Pennsylvania - Final 2024 Prediction

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

November 3, 2024

---

My fifth final prediction for the eight battleground states of 2024 is for Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania feels like it is going to be the tipping point state this year, and both campaigns know it; in fact, if North Carolina is as solid for Trump as I think it is, and he flips Georgia back, or instead grabs both Arizona and Nevada, Pennsylvania gets him to exactly (if just North Carolina and Georgia) or beyond (if North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada) 270 electoral votes.

While paths to 270 technically exist without Pennsylvania, Michigan is much more corrupt and is left of Pennsylvania since 1992.  It is critical that the state’s Soviet-style voter suppression tactics are overcome on Election Day, which is going to dish out the vast majority of Pennsylvania’s votes.

---

Party Registration

2020 – D+7.5% (D+685,818)

2024 – D+3.1% (D+281,091)

Net Shift – R+4.4% (R+404,727)

Pennsylvania has continued its incredible registration shift over the past 16 years years by posting the largest four-year shift on record.  It has moved from D+14.2% in 2008, when it gave Barack Obama the largest win in the state since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 national landside, to just D+3.1% today.  Democrats have lost over 200,000 net registrations since the 2020 quasi-election, and 64 out of 67 counties are more favorable for the GOP than they were four years ago.  The only three that have any leftward trajectory at all are Delaware, Montgomery, and Cumberland Counties.  Philadelphia County’s Democrat atrophy has been severe, with over 50,000 fewer Democrats registered than in 2020.

---

What Harris Must Do to Win

On paper, there is practically no path to victory for Harris, especially when analyzing the shift in party registration; however, with Pennsylvania operating Automatic Voter Registration, passing around lots of mail-in ballots, and already permitting voter suppression in Republican-heavy areas, she has a glimmer of hope, even if it is faint.  Her victory hinges not only on posting overwhelming margins in Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties, but skimming Trump’s margins in the rest of overwhelmingly Crimson Pennsylvania.  Based on how mail-in returns have been coming in from the minority-heavy areas she needs to win, it is clear she is not where she wants to be with Election Day right around the corner:

---

What Trump Must Do to Win