March 2026 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds
My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.
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Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.
Last month’s report can be found here.
FLORIDA
Net Shift Since February: R+10,921
At some point, the GOP needs to put a nationwide movement together to divert transplants to Georgia or Pennsylvania. The Republican advantage is about to hit 1.5 million, just five years after the state flipped red by registration for the first time ever. Now they’re just running up the score.
Duval County has shifted to within a single point for the fading Democrat registration advantage, which suggests Georgia is also getting redder. Duval has shifted more than 8,000 net registrations toward the GOP since November 2024.
Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election.
IOWA
Net Shift Since February: R+196
A small Republican gain by raw number, a positive sign given the advent of primary season. This may slow or reverse in coming months depending on enthusiasm for primaries, but no sign of legitimate reversal in Iowa is present as of this month’s update.
Iowa is no longer playable for Democrats at the state level, but will have two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party.
PENNSYLVANIA
Net Shift Since February: D+2,469 Total, D+2,382 Active
The worst month for the GOP by registrations in recent memory, although not a total loss because both parties are gaining voters ahead of the primary. Unlike January (which saw a technical Democrat gain on the overall roll but a massive loss in the active roll), this time the Democrats gained a nearly equal amount on both.
Republicans did post an active voter roll gain in one of the month’s weeks, suggesting momentum is not unstoppable for Democrats and may be related to shifting around in advance of the May primary.
Democrats have still lost a ton of their dwindling advantage since the November 2024 election, and it is possible Pennsylvania is the new Ohio - a true national bellwether with an elastic independent voter base.
NORTH CAROLINA
Net Shift Since February: R+817
Mirroring Pennsylvania, primary season slowed the Republican voter registration gains; however, North Carolina still expanded marginally to the right (a positive sign that transplants are registering Republican in their new homes even outside of Florida).
With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley expected to be the Republican nominee.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Net Shift Since February: None
New Hampshire releases quarterly updates and isn’t due for another until May 2026.
The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for that Senate seat.
ARIZONA
Net Shift Since February: D+3,061
My unofficial numbers for Arizona registrations include constant updates for Maricopa and Pima Counties, which I have access to. We will likely receive a Secretary of State update in coming months to paint a full picture of the statewide trend.
Pursuant to the point above, Democrat gains this month come from Maricopa and Pima Counties. Republicans are adding new active registrations in large quantities in Maricopa County, but still being outpaced after years of dormancy from Democrats. I have no proof (yet), but am not confident these registrations are growing organically for that party (Democrats).
Expect Democrats to pull out all the stops to save Katie Hobbs and her cohort of corrupt statewide officers this fall.
NEVADA
Net Shift Since February: D+1,316
In the most back-and-forth state in this monthly update, Nevada shifts by 1,316 toward Democrats in February. They did this mostly with the reduction of Republicans statewide (-1,144), and not as a product of their own gains (+172).
Nevada shows a disappointing GOP performance outright. Republicans lost registrations almost everywhere, despite the rolls growing statewide. In Clark County, Democrats also lost membership, but Republican membership dropped by 958.
Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Always Excellent information & analysis, Captain K!!
Good article. Quick question: Do you think all the negative stuff about the elections people are spewing is having an impact on enthusiasm? Does it feel like the same playbook being played that was played in 2018 and 2022? I am only asking because it seems like it to me. The blue spots in Iowa what is there that it might be leaning blue or are these always blue areas?