My 2024 Nevada 17 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Nevada has been a thorn in the side of the Trump Train each of the past two elections, beginning with a narrow Clinton win in 2016 and then a stolen Biden win in 2020 made possible by the legalization of all known major election cheats, such as Automatic Voter Registration, and the forced universal mail election made possible through COVID fearmongering.

Nevada has been on a Republican trajectory ever since 2012 when it began coming down off Obama’s +12.6% high point four years prior.  It has a population of Latinos and blacks that, when combined, make up about 3/8 of the state’s population, which has grown tremendously in the past two decades thanks to the ongoing California exodus.  Trump can win the 2024 election without Nevada, and in my estimate, it may factor if there is trouble carrying Georgia, or both of Wisconsin and Arizona.  Paired with New Hampshire, a long shot, it could substitute evenly for Wisconsin, and nearly make up for a theft of Arizona.

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.  And yes, this model accounts for current levels of election rigging.

Party Registration Data

·      Statewide

2020 Election: D+4.7% (+87,416 Democrat registration lead)

9/1/2024: D+1.0% (+19,223 Democrat registration lead)

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Crimson Counties (15)

The good news – Crimson MAGA counties, which include the independent Carson City, constitute more than 88% of Nevada’s counties.  The bad news – they are mostly maxed out, have stagnant population growth collectively, and make up just 1/8 of the state’s vote.  They have most of their votes reported on Election Night, and then are vastly outnumbered by the two Competitive tier counties described further down in this report as they conveniently sift through ballot drop boxes until the Democrat candidates win.

Harris will likely find her lid at Biden’s in nearly all these counties, and with less turnout will fail to match his ballot count in perhaps all of them.  In a pessimistic outlook, Trump stands to enhance his margin here by an additional 13,974 from four years ago.  In other words, if he wants to win Nevada, he’s not going to do it by overwhelming Clark and Washoe from the rural and suburban counties.

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Competitive Counties (2)