Race for the House 2026: 39 Seats Will Determine the Majority

From the guy who got all 56 electoral races right in the 2024 presidential election

I’ve had to explain my accuracy in the 2024 presidential election so many times, my summary is down pat.

Proprietary models aside, the presidential election comes down to 56 different races:

• 50 statewide races

• Washington, D.C.

• 5 split electoral votes of Maine and Nebraska

Those who tried to eat the entire national burrito in one bite were those who tended to be the most inaccurate. No one cared about widely skewed national margins when everyone with a brain knew the race would come down to a half-dozen states. Presidential battleground states all relate to one another in some way, and candidate behavior (where they choose to spend time, energy, and money) is an indicator few know how to value. I knew the Selzer poll (Harris +3 in Iowa) was trash not only because the registration data told the tale, but because neither Harris nor Trump spent a minute there in the heat of the campaign.

So it is with the 2026 race for the U.S. House, which is the main event everyone is watching this year. I’ve explained why the president’s party usually gets smoked in the House within these virtual pages, and despite my warnings, people are still choosing to ignore nine decades of history and give ridiculous online opinions somehow tied to a special election in Texas in which no one felt like going out to vote on a Saturday after an ice storm.

Ultimately, 435 separate races and their outcomes determine the winner of the 2026 U.S. House elections.

Everyone needs to quit with the “if Republicans lose the House, Trump is finished” nonsense. Three years ago, you’d have taken Trump’s second term if it was handed to you with the condition that Republicans will never control either chamber of Congress for four years. I don’t want the Democrats to win the House either, but history positions them as a strong, if not overwhelming, favorite. That leaves me with one option:

Sharpen the razor so much that there is zero room for error in which seats must be targeted.

Stop reading every spooky story about special elections, and don’t waste your campaign contributions on Safe Republican seats or unwinnable Democrat seats in some deep blue city they say is about to flip because someone drove a pickup truck down Martin Luther King, Jr., Boulevard with American flags waving behind. Primary wisely with electability in mind. If you’re in an overwhelmingly Trump-supporting district, feel free to shred any grifting establishment Republican in the primary, because your dog would be elected if he ran with (R) behind his name.

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Where the Race Stands Today

If you’ve heard me say recently that “neither side has a high ceiling nor a low floor,” then I’m sticking with my guns. Partisan gerrymandering has solidified the vast majority of seats in both red and blue states. I had previously told Andy Biggs last summer that I expected 85% of seats to be all but locked down, leaving 15% of the seats (about 65 seats) to decide it all. Turns out I was wrong.

39 seats, or just 9% of all seats, will determine whether the second half of Trump’s term is spent dealing with frivolous bullshit or simply tolerating a flimsy majority that doesn’t have the horsepower to get major agenda items over the top (but is better than the first option).

This means on this date, February 4, 2026, I see 396 House seats as firmly held by the incumbent or incumbent party, or easily accountable for a flip based on redrawn boundaries (like TX-9 or NC-1). With so many races, there will undoubtedly be some that get closer than expected, or maybe even flip, but I’d be shocked if that were more than a handful of races. Here is how these 396 break out:

• 201 Republican

• 195 Democrat

• 39 Decisive

You heard that right. Absent the development of a massive blue wave sweeping these forecasts out to sea, the Republicans will hold no fewer than 201 seats (meaning Democrats are capped at 234). Republicans would be capped at 240 if they won every seat I consider decisive today.

If you’re a gambling man, bet on the winner of the House holding between 220 and 229 seats.

Here is the full loadout of all 50 states and how I see things today: