orange County), or the fact that Trump won Westminster outright, or even the massive decline in Democrat support in 80% Hispanic Imperial County, in the state’s far southeastern corner. As it is, I can account for what appears to be nearly 2 million imaginary ballots used to prop up the 81 million votes national narrative. To expect Biden to come in with a gain nearly a million higher than peak Barack Obama, when Trump matched his record outburst, is laughable. California’s true 2020 disposition was likely closer to 20% in favor of Biden, and not 30%, and if we could unpack three decades of urban election rigging, California is much closer than we are led to believe. The work of Mitch Clemmons and others in California has corroborated these findings and then some, and it is some of the most admirable work in all the land seeing that many have given up on the California dream.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+20% official, <15% clean
This is the section in which I must manage your expectations, and hopefully that is why you find my journal worthwhile. I attended the San Diego boat parade in September 2020 and saw the enthusiasm firsthand. I understand as well as you do that things aren’t as they appear in California, but here’s a hard-to-swallow pill:
The gap between Trump and Biden in certified results four years ago was 5,103,821 ballots. That is:
· 488.1 times wider than the gap in Arizona
· 433.3 times wider than the gap in Georgia
· 246.8 times wider than the gap in Wisconsin
· 2.56 times wider than the gap in New York
You get the idea. It’s not that President Trump doesn’t love California, it’s that California is the mother ship for all that is wrong with elections, combining Texas’s zeal for early voting with Oregon’s foolishness for mail-in balloting, with its own toxic combination of massively Democrat-favorable demographics (less than 40% white, large East Asian population, and a poverty-stricken Hispanic working class piled into some of the largest cities in America), Automatic Voter Registration, which is massively corrupt, and its own homegrown recipe for ballot harvesting, which we all laughed about a decade ago before the Democrats flipped just about every office in a century-old Republican stronghold, Orange County. Not only did they mess with the home of “The Duke,” they’ve essentially given a generic Democrat a layup against a generic Republican for the national popular vote narrative and are probably on pace to get Biden 12 million or more ballots this fall, if primaries are any indication. Steve Garvey never had a chance, a problem compounded by his campaign’s unwillingness to discuss the main reason why Republicans can’t seem to ever even fluke themselves into a statewide victory anywhere on the west coast.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Trump approach or surpass Obama’s 2012 victory total (7,854,285), which seems quaint in retrospect thanks to all that has progressed in mega-blue California in just a decade, but don’t expect it to be a photo finish year. California continues to show movement toward Democrats in party registration, albeit very slightly, but I predict the Hispanic working class will back Trump in droves, perhaps flipping some counties in the heart of the Golden State. California will certify for Biden by a reduced margin from 2020, but one likely over 20 points, and count ballots until Christmas no matter how Biden fares throughout the rest of the country. We need intervention here, but don’t give up the fight. It’s always darkest just before “the Don.”
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 58 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Hi Seth
Do you plan do do NC ?
Thanks for your work! Great stuff.
Thanks