Previewing State of the Union 2026

The President won’t be reading from a list of X comments, that’s for sure.

Tomorrow night’s address will be the first official “State of the Union” for Donald Trump’s second term, and given that such addresses serve as free advertising for the President’s agenda, you will get a great opportunity to see how the events, policies, and developments of the past 13 months have truly registered with the electorate. There exists a sharp divide between the opinions of the perpetually online, especially on X, and those of the general electorate - and I am not convinced all the bellyaching on social media fueled by algorithms represents the sentiment of the standard voter.

Without further ado, here are five things to look for tomorrow night as President Trump addresses the nation:

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I. Improving Economy

Republicans definitely got the memo a few months ago during the government shutdown. I like to say the upcoming midterm elections are Greg Maddux elections, not Nolan Ryan elections - meaning we will need craftiness and the ability to change speeds instead of an overwhelming fastball (cunning strategy instead of overwhelming red-meat turnout). Indeed, the electorate views immigration and border security as under control or being addressed, and therefore not atop the pile of issues for November (although this could change based on the developing situation in Mexico).

The economy showed signs of rebounding at the end of 2025, posting a +4.4% GDP growth for Q3 (which slowed in Q4 thanks to the shutdown), and perhaps most intriguing, the first expansion of the manufacturing sector in a year last month. The White House is banking on economic growth, stabilized inflation, and lower costs of living to be competitive in the midterms. Expect President Trump to spend time talking about his tariffs, the benefit of said tariffs to the people, and his frustration about the Supreme Court upending many of those he had in place in their decision last week.

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II. Borders, Security, and Crime