Midterm Statistics Under Wartime Presidents Since WWII
I count 9 occasions since 1934 in which the sitting president faced the midterm electorate viewed as a “wartime President.” Here is what history has to say about the fate of the majority.
Since the beginning of the latest conflict in the Middle East, two questions have been woven together by commenters:
What do we do?
How will it impact short-term U.S. political dynamics?
Given the drastic domestic proposals posed by President Trump during his campaign, it is important to assess what prolonged American involvement in the Middle East could bring (anything more than airstrikes or materiel support). I hear some in the back saying, “No one is calling for ground troops,” and perhaps that will be the case. But once again, “he who fails to plan, plans to fail.”
I will let the numbers (all net) below speak for themselves, and I suspect most will understand why the President has been steadfast in avoiding new wars.
1942 - F. Roosevelt (D) - WWII
U.S. House - Democrats lose 45 seats
U.S. Senate - Democrats lose 8 seats
Roosevelt gained in both chambers in 1934, his first midterm.
1950 - Truman (D) - Korea
U.S. House - Democrats lose 28 seats
U.S. Senate - Democrats lose 5 seats
1966 - L. Johnson (D) - Vietnam
U.S. House - Democrats lose 47 seats
U.S. Senate - Democrats lose 3 seats
1970 - Nixon (R) - Vietnam
U.S. House - Republicans lose 12 seats
U.S. Senate - Republicans gain 2 seats
1974 - Ford (R) - Vietnam
U.S. House - Republicans lose 48 seats
U.S. Senate - Republicans lose 4 seats
Combat forces had been removed at this point and the full withdrawal was nearly complete, but with some forces still present in a war that won’t end and the Watergate scandal fresh, this midterm was a disaster for the GOP.
2002 - G.W. Bush (R) - GWOT (Afghanistan)
U.S. House - Republicans gain 8 seats
U.S. Senate - Republicans gain 2 seats
One of the three examples since 1934 in which the President’s party gained in the House. GOP took a clear Senate majority thanks to a good slate, and gained in the House thanks to increased demand for national security after 9/11, favoring Republicans, and redistricting boosts. Quagmire status in Iraq was two years away.
2006 - G.W. Bush (R) - GWOT (Afghanistan and Iraq)
U.S. House - Republicans lose 32 seats
U.S. Senate - Republicans lose 6 seats
2010 - Obama (D) - GWOT (Afghanistan and Iraq)
U.S. House - Democrats lose 63 seats
U.S. Senate - Democrats lose 6 seats
2014 - Obama (D) - GWOT (Afghanistan)
U.S. House - Democrats lose 13 seats
U.S. Senate - Democrats lose 9 seats
Conclusion
Trump lost 41 seats in the 2018 midterms from the House, and gained 2 in the Senate. While U.S. forces were still present in Afghanistan, they were vastly reduced in number and in a different security posture. It is unlikely this was the main driver for the losses in 2018.
Therefore, in 9 midterms with wartime presidents (anything more than airstrikes or a quick trip, like Grenada in 1983), here is the average damage.
Times Lost House Seats 8 of 9
Times Lost Senate Seats 7 of 9
Average Loss of House Seats 22.7
Average Loss of Senate Seats 4.1
As a reminder, the GOP majority elected last fall in the U.S. House was 220 to 215, and can stand to lose just two seats net and retain a majority.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Seth - - George "W' Bush's 2002 gain of Congressional seats seems like an outlier. It is not.
You need to factor in the John Malvo & John Muhammed: "DC Beltway Sniper" hysteria that preceded the election. in October 2002, ten random persons within the DC Triangle were killed by a sniper and several badly wounded. The media was wringing all the blood out of their broadcasts that they could. The Nation was on edge. As expected, voters moved to GOP as the party of responsibly defending the populace. Perhaps you were too young to remember or notice the populace's angst, but we oldsters saw it and recognized that we and other voters saw the need for GOP to continue to lead us through a difficult and dangerous time.
You yourself have pointed out that the incumbent President's party tends to lose seats in the midterms, war or no war.
The Democrats lost seats in 1938. No war then, at least for us.
The Democrats lost seats in 1946. No war then.
The Republicans lost seats in both 1954 and 1958. No wars then.
The Democrats lost seats in the House but gained in the Senate in 1962. We were on the brink of war but not actually in one.
The Democrats lost seats in 1978. No war then.
The Republicans lost seats in both 1982 and 1986. No wars then.
The Republicans lost seats in 1990. We were on the brink of war but not actually in one.
The Democrats spectacularly lost seats in 1994. No war then.
I would also respectfully point out that in many of your examples, other factors were at work. In 1974, for example, the War in Vietnam did not figure in the equation to any significant degree: it was all about Watergate and Ford's pardon of Nixon. In 1990, G.H.W. Bush's "Read My Hips!" blowoff of his pledge to enact "no new taxes" was the culprit. In Obama's two midterm elections, Democratic overreach was largely the culprit, especially in 2010 after the Democratic Congress rammed through ObamaCare.
So I am very surprised at this analysis, which seems...not as thoroughly thought through as what you normally write.