Nevada - Final 2024 Prediction

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

November 2, 2024

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My second final prediction for the eight battleground states of 2024 is for Nevada.

This state is generally considered the furthest left of the main battlegrounds, although I also have New Hampshire in my set of decisive states, which is probably slightly left of the Silver State.  Nevada will not likely tip the race for Trump but can combine with Arizona for a win if Trump wins Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but not Georgia.  It can also be paired with New Hampshire on a long shot to make up for ten electoral votes lost elsewhere.

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Party Registration

2020 – D+4.7% (D+87,416)

2024 – D+0.5% (D+9,020)

Net Shift – R+4.2% (R+78,396)

16 of 17 county equivalents in Nevada are shifted Republican since 2020, with Eureka County serving as a curious exception, but only thanks to the dilution caused by Automatic Voter Registration.  Simply put, every county is on a MAGA swing, and now the vaunted Democrat firewall is in shambles.  A recent voter roll purge decimated the Democrat voter registration edge in Clark County, and it is showing with each passing day.

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What Harris Must Do to Win

Harris must do the same thing every Democrat since Obama in 2008 has done – weather the damage from 15 hardcore Republican counties and use Washoe (metro Reno) and Clark (metro Las Vegas) Counties to overtake them.  The two contribute seven out of every eight votes in the state and to make things worse, take advantage of lax election law to count boiler room mail ballots until they surpass the smaller counties.  Her problem is that the shift in voter registration and the movement of working-class voters, including Latinos and non-college whites, has crippled her reserves normally found in the registration lead.  The Democrat victory equation remains Washoe + Clark > Remaining 15 by any means necessary.

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What Trump Must Do to Win