March 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

The annihilation of the Democrat Party continues at an incredible rate, highlighted by the focus states within - FL, PA, IA, NH, NC, AZ, and NV

Author’s Note: Voter registration by party analysis is my specialty and is the most accurate of all indicators for Presidential elections; it allowed me to call all 56 races for electoral votes correctly last November. This data has been ignored by mainstream pollsters who now find themselves verging on extinction. Take a look at my analysis of Pennsylvania to get an idea of how voter registration by party analysis looks.

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FLORIDA

Why should we care about Florida, which President Trump won by 13.1%, pushing it to perpetual red state status? Because Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan almost always move together, like last year when Florida’s obvious Republican surge had working-class coattails in the Midwest.

Republicans have netted another 168,370 gain in registrations over Democrats since the election in November. The changes in key counties are below, and none is more important than Duval County, because it has tracked perfectly with Georgia (which does not have party registration) for two decades:

Trump, or J.D. Vance, would win Palm Beach County in an election today and possibly bring Broward County inside 10 points, while carrying Duval County, and by extension, Georgia.

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IOWA

Another safe red state, but one worth tracking because of how it aligns with Wisconsin, one of the most important states of the past decade. Notably, Ann Selzer ended her career last year because she refused to understand all 99 counties were more Republican by registration than they were in 2020 (or she did a favor to the political bureaucracy, which is more likely).

Iowa is the only state in this release that is technically less Republican than it was four months ago by percentage, but the GOP actually has a lead of 17,988 more than they did in November. The index is down less than a tenth of a point thanks to a flood of independents likely added with same day registration last Election Day. This, despite the technicality, suggests Wisconsin is moving in the right direction, though it is unlikely to manifest in the Supreme Court race next month.

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PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania is becoming Ohio before our very eyes, and the Democrat free fall that began more than a decade ago continues on with no end in sight. Since just November, Democrats have lost another 105,949 net registrations to the GOP, which is within 100,000 if considering only active registrations (I consider inactive and active in Pennsylvania for the sake of data continuity):

Even if these numbers were the final ones prior to the 2028 election (they will get much redder), they all but guarantee a Vance win in the state, likely by a comfortable margin against anyone but Josh Shapiro, who certainly wanted Harris to lose his state.

With the Democrats having lost the white working-class, and now quick about the work of losing the minority working-class, the damage at the county level is horrific. Below, the atrophy in urban areas is evident, and I’ve even tabbed Northampton County, a key bellwether (along with Erie) as well on its way to a Republican registration lead.

Pennsylvania will almost certainly have a GOP registration lead for the 2028 election. Don’t forget, Michigan sits left of Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992 and moves with it.

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NORTH CAROLINA

A few more years of the endless GOP registration trend that began in Obama’s first term should finally flush the North Carolina is a swing state narrative. Unfortunately, state-level politics are plagued with elected Democrats who keep the voter rolls polluted and resist commonsense reforms (like Voter ID for the longest time). North Carolina is on pace to flip to a GOP registration advantage this year (and already has when considering only active registrations):

Democrats can’t win U.S. Senate or Presidential races without getting maximum damage out of their two monster blue counties - Mecklenburg (metro Charlotte) and Wake (metro Raleigh). Those are not moving in the right direction for the rudderless Democrats:

Trump or Vance would win North Carolina by over 5 points in a race today, and the picture gets rosier by the minute for Thom Tillis, who will be on the hot seat for reelection to the U.S. Senate in a year.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Surprise, surprise. I told everyone it was in play last year, only to be scoffed at and told to review the polls. The race finished in an unimpressive Harris +2.8% victory, the only state without Automatic Voter Registration she won. Since then, New Hampshire has netted another 9,730 net new Republican registrations over the Democrats.

J.D. Vance will have a real shot at peeling back these 4 electoral votes for the first GOP presidential win since 2000 in the next presidential race, and I consider it likely the GOP will pick up this U.S. Senate seat in 2026 if Chris Sununu is the GOP nominee.

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ARIZONA

Moving out west, Katie Hobbs needs to pour another Scotch as she watches every county move further to the Republican right thanks to the Latino working-class realignment and the consolidation of the urban Republican base in the two major counties, Maricopa and Pima, which together account for three-quarters of the statewide vote.

Arizona, after tightening for Trump’s first two races, is now redder than it has been at any point this millennium. Maricopa County, which Trump won in 2024 (and should have won in 2020), has the same registration index as the state (R+7.2%) and has emerged as a mirror in that regard for the statewide vote. Pima County, home to metro Tucson, is losing its ability to provide major Democrat margins:

Trump or Vance would probably win Arizona in the high single digits (see 2008 and 2012 presidential margins) in a race held today, but the most important task at the moment is sending Hobbs and her fellow Democrat statewide officials to the unemployment line so the legislature can get some real election reform bills through.

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NEVADA

For the first time since 2004, Nevada has flipped to a Republican voter registration advantage, albeit an incredibly small one that could be rescinded in next month’s follow-on post. The flimsy Democrat lead from the election has disappeared faster than a stack of chips at a Blackjack table, and if Arizona is any indicator, this trend will accelerate for the GOP.

Seven of every eight votes statewide are cast in Clark and Washoe Counties (home to Las Vegas and Reno, respectively), and both of those have rightward traction:

Trump’s lead, thanks to his improvement with minority voters, was too big to steal. Sam Brown’s, in his race for U.S. Senate, was not. These leads need to continue to pile up and Governor Joe Lombardo needs to get serious about making sure his state is no longer one of the worst for elections in America. If these things happen, Nevada is a safe Republican state for the foreseeable future (like it used to be).

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CONCLUSION

Here are a few caveats:

• It’s only March 2025

• Many changes since November are due to voter roll purges, but even these always impact upcoming races in favor of the party that wound up better off

• A series of impactful geopolitical events, or a black swan, can send voter registration in the other direction

With these things said, if you’re hoping to see all the pieces come together for 2026, and then for 2028 with J.D. Vance, then you are seeing exactly what you would want to see. If I were assembling a much broader piece, I’d show you massive registration shifts favoring Republicans in New Jersey, New York, and most other states registering voters by party. After all, it is the most accurate indicator of future partisan performance, especially in federal races, which loom large in 2026.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.