Previewing State of the Union 2026

The President won’t be reading from a list of X comments, that’s for sure.

Tomorrow night’s address will be the first official “State of the Union” for Donald Trump’s second term, and given that such addresses serve as free advertising for the President’s agenda, you will get a great opportunity to see how the events, policies, and developments of the past 13 months have truly registered with the electorate. There exists a sharp divide between the opinions of the perpetually online, especially on X, and those of the general electorate - and I am not convinced all the bellyaching on social media fueled by algorithms represents the sentiment of the standard voter.

Without further ado, here are five things to look for tomorrow night as President Trump addresses the nation:

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I. Improving Economy

Republicans definitely got the memo a few months ago during the government shutdown. I like to say the upcoming midterm elections are Greg Maddux elections, not Nolan Ryan elections - meaning we will need craftiness and the ability to change speeds instead of an overwhelming fastball (cunning strategy instead of overwhelming red-meat turnout). Indeed, the electorate views immigration and border security as under control or being addressed, and therefore not atop the pile of issues for November (although this could change based on the developing situation in Mexico).

The economy showed signs of rebounding at the end of 2025, posting a +4.4% GDP growth for Q3 (which slowed in Q4 thanks to the shutdown), and perhaps most intriguing, the first expansion of the manufacturing sector in a year last month. The White House is banking on economic growth, stabilized inflation, and lower costs of living to be competitive in the midterms. Expect President Trump to spend time talking about his tariffs, the benefit of said tariffs to the people, and his frustration about the Supreme Court upending many of those he had in place in their decision last week.

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II. Borders, Security, and Crime

Trump will showcase strength, and this category is a home run. There have been over 675,000 deportations since Trump took office, and at a 3-to-1 self-deport to deport clip, about 3 million illegal aliens fewer than we had when Trump took office for the second time. Additionally, 2025 was the first year in decades native-born Americans saw better job growth than those born in foreign countries.

The increased crackdown on lawless blue cities, including those by immigration authorities, has led to a major decrease in violent crime. Some of these figures are at their lowest point in decades:

Trump is able to exert more control over borders and security than perhaps any other issue, and I’d expect him to drive this point home and highlight Democrat open border policies as a counterpoint repeatedly. Detractors will moan about “arrests” - but I don’t want “arrests,” I want convictions. Yes there needs to be justice for all of the corruption taking place in our country and for Epstein-related crimes, but not half-assed arrests with corrupt courts ready to deflect everything imaginable. That stuff takes time.

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III. The Peace President

Trump has ended eight wars or conflicts in 13 months - a matter of fact.

While these are acts of diplomatic mastery, detractors will say there is too much effort spent on the world’s problems and not enough on our own. I expect Trump will shuffle the deck tomorrow night to ensure nothing he says comes across that way. Lately, he’s been talking about the end of the ninth war, that of Russia and Ukraine.

He has to walk a fine line, because there is no shortage of conflict in the world today despite the peace achieved under his administration. We are deeply involved in Venezuela after the seizure of Nicolas Maduro, have been saber-rattling over Iran as the regime there has slaughtered protesters by the tens of thousands, and now have the potential for cartel violence to erupt within our borders since so many of those bastards are already over here. This will be classic “peace through strength” and a reminder of how America is “respected” again. Maybe even a few barbs about hockey.

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IV. Save America’s Elections

The Fulton County raid in January put corrupt election administrators on notice nationwide, and the President’s social media posts lately hint at major executive actions to go above and beyond the SAVE Act - no matter if it reaches his desk for a signature or not. I expect we will hear the President discuss the actions of corrupt states with regard to mail-in voting, ballot collection, electronic voting equipment, and corrupted voter rolls.

Trump has a plethora of information at his disposal between Kurt Olsen, White House staff, and those who have shoved more research at the administration than it knows what to do with. The blue states refusing to comply with the federal government’s requests to hand over voter rolls do as much to make the case that elections need an overhaul as anyone on our side of things does, and I expect the corruption of our elections will be framed as the only shot Democrats have at winning the House this year.

For bonus points, watch for the President to call out the circumvention of independent redistricting commissions in California, Colorado, and Virginia that make it nearly impossible to spot a path to a Republican majority if they all pass (California is a done deal).

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V. The Midterm Plea

It’s one thing to have an amazing candidate, or set of candidates, running for reelection against the grain of a midterm and in the face of massive, organized left-wing resistance. It’s another to have lukewarm retreads who are nominally better than the alternative dragging along and slowing Trump’s agenda, like we see with many Senators today on the SAVE Act.

Trump’s most Herculean task is arguably that of dragging lifer politicians along with him who are simply waiting for his time in the public eye to come and go so they can get back to schmoozing and fundraising with low expectations. Many of them enjoy being the minority party because they have nothing to do but bitch on the camera with none of the demands of governing in the majority.

The President will most definitely make the pitch to the public that they cannot afford to halt his progress and plans for the “America First” future by sitting out the midterms and allowing Democrats to waltz into Congress with a majority in one or both chambers. He will give Democrats many opportunities to beclown themselves - perhaps starting with an introduction of the U.S. Hockey team that just won the gold in the Winter Olympics. My understanding is that Hakeem Jeffries has already told Democrats to keep it together this time rather than be spotted on camera acting like the subversives they are.

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Conclusion

It takes a long time to turn around an aircraft carrier, and I suspect this will be relayed to the people - along with the realistic assessment that reshoring American industry takes time, discipline, and commitment. President Trump’s previous State of the Union addresses have always been overwhelming hits, and I don’t imagine this one will be any different. He retains a strong base of support, and watching the insane responses of radicals will only reengage the support of those who spend too much time on X getting pissed off when they should be inserting themselves into the fray to become part of the solution.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.