My 2024 Michigan 83 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Last month, I described in detail why Michigan, a 2016 Trump state (and 2020 contested state), is the most difficult of the “Big 3” blue collar states for Trump to win, behind Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and in that order.  Polling from local outlets shows Trump with narrow leads, and even factoring in the usual nonsense polling from mainstream media, it is difficult to express the current lay of the land in the Great Lakes States as anything other than a neck-and-neck fight.

As with the other decisive states, excepting perhaps only New Hampshire, Michigan would be a layup for Donald Trump if not for the present state of election manipulation – most likely pushing double digits.  You may want to familiarize yourself with GOP margins there in the 1980s if you think I’m off my rocker with an estimate that high.  As it stands, with more than five out of six Michigan residents registered to vote – an impossible number given that only 77% of a given state’s population is over the age of 18 – winning Michigan will take a true blowout of epic proportions that not only maximizes the vote of the white working class, but syphons off the substantial black, Hispanic, and other-race (like Arabs in southeast Michigan) vote from Harris in huge quantities, limiting Democrat damage in places like Wayne, Oakland, and Washtenaw Counties.

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.  And yes, this forecast accounts for the presence and likelihood of massive election rigging.

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Crimson Counties (67)

The good news for Trump is that more than 80% of Michigan’s Counties are hardcore MAGA strongholds, falling under my “Crimson” banner.  As is the case in Wisconsin, I expect Harris’s “lid” to be Biden’s vote output in these counties in almost all cases, and there is a strong chance that with a big enough Trump gain, she won’t reach that number, edifying an already strong expansion in margin of 167,896 in my forecast.  Every county but one (Marquette) in the Upper Peninsula is “Crimson,” as is almost all Northern Michigan.

Trump will need to max this category out to have a shot at neutralizing the cheat in the southeast.  For the record, I consider Macomb County one of the most fraudulent counties pound for pound in the entire nation for the 2020 election, so there is substantial margin skimming going on in Trump-won counties as pertains to the activities of ballot traffickers.

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