My Latest 2028 Registration Forecast Gives J.D. Vance 316 Electoral Votes (Q3 2025 Update)

Why voter registration by party matters, and what it tells us about how voters view issues, candidates, and worldviews with enough clarity to see the future three years out.

Much has changed in the political world since Donald Trump took office in January, but one thing that has remained constant is the steady drumbeat of Democrat registration losses – over a million net toward the GOP per my June report:

This research had made its rounds, including when I went on Sean Spicer’s show to discuss the magnitude of every single state tracking registration by party becoming more favorable to Republicans since November.

Sometime soon, pundits will be trotting out the latest polls showing whatever outcomes they’re paid to show. Midterm races are much more volatile and subject to the whims of political science and decades of history, but rest assured, registration by party is the best way to determine voter sentiment and the trajectory of future races, especially Presidential ones. How we will know if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is popular or unpopular? Easy – by watching registrations in the key states. If they run hard left, the bill and other relevant actions are not going over well with the electorate. If they run hard right, then the opposite it true, and the administration is popular. That gives coattails to others running under the brand.

For those of you new to this page and questioning my methodology – this is how my 2024 predictions went:

This model is going to be most relevant for the 2028 Presidential race. I will, of course, reference the registration data for critical House races next fall, but may vary in my predictions based on more immediate factors. For the presidential modeling, the assumption is J.D. Vance as GOP nominee, versus a generic Democrat, such as Gavin Newsom. Without further ado, let’s get started on the map of 56 races (50 states, Washington, D.C., and the five split electoral districts of Maine and Nebraska). This will be streamlined into two easy-to-read maps, and yes, my projections combine proprietary analytics and my own researched knowledge of each state’s capacity to produce a set number of counterfeit (stuffed) ballots. If you want to take a crack at that last statement, you wouldn’t be the first.

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Map One – Safe States and Leaner States

Some consider safe states to have margins of 10 or 12 points. I put mine at 8 points, because it makes it easier to consolidate by margin tiers, and 8 is a solid enough margin to be safe in less volatile races, such as quadrennial presidential races (my safe threshold is greater for the 2026 forecast thanks to midterm volatility). Those shaded in solid red or solid blue will go to Vance or the Democrat, respectively, by at least 8 points, and are therefore not worth spending energy gambling on or theorizing about. Those come out to an electoral edge of 219 to 120 for Vance.

Florida is not competitive, and is over 200,000 registrations redder than it was when Trump carried it by 13.1% last fall. You’re looking at a mid-teens blowout, and better yet, no Republican has ever carried Miami-Dade County and lost a presidential election, and it has flipped to a GOP advantage since the election. I care about it because it has direct correlation to the industrial working class states going back many decades.

Iowa, after voter roll maintenance, has also continued its GOP registration progression, and will remain in blowout territory, likely coming to resemble Missouri if this pace keeps up. As you read on you’ll see the importance of this sustained trend:

Rounding out safe electoral votes, I find it unlikely for Rhode Island to make it inside the leaner zone of 8 points, although it is on a GOP registration trend like the rest of New England.

For leaner states, we add six more, with these four going to the Democrat:

· New York (28)

· Illinois (19)

· Colorado (10)

· Maine Statewide (2)

And these two going for Vance:

· North Carolina (16)

· Arizona (11)

Illinois doesn’t register by party but mirrors the movement of the rest of the Midwest, which is right-trending. It is likely to approach the safe-leaner threshold at this rate, especially if urban shifting keeps up. New York, Colorado, and Maine Statewide show a slight GOP lean after a Republican shift in the 2024 election, and while the latter is already in the leaner category, New York and Colorado could be heading there as well. They won’t flip, but they’ll tighten. New York inside 8 points all but guarantees a national popular vote win and the likelihood other key states will follow its shift.

Arizona is good to go for Vance (likely at 7%+), who will have no trouble picking up the finicky Maricopa LDS vote, based on continued registration gains in every county since November:

Likewise, all 100 counties in North Carolina are redder (or less blue) than they were in November, and it is making its way into leaner territory (5% plus):

The score after the safe and leaner states is 246 to 179 for Vance. Any person with a basic knowledge of presidential elections should be able to peg these 45 races.

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Map Two – Decisive States and Fringe Flips

From the logical starting point of the true contest, Vance needs just 24 electoral votes to stitch up the race. This should tell you exactly why we are pissed off about the botched 2020 Census and the fact that the Republican nominee should be able to knock over Georgia, call it a night, and walk right into the Oval Office.