My 2024 North Carolina 100 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

I profiled North Carolina nearly two months ago, and suggested Donald Trump was likely to beat Joe Biden there by 4-6%.  It was not labeled a “decisive state” then, but rather a “leaner.”  Polls were showing a comfortable Trump lead, and the four I listed in the review averaged Trump +7.

Since then, media have lied about the new Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris, and her prospects in North Carolina.  I have posted repeatedly about the state’s weekly voter registration updates that show constant progression toward the GOP in all but a handful of counties, so much so that things now look like this nearly four years after the last presidential election:

Party Registration Data

·      Statewide

2020 Election: D+5.3% (+391,414 Democrat registration lead)

8/31/2024: D+1.7% (+129,302 Democrat registration lead)

North Carolina almost has a full-blown GOP registration lead and is sitting just about where Florida was in early 2021 on its way to GOP superstate status.  It is now obvious, through the proliferation of rigged polling, that North Carolina is on the “steal” table once more, just as it was in 2020.  The state is absolutely essential to Donald Trump’s hopes in 2024, and if he holds it (the most likely of his 2020 certified states to be stolen), then he will have his “Core 235” electoral vote foundation to build on, putting him on the putting green for 270. Without it, he could win all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and still lose unless he got Arizona or Nevada with it.  That is a tall task. Trump must ensure he doesn’t get Georgia’d here, in a state that would be a blowout without modernized urban election rigging and filthy voter rolls.

Without further ado, familiarize yourself with my county classification model and dive into the North Carolina 2024 data and my preliminary forecast.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article.

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Crimson Counties (70)

70% of counties fit the Crimson mold in North Carolina, and I expect Trump to win them all by more than he did in 2020, even accounting for ballot stuffing.  Biden’s total is Harris’s lid in most of these counties, and Lenoir County at Trump +4.8% is the closest in this model.  In reality, it will be difficult for Harris to reach the lid in most of these (something to watch for), and I’ve stated Trump’s likely gains conservatively here, and in all other counties.

Trump should win these 1,673,250 to 792,311, or by a margin of 880,939 – 147,457 better than in 2020, which gives much needed breathing room for the big Democrat counties to expand both with cheating and organic growth.

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Republican Counties (5)