Minnesota - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Minnesota 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Harris +4.2% (+137,947)

My Prediction

Harris +3.0%

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Preface

As Texas is to Democrats, Minnesota is to the GOP. In fact, I think the next dictionary to define fool’s gold should consider labeling Minnesota as such regarding its relationship with the Republican Party. It always looks winnable, and then one gigantic metro area, the Twin Cities, swallows up all hope. There are several Republican states that haven’t backed a Democrat presidential nominee since 1964, but Minnesota is the longest standing “blue state,” and hasn’t backed a GOP presidential nominee since it went for Richard Nixon in 1972. Even then, it only backed him by 5.5% in a 49-state national landslide against George McGovern, considered a radical leftist for the time.

Then came Ronald Reagan, who would have certainly carried the North Star State (and swept every state) had his opponent, Walter Mondale, not hailed from there. The margin between the two candidates was a paltry 3,761 votes. Trump was razor close (-1.5%) to flipping Minnesota in 2016, but 9.6% of the vote that year went to candidates other than Trump or Clinton, producing an artificially tight finish. The 2020 election in Minnesota was an utter catastrophe, which I’ll touch on later in the report, but most of the 2020 adjustments have now been codified into law and, in my opinion, make Minnesota unplayable for GOP nominees in presidential elections until further notice.

For these reasons, my advice to anyone who would listen was for Trump to forget about campaigning in Minnesota. J.D. Vance gave it a little attention, and I wound up putting it in the category of “leaners” (states likely for one candidate but by less than 8%), and tagged it in the 2-4% window for Harris in my final prediction (or 3%, taking the average). It is apparent in reviewing the results that Minnesota’s unserious, valor stealing Governor, Tim Walz, didn’t help the ticket in his own home state, let alone nationally, after being picked as Kamala Harris’s Vice-Presidential running mate.

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Analysis

· Impressively, 84 of 87 (96.6%) counties shifted Republican in the vote from 2020, meaning Trump won them by more (including four county flips) than he did four years ago, or lost them by less, in terms of percentage margin. Only Lincoln County in the far southwest of the state, and Lake and Cook Counties in the northeastern Arrowhead Region, shifted to the left (and all three by less than a point). Minnesota, like neighboring Wisconsin, does not register voters by party, but if it did, the state would clearly have a heavy GOP registration momentum surge ongoing. Harris won just 9 counties.

· Between the three states of the Upper Midwest (Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin), 250 of 258 counties (96.9%) shifted to the Republican right by percentage margin from four years ago.

· Minnesota resembles Wisconsin in that Democrats achieve overwhelming margins in two counties that allow the party to dominate statewide elections, including presidential ones. Those counties are Hennepin County, home to core Minneapolis, and Ramsey County, which contains the state capital of St. Paul. The two counties were responsible for 32.4% of all ballots counted in Minnesota this cycle, and have produced margins like this in each of President Trump’s races:

· Trump flipped four counties – Walz’s home county of Blue Earth, Carlton, Nicollet, Winona. Trump won all of them except for Carlton in 2016. Trump’s margins outside Hennepin and Ramsey County (+12.7% over 85 outlying counties) are dominant, but not enough to overtake the Twin Cities, which are a drag on the rest of the state due to the white liberal vote, the major Democrat minority groups, and the mastery of ballot stuffing made simple through the passage of unjust election laws:

· Harris missed out on 60,098 of Biden’s 2020 ballot count, which was so high it couldn’t be replicated, and failed to match his count in 73 of 87 counties statewide. Most of her gains were minimal, except for in Wright County, where she added 2,453 ballots to Biden’s bloated 2020 count. Her net losses from 2020 in Hennepin (-29,913, -5.6%) and Ramsey (-16,452, -7.8%) Counties greatly surpass her losses in suburban counties percentage-wise, corroborating my assessment that the 2020 presidential race was a heavily tainted cheat fest. Map of 2016 through 2024 shifts is shown below:

· Minnesota is loaded out with baked in cheating thanks to the new election laws passed by the Democrat legislature (and signed into law by none other than Walz), but it is clear based on Harris’s losses there, and her devasting collapse in Iowa, that Wisconsin’s 2024 election is perhaps the worst in the country. Most of Minnesota’s 2024 election outside of the Twin Cities resembles Iowa’s three-cycle contrast, which looked nothing like Wisconsin’s, despite a lengthy history of similarity. The Iowa and Wisconsin contrast map can be seen below:

· Minnesota and Wisconsin had added or lost net ballots for the Democrat nominee simultaneously from 1976 through 2020. That 12-election streak, with Wisconsin’s Harris net gain over Biden, came to an end this year.

