Mamdani Is No Slam Dunk, So Hold Off on South Florida

Andrew Cuomo is about to put on a master class in political sabotage. Wait and see.

Update: Cuomo has now dropped all plans to run as an Independent. Updated article released.

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Like lightning, a Middle East ceasefire occurred and the warmonger right and Trump-hating left moved right on to the next shiny thing – New York City and the results of the Democrat Mayor primary. I’ve seen nothing but eulogies, with Floridians bracing for a people hurricane and those nostalgic about the Big Apple declaring the patient dead before the General Election even happens on November 4.

From an election integrity outlook, memes and sentiments describing the failures of American immigration and immigration enforcement policy don’t apply here. We care about two things:

· That the race was fair and reflects the will of the voters. Obviously, we don’t like the corrupted voter rolls and excessive absentee balloting, but I don’t have any evidence cheating was taking place in this race.

· The fact that Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) stands out like a sore thumb and for requiring an extra week to tabulate the second round of votes, would be a topic of ridicule had Andrew Cuomo not conceded the race already.

Here is a basic explanation of what RCV is and how it works. It is only used in federal races in two states – Maine and Alaska – and was installed in the latter for the specific purpose of keeping Lisa Murkowski in office.

This article may give you hope, and if you’re a New Yorker, could give you reason to hold off on South Florida for now. Zohran Mamdani may not win in November, and here are the reasons why:

· New York City has been known to play ball with GOP mayors. Rudy Giuliani is one example, and he is of the Trump variety. Michael Bloomberg followed him up and was in office as recently as 2013, although he’s a much different politician than Giuliani was. Either way, you’re not going to find a 70-30 Democrat split in the five boroughs in this race.

· The five boroughs shifted heavily for Trump in 2024, and are each less Democrat by voter registration than they were in November.

Ranked Choice Voting, unfortunately, will not sabotage a Democrat for the first time, because it’s not used in the general.

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Exercise

New Yorkers are looking at a five-candidate field in November:

· Mamdani – Democrat nominee

· Curtis Sliwa – Republican nominee, founder of the Guardian Angels

· Cuomo – minor party affiliated Independent

· Jim Walden – former federal prosecutor and Independent

· Eric Adams – current mayor and Independent

In the last election, here’s how it turned out between Adams and Sliwa as the two major candidates, collecting 93.9% of the vote together:

Adams 67.0% (753,801)

Sliwa 26.9% (302,680)

Sliwa is a known quantity and not even in the top three when it comes to casual conversation in this horse race. While it is conceivable that the three Democrats could ticket split enough to give Sliwa the win with 30% of the vote, I think it will be a race between Mamdani and Cuomo.

There were 1.125 million votes in the 2021 race; New Yorkers wanting to avoid Mamdani will need to hope for higher turnout than that. As of right now, Mamdani has 432,305 votes with 93% counted in the Democrat primary. He will probably wind up with over 450,000 votes once the primary choice round is tabulated. That is going to be his floor for November, given that his base will show up fiercely. His primary share will dwarf Sliwa’s 2021 general total by over 147,000.

This means Cuomo will need to target 600,000 or more votes to feel safe. He has absolutely no shot at coming up with this total on his own with turnout of his base supporters, which will be worth about 250,000 to 300,000 by my count and belief that he will lose some of his primary voters who are anti-Republican voters to Mamdani (have to vote Mamdani so the GOP can’t win).

Adams, the incumbent, is unpopular with Democrats for a variety of reasons and didn’t even try for their nomination. Still, as the sitting mayor, he has significant influence and it wouldn’t surprise me if he drops out and joins coalitions with Cuomo to throw his support against Mamdani, who will have an energetic base both for and against him. Moderate urban Republicans will likely abandon Sliwa to back Cuomo, perhaps carving away a quarter of his 2021 support.

Here’s what Cuomo is likely to start off with:

Base Votes 275,000

Sliwa Base Votes 75,000

Adams Base Votes (if he drops) 125,000

Total 475,000

This means the former New York governor will need to be all over Staten Island, northeast Queens, and Southeast Brooklyn looking to cobble up moderate and conservative support, meaning he’s going to crack down on immigration enforcement rhetoric, “saving New York,” and maybe even make some major concessions to Trump’s emerging base of minority support to get in the ballgame.

It’s an uphill climb, but the presence of three big Democrats and a weak GOP brand in the five boroughs makes this possible for Cuomo. Alliances and partnerships loom incredibly large.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.