November 2025 Election Predictions

Focusing on the four key states: California, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia

These are my first predictions since the April elections, which I nailed with two Republican wins in the Florida U.S. House specials, and the deflating loss of the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat to the latest faux moderate propped up by millions in outside cash invested in screwing up one of our most important political battlegrounds.

There are races all over the country, including a U.S. House special to replace Sylvester Turner in Texas, the Albuquerque mayoral election, and municipal elections in Pennsylvania, which are (spoiler alert) responsible for a slight leftward drift in Pennsylvania’s voter registration data, which you’ll get this Saturday. I am focusing on the four states people are watching most from a national perspective, and I’m going to hit the high points instead of nipping at precise margins, which aren’t very predictable given the off-year nature of these races in:

• California

• New Jersey

• New York

• Virginia

---

CALIFORNIA

Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50, which will force new U.S. House district boundaries upon the electorate intended to eliminate up to five Republican seats. California Democrats already hold 43 of 52 seats, a higher percentage than Texas Republicans will hold of their own seats even if they pick up five seats they are eyeballing. It is truly a disgusting overreach and disenfranchisement effort.