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Opportunities for Election Manipulation

Familiarize yourself with the grading criteria for my election ratings. Here is how Minnesota rates with regard to the most common election demerits and its own unique traits:

· Voter ID – Minnesota requires no proof of identification to cast a ballot.

· Same Day Registration – Minnesota permits same day voter registration.

· Ballot Harvesting – Ballot harvesting is allowed, but according to law, a “designated agent” (ballot harvester) can only return ballots on behalf of three people. I have no idea how this can be monitored, let alone enforced, so it goes without saying that ballot harvesting is clearly taking place in population dense areas as evidenced by the mountainous spike in Democrat ballots in the Twin Cities in the past two elections. Undercover video of ballots being sold in the Somalian parts of Minneapolis serves as hard proof of criminal activity tainting elections in the state.

· Unique Corruption – The fleabag Minnesota legislature, which comprised a Democrat trifecta (House, Senate, Governor) in the past session, passed a ton of new election reforms, none of them good - more early voting, licenses for illegals, Automatic Voter Registration, and allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to pre-register to vote. These were all passed because every Democrat in the state knows Minnesota would go the way of Iowa and Wisconsin if permitted to trend organically.

The state’s Attorney General, Keith Ellison, who barely survived his 2022 reelection bid, provided what I consider one of the greatest unintentional proofs of the fraudulence of the 2020 election, when he piped up late in the afternoon on Election Day that he didn’t think Democrats (Biden) had enough votes to defeat Trump in the state, which as a reminder hasn’t backed a GOP presidential nominee since 1972:

Apparently, Ellison didn’t get the memo that enough ballots were going to be dumped from Minneapolis, St. Paul, and other urban locales to help Biden beat Trump almost as badly as Barack Obama pounded Mitt Romney in 2012. This post has been conveniently memory-holed, but I haven’t forgotten it.

· Automatic Voter Registration – Minnesota operates Automatic Voter Registration, which is a major facilitator of fraudulent registrations, which allow for illegal balloting, especially by mail.

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The Road Ahead

President Trump was wise not to spend direct time and energy campaigning in Minnesota. It’s not that he couldn’t have won the state in a fair election, but first, it was unlikely due to the actions of Minnesota’s legislature in enshrining all the 2020 tricks and cheats, and second, it was going to fall left of Wisconsin anyway, which would mean a near-certain national victory for Trump if he won the Badger State. That would render the outcome in Minnesota moot.

Leave it to the state Republican Party to have not the foggiest idea that they must drastically improve in two counties to have a chance at winning statewide elections, with counties outside of the greater Twin Cities metro area maxed out for Trump-like candidates, which appear to be the only type who could have a puncher’s chance at winning the state. I think election fraudsters let off the gas a bit in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, thereby helping Trump close margin when combined with his organic gains in the very red hinterlands of the Northwoods, which relieved the risk of posting another ridiculously high margin, such as the certified margin for Biden in 2020 (+7.1%), and having another Ellison moment.

If Republicans can make the kind of gains in the Twin Cities that they’ve made in New York City, or even the Detroit metro, Minnesota would be much tighter. I don’t know how much of this is lack of effort, and how much of it is organic and reflective of the inability to penetrate the thick skulls of Minnesota’s vast urban white liberal population. Nevertheless, to make the state competitive, gains must occur in the urban areas while retaining the votes of the rural working class, and a major push to highlight the maliciousness of the Democrat legislature’s election reforms must precede any real change that will come only after much difficult fighting in the information space. My friend and fellow veteran Tim Zbaracki has been among the loudest voices for election reform in Minnesota.

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Final Grade and Closing Commentary

The Top 5 Election Integrity Targets in Minnesota are (in no order):

· Hennepin County

· Ramsey County

· Dakota County

· Anoka County

· Washington County

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Minnesota receives a Grade of 3 - Elevated Concern – based on horrible election laws and other demerits, evidence of manipulative conduct by statewide elected officials, and corruption of the legislature. Thanks to the new laws, it appears much of the heavy ballot count was retained in the 2024 election, but not at a level sufficient to prevent the state from moving nearly three points more Republican. Minnesota would qualify for a Grade of 4 – Highest Concern – if concentrated manipulation were evident in the 2024 race over 2020 shifts, and if I believed the state would have gone to Trump without it. I do believe that, without the recent legislative changes, Minnesota would be a toss-up state in current presidential races.

Demerits: Voter ID, Ballot Harvesting, Unique Corruption, Automatic Voter Registration

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.