May 2025 Voter Registration by Party Updates for Key 2026 and 2028 Battlegrounds

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this study, please see the March summary.

Last month’s report can be found here.

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FLORIDA

Net shift since April: R+28,403

Voter roll maintenance cuts registrations of both parties, but incredibly, Florida surges ahead, nearing R+9 overall. Duval County, the Georgia bellwether, continues to inch rightward in a positive sign. Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties continue on trajectory to have Republican registration advantages by the 2028 election.

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IOWA

Net shift since April: R+2,180

With maintenance complete, Republicans continue to build their lead in Iowa, which gives us not only good signs for the tight U.S. House races to come in 2026, but for the fate of the Upper Midwest (primarily Wisconsin) in the 2028 race.

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PENNSYLVANIA

Net shift since April: D+443

For the first time in recent memory, Pennsylvania took a step, albeit a minuscule one, to the left for a one-month change as Democrats outpaced Republicans in three weekly updates for April. I have no concern about this being a lasting shift, and wrote up the why last week to calm any nerves. This shift is primarily driven by heavy registration drives in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas, and should abate now that municipal primaries are over. Despite the temporary setback, Republicans gained in 46 of 67 counties last week.

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NORTH CAROLINA

Net shift since April: R+1,417

Republicans already lead in the active registrations in North Carolina, but I run these figures for the total roll, as I do with Pennsylvania, for the sake of continuity going back decades. Now that registration maintenance post-election has concluded, Mecklenburg and Wake Counties are beginning a slight drift leftward, but the rest of the state is collectively continuing to move rightward and is likely to have a GOP voter registration advantage overall prior to the 2026 midterms. North Carolina has a much rosier Republican forecast than Georgia does in the long run.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net shift since February: R+676

New Hampshire finally cranked out an update to its voter registration file, and it’s another net pickup for the GOP, pushing the state to an even R+5. This will need to continue for the 2028 GOP nominee to pick up the state’s four electoral votes because the independent vote here skews heavily left. This shift signifies not only GOP consolidation of the white working-class vote, but stability with more affluent suburban voters.

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ARIZONA

Net shift since April: R+4,988

I don’t need to wait for periodic Secretary of State updates to update Arizona’s file because I monitor the dashboards operated by Maricopa and Pima Counties to plug shifts in real time. Republicans are now out to a lead of +327,075, or 10.7% stronger than when Trump won Arizona comfortably six months ago. If the Maricopa Board of Supervisors ever got the hell out of the way and allowed Maricopa Recorder Justin Heap to do his job, Arizona would turn into a Florida-style R+9 state by midterms.

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NEVADA

Net shift since April: R+172

Democrats had temporarily shifted back into a lead by a whopping 2 (TWO) registrations in the April report thanks to Nevada’s rural counties, which are overwhelmingly Republican, running maintenance. That has since reversed, with Republicans inching back ahead, even while backtracking slightly in both Clark and Washoe Counties.

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Conclusion

Now in the Trump administration’s fourth month, there are once again no tangible signs that Americans are rejecting MAGA or reacting against Trump’s policies. The state to watch here in this next month is Pennsylvania to see if it will get back on track with its Republican realignment, which I would bet is likely to occur now that their municipal primaries have concluded. While these seven states are the most important for analyzing the 2028 election, I will likely include a handful of other states beginning next month.

For now, please share this information with your fake-news believing friends, who would absolutely, I’m confident of it, love to have a gifted subscription from the most steadfast supporters of my analytics and research (wink, wink, see below).

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.